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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


17 January 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 17 January 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 17 January 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • Bushfires continue to burn across New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia and have burnt out large areas of bushland and forests. There have been reports of stock and on-farm infrastructure losses in some affected regions but these have not been fully assessed.
  • Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA) assistance has been extended to the Warrumbungle, Gilgandra, Coonamble, Walgett, Warren and Bogan shires in New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 604 gigalitres this week and are at 77 per cent of total capacity.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$342 a tonne in the week ending 15 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • China Cotton Reserve Procurement Data shows that as at 31 December 2012, the government has purchased 75 per cent of the 2012-13 season’s domestic crop, adding around 5.14 million tonnes of cotton for the national reserve. The total volume purchased to the end of December 2012 is 66 per cent larger than in 2011-12.
  • According to Brazil Sugar Industry Association data, the cumulative cane crush in the Brazil’s Centre South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazils sugarcane) was 531.4 million tonnes in 2012-13 (April to October), around 8 per cent higher than the same period in 2011-12.
  • The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher in the week ending 12 January 2013 compared with the previous week, with the wholesale prices of iceberg lettuce, tomato (field gourmet), onions (brown) and beans (round stringless) all increasing.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$3288 a tonne on 16 January 2013, compared with US$3199 a tonne on 2 January 2013. Anhydrous milk fat and cheese prices increased by 2.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively. The skim milk powder price declined slightly to US$3552 a tonne.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool increased by 3.6 per cent in the week ending 10 January 2013 to 1111 cents a kilogram clean, compared with the last week of sales (week ending 13 December 2012). The total number of bales offered at sale was 6 per cent lower than the previous sales.

Climate

Notable Events

  • Large parts of central and southern Australia are currently under the influence of a persistent and widespread heatwave event. The hot conditions have been exacerbated by dry conditions affecting Australia since mid 2012 and a delayed start to a weak Australian monsoon (Bureau of Meteorology Special Climate Statement 43 - Interim, 14 January 2013).
  • A second high pressure system in the Great Australian Bight has brought more record high temperatures to inland and southern Australia, prolonging the heat wave event in many regions. Despite a brief respite of cooler temperatures in southern and southeast regions, high temperatures are predicted to return in coming days.
  • Demand for irrigation water has continued to increase in the Murray–Darling Basin as irrigators attempt to protect their crops from the recent hot, dry weather.
  • Below average autumn rainfall, followed by a hot start to summer has seen grazing conditions in pastoral areas decline, with conditions in large areas of western New South Wales described by the NSW Department of Primary industries as marginal. Stock water and available fodder are reportedly in decline, with many graziers preparing to buy in feed or reduce livestock.
  • Allocations to low reliability entitlements in the Victorian Campaspe system increased to 100%.
  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models forecast neutral conditions continuing into autumn 2013 (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 15 January 2013).

Rainfall This Week

For the week ending 16 January 2013, most rainfall was recorded in the tropical north and in Western Australia, with patchy falls across eastern Australia. Tropical cyclone Narelle traversed off the Western Australia coastline producing coastal falls in Western Australia and thunderstorms across the north. The highest rainfall total for the week was 202 millimetres at Point Stuart, near Darwin in the Northern Territory. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Image

Rainfall for the Week Ending 16 January 2012

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 16/01/2013

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$342 a tonne in the week ending 15 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$306 a tonne for the week ending 16 Jan 2013, compared to US$295 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$624 a tonne in the week ending 15 January 2013, compared with US$613 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$3288 a tonne on 16 January 2013 compared with US$3199 a tonne on 2 January 2013. Anhydrous milk fat and cheese prices increased by 2.7 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively. The skim milk powder price declined slightly to US$3552 a tonne.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US83.5 cents a pound in the week ending 16 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US18.8 cents a pound in the week ending 16 January 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • According to Brazil Sugar Industry Association data, the cumulative cane crush in the Brazil’s Centre South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazils sugarcane) was 531.4 million tonnes in 2012-13 (April to October), around 8 per cent higher than the same period in 2011-12.
  • China Cotton Reserve Procurement Data shows that as at 31 December 2012, the government has purchased 75 per cent of the 2012-13 season’s domestic crop, adding around 5.14 million tonnes of cotton for the national reserve. The total volume purchased to the end of December 2012 is 66 per cent larger than in 2011-12.
  • Changes to wholesale prices of fruit were mixed in the week ending 12 January 2013. The wholesale prices of watermelon (seedless) and blueberry were lower while avocado (hass), strawberry and banana (cavendish) were higher. Year-on-year changes to fruit prices were mixed with the largest increases in wholesale prices occurring for avocados (hass), rockmelon and pear (packham triumph)(Figure A). The largest fall in prices were for pear (beurre bosc) and apple (royal gala, red delicious and granny smith).
  • The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher in the week ending 12 January 2013 compared with the previous week with the wholesale prices of iceberg lettuce, tomato (field gourmet), onions (brown) and beans (round stringless) all increasing. The wholesale prices of vegetable are generally higher than the same time last year. The largest increases were for onions (brown), tomato (field gourmet) and potato (white washed) (Figure B).
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by 2 per cent to 331 cents a kilogram in the week ending 11 January 2013.
  • Australian beef and veal production over the first five months of 2012-13 was 960 000 tonnes, 4 per cent higher than the same period in 2011-12.
  • Changes to the saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 11 January 2013. Compared with the previous sales in the week ending 21 December 2012, the lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2-4) rose by 5 per cent in Western Australia and 1 per cent in New South Wales to 283 and 335 cents per kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price declined by 12 per cent in Victoria to 318 cents per kilogram and remained unchanged at 335 cents per kilogram in South Australia.

January 2013

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