TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


11 February 2013

USDA GAIN: Mexico Grain and Feed Update - February 2013USDA GAIN: Mexico Grain and Feed Update - February 2013

Post’s total corn production estimate for MY 2012/13 has been revised upward to 21 million metric tons (MMT) due to more harvested area and relatively favorable weather conditions. Several Mexican states planted approximately 106,000 hectares (ha) more sorghum than initially expected during the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle as relatively good weather conditions provide incentive to increase planted area leading to a higher production estimate for MY 2012/13. Official source stated that although the rainy season in 2012 wasn’t great, it was substantially better than the previous season when Mexico was adversely affected by a severe drought.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Mexico City

Executive Summary:

Corn

Production

Post’s total corn production estimate for MY 2012/13 (October to September) has been revised upward from USDA/Official estimate to 21 MMT, due to more complete data from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). Corn output was increased due to higher than expected harvested area and relatively favorable weather conditions. Official source stated that although the rainy season was irregular, it was substantially better compared to last season, when Mexico was adversely affected by a severe drought. They estimate that the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle, which is almost finishing, could reach 16.2 MMT. At the same time, the expectation for the current 2012/13 fall/winter season is optimistic as they expect it will reach approximately 4.8 MMT. Although media outlets have highlighted a cold front and a winter storm affected large areas of Sinaloa’s corn in mid-January 2013, official sources have stated that preliminary estimates show that the impact was not more than 35,000 ha (roughly 10 percent of total corn planted area) of which only partial damage actually occurred. It is important to note that Sinaloa farmers planted 371, 000 ha of corn in the 2012/13 fall/winter crop cycle. The Post/New total production and harvested area estimates for the MY 2011/12 have been adjusted slightly upward based on SAGARPA final information.

Trade

The Post/New total corn import estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been revised downward, based on updated data from the Global Trade Atlas and discussions with official contacts. Similarly, export estimated for MY 2011/12 has been decreased slightly to 685,000 MT based on updated trade data. Industry contacts have informed that the higher level of exports, compared with previous years, was as consequence that corn growers from Sinaloa and Jalisco decided not to participate in the governmental Forward Contract program, in the first months of 2012. Reportedly, these growers were speculating to obtain higher farm gate prices. However, as they did not obtain it requested GOM assistance. In the end, the GOM did help the farmers locate a market for their grain with virtually all of it going to Venezuela. Also, the Post/New export estimate for MY 2010/11 was revised downward from USDA/Official figures to reflect updated data from official government sources.

Consumption

The total corn consumption estimate for MY 2011/12 has been lowered from USDA/Official estimate based on information obtained from SAGARPA and industry contacts. These contacts stated that the high domestic corn prices provoked a rationing of FSI corn demand.

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2012/13 is higher than the USDA/Official estimate (1.22 MMT) as a result of higher than previously estimated domestic production. Also, the Post/New ending stocks for MY 2010/11 has been revised downward from USDA/Official estimate due to lower than previously estimated imports. For MY 2011/12, the Post/New ending stocks estimate was revised downward to 1.265 MMT, due to lower imports than previously forecast.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Table 1. Mexico: Corn Production, Supply and Demand for MY 2010/11 to MY 2012/13

Sorghum

Production

The Post/New sorghum production estimate for MY 2012/13 (October/September) has been revised upward as harvested area was higher than expected and above-normal precipitation provided beneficial soil moisture to boost yields for the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle. According to official sources, several Mexican states (Guanajuato, Michoacan and Sinaloa) planted approximately 106,000 hectares (ha) more sorghum than initially expected during the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle as relatively good weather conditions provide incentive to increase planted area. Similarly, in Tamaulipas the damaged area due to adverse weather conditions was 50 percent lower compared with the same crop cycle a year early (102,000 ha). As a result, industry sources now estimate that the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle could produce approximately 3.6 million metric tons (MMT) of sorghum whereas in the previous crop cycle, Mexico harvested only 3 MMT. This 2012 spring/summer crop cycle will account for approximately 53 percent of total sorghum production whereas the remainder of the crop will come from the 2011/12 fall/winter cycle. (NOTE: Growers traditionally plant their spring/summer crop from April to September and harvest from October to the following March, with the peak of the harvest in November – December with 64 percent of total production).

Trade

In comparison with the USDA/Official estimate, the Post/New import estimates for marketing years (MY) 2010/11 and 2011/12 have been increased and decreased, respectively, based on final data from the Global Trade Atlas.

