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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


07 December 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 6 December 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 6 December 2012


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • Rainfall in November was variable across the eastern Australia cropping zone, but extremely high across most of the cropping zone in Western Australia.
  • During the past 8-months severe rainfall deficiencies have developed across large parts of South Australia.
  • Conditions in the tropical Pacific remain neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 386 gigalitre (GL) and are at 90 per cent of total capacity.
  • This week ABARES released the December edition of Australian crop report. Total winter crop production is forecast to be around 35.1 million tonnes in 2012–13, which is a 23 per cent fall from the record production of the previous year, and around 1.1 million tonnes (3 per cent) lower than forecast in September.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$373 a tonne in the week ending 4 December 2012, compared with US$368 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$327 a tonne in the week ending 5 December 2012, compared with $331 in the previous week.
  • At the end of November 2012, accumulated US corn exports for the 2012–13 marketing year (September to August) were reported at 5.1 million tonnes, down 43 per cent from a year ago.
  • China Cotton Reserve Procurement Data as at 4 December 2012 shows the government has purchased around 3.5 million tonnes of cotton for the national reserve, 13 per cent larger than the total volume purchased in 2011-12.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder fell to US$3170 a tonne on 4 December 2012, compared with US$3276 a tonne on 20 November 2012. Cheese and skim milk powder prices declined by 1.9 per cent to US$3372 a tonne and 1.2 per cent to US$3362 a tonne, respectively. Anhydrous milk fat price increased by 4.3 per cent to US$3197 a tonne.

Climate

Notable Events

  • A series of troughs have moved across Australia during the past week, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and hail to a number of regions. There have been reports that this activity has resulted in some crop damage in north-west Victoria.
  • Abnormally high temperatures were recorded across eastern Australia during the past week (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Special Climate Statement’ 4 December 2012), with maximum and minimum temperatures 4 degrees above normal across a wide area. These conditions are likely to accelerate the ripening of crops and reduce pasture growth in affected regions.
  • November 2012 rainfall was variable across cropping zones in south eastern Australia, with below average falls recorded in many regions. In contrast, extremely high rainfall has been recorded across most of the Western Australian cropping zone. Rainfall during the 2012 Spring has ranged from severely deficient to average in the east and average to extremely high in the west. This has resulted in the replenishment of upper soil moisture in Western Australia, while upper and lower soil moisture have both declined across much of Eastern Australia.
  • During the past 8-months severe rainfall deficiencies have developed across large parts of South Australia. Shorter term (4-months) severe rainfall deficiencies are evident in South Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’ 4 December 2012).
  • Conditions in the tropical Pacific remain neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate models indicate this situation is likely to remain through the southern hemisphere summer. In contrast to the previous two summers, Australian rainfall and temperatures are unlikely to be strongly influenced by ENSO (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 4 December 2012).

Rainfall this Week

For the week ending 5 December 2012 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories. Most of the rainfall this week was a result of thunderstorm activity causing patchy rainfall totals across the nation. The highest rainfall total for the week was 155 millimetres at Warmun, about 150 km north of Halls Creek. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the Week Ending 5 December 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2012, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 5/12/2012

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • ABARES released the December edition of the Australian crop report on 4 December. Crops have held up better than expected in many winter cropping regions, given the dry conditions experienced in the past few months.
  • Total winter crop production is forecast to be around 35.1 million tonnes in 2012–13, which is a 23 per cent fall from the record production of the previous year, and around 1.1 million tonnes (3 per cent) lower than forecast in September. Production is forecast to fall in all states with the largest fall expected in Western Australia.
  • The area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to around 1.56 million hectares.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$373 a tonne in the week ending 4 December 2012, compared with US$368 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$327 a tonne in the week ending 5 December 2012, compared with $331 in the previous week.
  • At the end of November 2012, accumulated US corn exports for the 2012–13 marketing year (September to August) were reported at 5.1 million tonnes, down 43 per cent from a year ago.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$624 a tonne in the week ending 4 December 2012, compared with US$607 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $545 a tonne in the week ending 3 December 2012, compared with $535 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 82.3 cents a pound in the week ending 5 December 2012, 1 per cent higher than in the previous week.
  • China Cotton Reserve Procurement Data as at 4 December 2012 shows the government has purchased around 3.5 million tonnes of cotton for the national reserve, 13 per cent larger than the total volume purchased in 2011-12.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.5 cents a pound in the week ending 5 December 2012, 1 per cent higher than in the previous week.
  • Changes to the wholesale prices of fruit were mixed in the week ending 1 December 2012. Blueberry and strawberry prices increased, while pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless) and avocado (hass) were lower.
  • Wholesale prices of vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 1 December 2012. Prices of beans (round), peas (green), pumpkin (grey bulk), cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), broccoli and iceberg lettuce were all lower while onions (brown) were higher.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 1 per cent to 338 cents a kilogram in the week ending 30 November 2012.
  • Australian beef exports in November 2012 were 90 000 tonnes, largely unchanged from the same time last year. Increased November shipments (year-on-year) to the Republic of Korea, China and ASEAN nations offset lower exports to Japan and the United States.
  • Saleyard lamb prices rose in all states in the week ending 30 November 2012. The largest increase was in Victoria where the lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) increased by 7 per cent to 303 cents a kilogram. In other states, the indicator price rose 5 per cent in New South Wales to 339 cents a kilogram and 4 per cent in both South Australia and Western Australia to 327 and 295 cents a kilogram, respectively.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) wool price rose 1 per cent in the week ending 29 November 2012 to 1034 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction rose by 12 per cent compared with the previous sale week. The EMI has averaged above 1000 cents per kilogram for the past 7 weeks despite larger offerings coming forward at auction.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder fell to US$3170 a tonne on 4 December 2012, compared with US$3276 a tonne on 20 November 2012. Cheese and skim milk powder prices declined by 1.9 per cent to US$3372 a tonne and 1.2 per cent to US$3362 a tonne, respectively. Anhydrous milk fat price increased by 4.3 per cent to US$3197 a tonne.

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December 2012

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

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