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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


06 November 2012

USDA GAIN: Philippines Sugar Semi-annual 2012USDA GAIN: Philippines Sugar Semi-annual 2012

Philippine sugar production declined by seven percent to 2.24 million metric tons (MMT) in Crop Year (CY) 2011/12 (September to August) due to the prolonged rainy season. The Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) projects production for CY 2012/13 to recover by 5 percent to 2.36 MMT, barring any serious weather disturbances. Due to significantly lower beginning stocks, Post forecasts total exports for CY 2012/13 at 295,000 MT, down from CY 2011/12 when ample beginning stocks and strong demand resulted in unusually strong exports of 545,000 MT. CY 2012/13 exports to the United States under the tariff rate quota program are set at 144,901 MT but are likely to increase if the USG grants additional sugar allocations to quota holders in early 2013.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Sugar Cane for Centrifugal
Sugar, Centrifugal

Production:

According to the SRA, Philippine raw sugar production reached 2.24 MMT in CY 2011/12, seven percent lower than the previous forecast of 2.40 MMT. The decrease in production was attributed to wet conditions as a result of the prolonged rainy season. Cane production reached 23.88 MMT over the same period. Raw sugar production in CY 2012/13 is estimated to recover by five percent to 2.36 MMT with area planted remaining the same as the previous year at about 422,000 hectares.

From a high of about P1,800/50-kg bag of raw sugar in August 2012, wholesale prices have since come down to about P1,450-1,500/50-kg bag (as of October 2012). According to industry, the early start of the milling season this crop year has temporarily increased the supply of sugar in the local market and has put some downward pressure on prices.

In CY 2011/12, the average mill site price of “A” raw sugar for the U.S. market was P1,234 /50-kg bag, down 11 percent from P1,388/50-kg bag the previous year. National average mill site price for “B” raw sugar for the domestic market was P1,419/50-kg bag, down 26 percent from P1,900/50-kg bag the previous year. The average composite price was P1,346/bag, down 30 percent from the previous year’s price of P1,864/bag. Wholesale and retail prices of raw and refined sugar in Metro Manila for CY 2011/12 follow:

Domestic Raw and Refined Sugar Prices
CY 2011/12 Raw Sugar Refined Sugar
Wholesale Price (Pesos/per 50 Kg. Bag) Retail Price (Pesos/ per 1 Kg. Bag) Wholesale Price (Pesos/per 50 Kg. Bag) Retail Price (Pesos/ per 1 Kg. Bag)
September 1,457.72 40.45 1,919.02 47.10
October 1,435.68 40.34 1,864.51 46.76
November 1,393.33 38.95 1,772.96 45.41
December 1,397.61 38.35 1,814.29 44.51
January 1,390.57 37.76 1,838.16 43.92
February 1,422.35 36.72 1,851.85 43.31
March 1,518.94 36.50 1,981.01 43.73
April 1,621.96 37.37 2,060.94 45.04
May 1,621.96 38.99 2,062.77 46.34
June 1,785.24 39.84 2,258.54 47.44
July 1,787.57 42.86 2,286.51 50.82
August 1,798.33 43.25 2,273.33 50.88
Source: Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration

U.S. Dollar to Philippine Peso Exchange Rates from 2008 to September 2012 follow:

Exchange Rate 2008 2009 2010 2011 September 2012
US$=PhP 44.47 47.64 45.11 43.31 41.75
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Consumption:

Domestic sugar consumption is measured by monitoring withdrawals from the mills. Withdrawals in CY 2011/12 were up slightly to 2.03 MMT as demand by industrial users strengthened due to the lower domestic prices. Consumption is expected to increase slightly further in CY 2012/13 due to the upcoming national elections in mid-2013 (traditionally in the Philippines, there is a perceptible uptick in demand for food items that occurs in-line with national campaigns and elections). Monthly raw sugar withdrawals for CY 2011/12 follow:

Raw Sugar (Domestic) Withdrawals CY 2011/12
Month Metric Tons (MT)
September 61,458
October 111,533
November 125,636
December 159,643
January 217,870
February 214,197
March 204,341
April 243,650
May 159,065
June 190,185
July 172,863
August 169,425
TOTAL 2,029,866
Source: Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration

Monthly molasses prices for CY 2011/12 follow:

Molasses Prices CY 2011/12
Month Average Price (Pesos/MT)
September 2,600
October 2,746
November 3,013
December 3,471
January 3,545
February 4,250
March 4,558
April 4,835
May 5,122
June 5,861
July 6,322
August 6,255
Source: Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration

Trade

Due to significantly lower beginning stocks, Post forecasts total raw sugar exports for CY 2012/13 at 295,000 MT, down from CY 2011/12 when ample beginning stocks and strong demand resulted in unusually strong exports of 545,000 MT. CY 2012/13 exports to the United States under the tariff rate quota program are set at 144,901 MT Raw Value (138,827 MT Commercial Weight) but are likely to increase if the USG grants additional sugar allocations to quota holders in early 2013.

No imports are expected for CY 2012/13 due to projected adequate sugar production for the current crop year.

November 2012

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