Stocks

Ending stocks for MY 2012/13 have been revised upward to 466,000 MT due to higher than previously estimated domestic production for this year. Also, the Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2010/11 is 7.3 percent higher than the USDA/Official estimate. The difference arose from larger import volumes than previously estimated. This is reflected in the upward adjustment to MY2011/12 carry over as well. Similarly, Post's MY 2011/12 ending stocks estimate was revised slightly lower to 466,000 MT due to lower than previously estimated imports.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Table 2. Mexico: Sorghum Production, Supply and Demand; MY 2010/11 to MY 2012/13

Dry Beans

Production

The Post dry bean production estimate of 1.1 MMT for MY 2012/13 (January to December) has been revised slightly downward 20,000 MT, reflecting the latest Mexican government data published by SAGARPA. This information shows lower than expected harvested area. Moreover, government contacts advised that since September 2012, the rainy season has been irregular in the main bean producing states of Zacatecas, Durango and San Luis Potosi. As a result, this has adversely impacted the yields initially expected. Official sources now estimate that the 2012 spring/summer crop cycle will produce approximately 790,000 MT of edible beans, significantly lower than the initial estimate of 900,000 MT. As usual, this spring/summer crop cycle will account for approximately 73 percent of total dry edible bean production whereas the remainder of the crop will come from the fall/winter cycle.

Trade

The Post dry bean import and export estimate for MY 2012 and 2013 have been revised upwards and downward, respectively, based on final official information from the General Customs Directorate of the Secretariat of Finance (SHCP) and SAGARPA. It should be noted that from the total 2012 dry bean imports, approximately 10.4 percent originated from China. On January 13, 2012, Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy (SE) announced a total of 100,000 MT of dry beans to be imported duty-free under a tariff rate quota (TRQ) from authorized countries which included China. This TRQ was later raised to 150,000 MT to make up for the short domestic supply caused by a record drought (see 2012 GAIN reports MX2003 “Mexico Looks to Increase Imports of dry Beans” and MX2008“Mexico Looks to Source More Beans”).

Stocks

The Post/New ending stocks estimate for MY 2012/13 has been revised upward to 172,000 MT due to higher than previously estimated imports and lower than previously estimated exports.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Table 3. Mexico: Dry Beans Production, Supply and Demand; MY 2010/11 to MY 2012/13

Rice

Production

The Post/New total rice production estimate for MY 2012/13 (October to September) has been revised upward from USDA/Official estimates to 191,000 MT (rough production) reflecting the most recent data from SAGARPA. The slightly increase in rough rice production is equivalent to 131,000 MT of milled rice. According to industry contacts, rice output was increased due to higher yields than previously forecast. They stated that despite the fact the rice planted area has declined in the last few years in the main producing states (Campeche, Tabasco and Veracruz) only the rice growers using better technology and, thus, higher yields levels have continued planting. Similarly, production and harvested area estimates for MY 2011/2012 have been adjusted slightly upward from USDA/Official estimates based on SAGARPA final information.

Trade

In comparison with the USDA/Official estimate, the Post/New import estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 have been adjusted upward and downward, respectively, based on final data from the Global Trade Atlas. Similarly, export estimates for MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 were revised downward reflecting updated information of the Global Trade Atlas.

Consumption

Post/New MY 2012/13 rice consumption estimate has been revised upwards from 830,000 MT to 845, 000 MT based on new information from industry sources and SAGARPA officials. Similarly, the Post/New MY 2011/12 rice consumption estimate has been revised downward by 45,000 MT to 800,000 MT based on this new information.

Stocks

For MY 2012/13, the Post/New ending stocks estimate has been revised upward from 150,000 MT to 158,000 MT, due to an expected increase in domestic production. As a result of new trade and domestic production information, the Post/New MY 2010/11 and MY 2011/12 ending stocks estimates have been increased from the USDA/Official estimates.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Table 4. Mexico: Rice Production, Supply and Demand for MY 2010/11 to MY 2012/13

Wheat

Production

Post's MY 2012/13 (July/June) wheat harvested area and production estimates have been revised slightly downward from USDA/Official forecasts based on updated information from Mexican government contacts, which reflects lower than previously estimated planted area. They advised that the area planted in 2012/13 fall/winter crop cycle in Baja California and Sonora was slightly lower than initially planned.

Trade

Post's wheat import estimate for MY 2011/12 has increased slightly (by 47,000 MT) from the USDA/Official estimate. These figures are based on final data from the official government statistics.

Stocks

Post's ending stocks estimate for MY 2011/12 has been revised upward to 442,000 MT from the USDA/Official estimate, due to higher than previously estimated import volumes. It was reflected in the carry over for the MY 2012/13 which was also adjusted upward.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Table 5. Mexico: Wheat Production, Supply and Demand for MY 2010/11 to MY2012/13

February 2013

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors

Partners