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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


18 October 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 18 October 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 18 October 2012

Recent frost events across many of Australia’s key grain-growing areas have prompted industry groups to encourage grain growers to inspect crops as soon as possible to gain a clear picture of the impact.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 18 October 2012

Summary of Key Issues

  • Recent frost events across many of Australia’s key grain-growing areas have prompted industry groups to encourage grain growers to inspect crops as soon as possible to gain a clear picture of the impact.
  • Some South Australian wine growers are expecting crop loss of up to 70 per cent, after wintry conditions last week have reportedly caused extensive damage to vineyards in Barossa and Clare Valleys. The full extent of damage will not be revealed until after fruit set.
  • Locust numbers in New South Wales are likely to remain low over the upcoming summer months.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 2 gigalitres this week and are at 97 per cent of total capacity.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$373 a tonne in the week ending 16 October 2012, compared with US$369 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Wheat stocks held by bulk handling companies and grain traders at the end of September 2012 were around 7.1 million tonnes, 14 per cent lower than one year earlier.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$321 a tonne in the week ending 17 October 2012, largely unchanged compared with the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$626 a tonne in the week ending 16 October 2012, compared with $631 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Wholesale prices of vegetable were generally lower in the week ended 13 October 2012, compared with the previous week.

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$373 a tonne in the week ending 16 October 2012, compared with US$369 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that wheat stocks held by bulk handling companies and grain traders at the end of the 2011-12 wheat marketing year (October to September) were around 7.1 million tonnes, 14 per cent lower than one year earlier.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$321 a tonne in the week ending 17 October 2012, largely unchanged compared with the previous week.
  • According to the Russian Federation Ministry of Agriculture, harvesting of that country’s winter and spring grain crops is largely complete with an average grain yield of 1.9 t/ha, compared with 2.3 t/ha for the last drought-affected harvest in 2010.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$626 a tonne in the week ending 16 October 2012, compared with $631 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $520 a tonne in the week ending 15 October 2012, compared with $501 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US81.1 cents a pound in the week ending 17 October 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US20.1 cents a pound in the week ending 17 October 2012, 6.2 per cent lower than in the previous week.
  • The Government of India has decided to allow sugar exports under the open general licence scheme again this year as India is likely produce more than it consumes for the third consecutive year, according to the Indian Food Ministry.

Climate

Notable Events

  • Recent frost events across many of Australia’s key grain-growing areas have prompted industry groups to encourage grain growers to inspect crops as soon as possible to gain a clear picture of the impact.
  • Some South Australian wine growers are expecting crop loss of up to 70 per cent, after wintry conditions last week have reportedly caused extensive damage to vineyards in Barossa and Clare Valleys. The full extent of damage will not be revealed until after fruit set. Meanwhile, world bulk wine prices are expected to remain strong as smaller harvests in Australia and Europe restrict supply.
  • Locust numbers in New South Wales have remained low with cold, wet weather and bacterial infection keeping the population in check. Numbers are expected to remain low over the summer months.
  • Favourable seasonal conditions of the last two years have reportedly resulted in a rapid rise in wild pig numbers across Queensland. Producers are likely to experience a rise in crop damage and grazing pressure on pastures as result of the higher pig numbers.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting average to slightly below average tropical cyclone activity for the Australian region for the period 1 November 2012 to 30 April 2013 (2012–2013 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml).

Rainfall this Week

For the week ending 17 October 2012, light to moderate rain fell over most of eastern Australia, southern South Australia and south-west Western Australia. Patchy rain fell in the country’s north. Falls exceeding 50 mm were recorded on the south coast of New South Wales and on the New South Wales – Queensland border. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 254 millimetres at Ulladulla on the New South Wales south coast. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

October 2012

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