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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


07 November 2012

USDA GAIN: Bangladesh Grain and Feed Update November 2012USDA GAIN: Bangladesh Grain and Feed Update November 2012

Post’s MY 2012/13 rice production forecast for Bangladesh has been revised marginally lower to 33.8 million tons on lower planting of Aman rice (planted in July/August). Based on official estimates, the MY2010/11 and MY 2011/12 wheat imports have been revised to 3.75 million ton and 1.77 million tons, respectively
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Production

Post has revised Bangladesh MY 2012/13 (May/April) rice production marginally lower to 33.8 million tons on lower planted area of the Aman crop. Aman rice (planted in July/August and harvested in November/December), currently in the filling stage, faced a moderate to severe shortage of monsoon rainfall and was also affected by flash floods, especially in the north and south western region at the time of planting. Consequently, area under Aman rice is estimated to be about 100,000 hectares less than the previous year and production is forecast lower at 12.6 million tons. In MY 2012/13, the first Boro rice crop (planted in December/January and harvested in May/June) is estimated at 18.8 million tons. Production of the second Aus rice crop (planted in March/April and harvested in July/August) is currently estimated at 2.4 million tons. Based on latest estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture, MY 2011/12 rice production is revised marginally lower to 33.7 million tons.

Bangladesh: Rice Area and Production by Season

The winter Boro rice crop is almost entirely irrigated, with ground water accounting for 80 percent of irrigation. Excessive use of ground water for irrigation is causing rapid depletion of ground water, which is limiting the scope for further expansion of Boro acreage. The government has been promoting cultivation of rainfed Aus rice through such incentives as subsidized inputs (seed and fertilizer). Planting of Aman rice also requires supplementary irrigation in case of late or poor monsoon rains.

Stock

Domestic procurement of Boro rice in MY 2012/13 at 1st week of October reached 900,000 tons, which is almost one hundred percent of the targeted quantity. There was no government procurement of wheat or Aus rice; however, depending on the production and price situation, the government may announce a procurement plan for Aman.

The government-held food grain stock as on October 4, 2012, is estimated at 1.59 million tons, which includes 1.28 million tons of rice and 313,000 tons of wheat. Though there is no official information available on private-sector stocks, industry sources indicate that current rice stocks in the hands of millers, traders and large farmers could be 7 million tons. The current grain stocks (government and private) are sufficient to cover the requirement before Aman rice is harvested.

Price

The retail price of coarse rice in the domestic market has been stable since last December at taka 29 ($0.36) per kilogram, 6.5 percent lower than the price a year ago. Prices are likely to remain steady through the marketing season due to sufficient domestic stocks (government and private trade) and supply of cheaper Indian rice. On the other hand, the retail price of coarse wheat flour maintained a modestly rising trend over the last year, currently selling at taka 33 ($0.41) per kilogram, more than 20 percent higher than a year ago. International wheat prices will largely determine the wheat flour price in the remainder of MY 2012/13.

Imports

Given sufficient domestic supplies, only 1,950 tons of rice has been imported in first five months of the current MY 2012/13, mostly (90 percent) by the private sector. However, market sources report subsequent higher imports of low-quality cheap rice from India. Consequently, post continues to estimate MY 2012/13 rice imports at 250,000 tons, mostly by the private sector.

MY 2012/13 (July-June) wheat imports through the second week of October are estimated at 496,000 tons, 62 percent by the private sector. Post continues to estimate MY 2012/13 wheat imports at 3 million tons, comprising of 600,000 tons by the government and 2.4 million tons by the private sector. Official wheat imports in MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 are estimated at 3.75 million tons and 1.77 million tons respectively.

November 2012

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