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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


08 November 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 8 November 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 8 November 2012

Parts of the Western Australian wheat belt have received falls of up to 50 millimetres this week, which has reportedly delayed the grain harvest in many areas.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • Graziers in rangeland areas of central Australia will benefit from widespread rainfall received this week.
  • Parts of the Western Australian wheat belt have received falls of up to 50 millimetres this week, which has reportedly delayed the grain harvest in many areas.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 135 gigalitres this week and are at 95 per cent of total capacity.
  • October rainfall, averaged across southern Australia, was the lowest on record causing some expansion of long-term rainfall deficiencies (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 7 November 2012).
  • Most indicators of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are at neutral levels.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$378 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$319 a tonne for the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$622 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, falling from US$640 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in October 2012 were 94 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 12 per cent higher than the same time last year. Increased shipments to the United States, Republic of Korea, China and the Philippines offset lower exports to Japan and the Russian Federation.
  • Australian exports of butter and skim milk powder increased year on year by 20 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, for the September quarter 2012.

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$378 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$319 a tonne for the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$622 a tonne in the week ending 6 November 2012, fallen from US$640 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $558 a tonne in the week ending 5 November 2012, unchanged from the previous week and 4 per cent higher than this time last year.
  • Harvest is underway in all Western Australian winter cropping regions. The major bulk handler in Western Australia, CBH, reported on Monday (6 November 2012) that around 757 000 tonnes of grains and oilseeds had been received to that time.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US80.3 cents a pound in the week ending 7 November 2012, around 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.3 cents a pound in the week ending 7 November 2012, largely unchanged from previous week.
  • Changes to fruit wholesale prices were mixed in the week ending 3 November 2012 with rockmelon and pineapple (smoothleaf) prices increasing while watermelon (seedless) and strawberry prices were lower.
  • Vegetable wholesale prices were generally lower in the week ending 3 November 2012 with falls in the prices of pumpkin (grey bulk), tomato (field gourmet), broccoli, iceberg lettuce, cauliflower and peas (green).In contrast, the price of beans (round) increased slightly.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) rose by around 2 per cent to 352 cents a kilogram in the week ending 2 November 2012. However, young cattle prices in all other states, except Western Australia, were lower compared with the previous week.
  • Australian beef and veal production was 553 000 tonnes during the September quarter 2012, 3 per cent higher than the same quarter last year.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in October 2012 were 94 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 12 per cent higher than the same time last year. Increased shipments to the United States, Republic of Korea, China and the Philippines offset lower exports to Japan and the Russian Federation.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool averaged 1046 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 1 November 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week. The total number of bales offered for sale was the highest this season and 31 per cent higher than the previous week.
  • Australian exports of butter and skim milk powder increased year on year by 20 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, for the September quarter 2012. Exports of whole milk powder and cheese fell by 21 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, over the same period.

Climate

Notable Events

  • Graziers in rangeland areas of central Australia will benefit from widespread rainfall received this week. These falls are also likely to ease longer term rainfall deficiencies which had developed across central Australia. Some areas had recorded 157 consecutive days without rain.
  • Parts of the Western Australian wheat belt have received falls of up to 50 millimetres this week. While the rain has reportedly delayed the grain harvest in many areas, it is too early to establish if these falls will result in a reduction in grain quality in unharvested crops.
  • As the sugar cane crush in northern New South Wales draws to a close, mills are reporting this year’s crop to be the lowest in 40 years, at less than 1 million tonnes. Despite this year’s well below average cane harvest, industry representatives are predicting that record plantings for next year’s crop will see production double within the next two years.
  • October rainfall, averaged cross southern Australia, was the lowest on record causing some expansion of long term rainfall deficiencies (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 7 November 2012). The low rainfall has contributed to an expansion in the area experiencing low upper layer soil moisture throughout the southwest and southeast of Australia.
  • Most indicators of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are at neutral levels, although sea surface temperatures in the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean remain slightly warmer than normal. Combined with a declining Indian Ocean Dipole these conditions indicate there is likely to be average seasonal rainfall throughout southern Australia in coming months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 7 November 2012).

Rainfall this Week

For the week ending 7 November 2012, rainfall was concentrated across central and southern Australia, with the highest falls recorded in southeast Australia and southern Western Australia. Troughs produced localised thunderstorms across Northern Australia. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 86 millimetres at Canberra, Australian Capital Territory. For further information, click here.

November 2012

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