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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


07 March 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 7 March 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 7 March 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • Rainfall in February 2013 was average to below average in south west Western Australia and across the north of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Rainfall was above average to extremely high in north-west Western Australia, along the east coast of New South Wales and in southern Queensland.
  • Summer 2012–13 rainfall was generally below average across Australia with the exception of most of Western Australia and a strip along the east coast that recorded above average rainfall.
  • Despite ongoing flooding along the east coast causing hardship for some farming enterprises, the widespread rainfall should promote pasture growth.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 72 gigalitres and are at 68 per cent of total capacity.
  • ABARES released its Agricultural Commodities report on 5 March at the Outlook 2013 conference. The report contains agricultural commodity forecasts for 2012–13 and 2013–14 and projections to 2017–18.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$318 a tonne in the week ending 5 March 2013, compared with US$322 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in February 2013 were 81 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 2 per cent higher than February 2012. There were record monthly beef and veal shipments to China of 12 000 tonnes. Exports to Japan, the United States and Republic of Korea were lower compared to February 2012.
  • The Global Dairy Trade weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$4298 a tonne on 5 March 2013 compared with US$3654 a tonne on 19 February 2013. The cheese price increased by 8 per cent to US$3827 a tonne. The price of anhydrous milk fat and skim milk powder prices increased by around 5 per cent.
  • The saleyard lamb prices rose in the eastern states in the week ending 1 March 2013. The largest rise occurred in Victoria where the lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 11 per cent to average 423 cents per kilogram.
  • The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 2 March 2013. The prices of bean (round), broccoli, cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), iceberg lettuce and pumpkin (grey bulk) were lower than the previous week.

Climate

Notable Events

  • For the week ending 6 March 2013, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty brought heavy rainfall to central Western Australia early in the week, while the east coast received persistent heavy rainfall towards the end of the week.
  • Despite the heavy falls on the coast causing hardship for some farming enterprises, there has been welcome widespread rainfall of between 50 and 70 millimetres in inland regions of New South Wales and Queensland during the past week. This rain will provide moisture for pasture growth.
  • Rainfall in February 2013 was average to below average in south west Western Australia and across the north of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Rainfall was below average in central Queensland and northern New South Wales. Above average to extremely high rainfall was recorded in north-west Western Australia associated with ex-Tropical Cyclone Rusty, and along the east coast of New South Wales and southern Queensland.
  • Summer 2012–13 rainfall was generally below average across Australia with the exception of most of Western Australia and a strip along the east coast that recorded above average rainfall.
  • The recent summer season was the warmest on record for Australia, with record high maximum and mean temperatures for the season. Minimum temperatures were also above average.
  • In Queensland, minor to moderate flood warnings are current for the:
    • Lower Thomson River and Cooper Creek
    • Macintyre and Weir Rivers
    • And the Moonie River

      A minor to major flood warning is current for the:
    • Boyne, Kolan and Baffle Creek
    • Burnett River
    • Condamine and Balonne Rivers
    • Don, Dawson, Connors and Lower Isaac Rivers

    Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
  • In New South Wales, minor flood warnings are in place for many north coastal catchment river systems. A minor to moderate flood warning is in place for Wollombi Brook in the Hunter region.
  • Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements have been extended to cover 17 New South Wales local government areas affected by the east coast severe weather and flooding event starting 23 February 2013.
  • The recent storms and flooding in coastal New South Wales and Queensland have caused infrastructure damage and affected production for some farming enterprises in the region. Macadamia crop prospects for this coming season are reported to have been downgraded 15 per cent due to storm events. Disaster assist website.
  • 7-month and 11-month rainfall deficiencies remain across large parts of South Australia and some inland areas of New South Wales and Victoria (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 7 March 2013).

Rainfall this Week

For the week ending 6 March 2013, moderate to heavy falls were received over large parts of Australia. The highest rainfall total for the week was 708 millimetres at Mooral Creek north of Taree in New South Wales. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the Week Ending 6 March 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 06/03/2013

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The March 2013 issue of Agricultural commodities was released on 5 March at ABARES Outlook 2013 conference and contains agricultural commodity forecasts for 2012–13 and 2013–14 and projections to 2017–18.
  • Under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions, ABARES forecast export earnings from farm commodities to be around $35.6 billion in 2013–14, slightly lower than a forecast $35.9 billion in 2012–13.
  • Over the medium term (to 2017–18), the value of farm exports is projected to decline, but remain at relatively high levels in real terms. By 2017–18, the value of farm exports is projected to be around $33.7 billion (in 2012–13 dollars), which is marginally higher than the average of $33.1 billion (also in 2012–13 dollars) in the five years to 2011–12.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$318 a tonne in the week ending 5 March 2013, compared with US$322 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$308 a tonne for the week ending 6 March 2013, compared with US$302 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$623 a tonne in the week ending 5 March 2013, compared with US$629 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder increased to US$4298 a tonne on 5 March 2013 compared with US$3654 a tonne on 19 February 2013. The cheese price increased by 8 per cent to US$3827 a tonne. The price of anhydrous milk fat and skim milk powder prices increased by around 5 per cent.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) increased by around 3 per cent in the week ending 6 March 2013 to average around US92 cents a pound.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US18.2 cents a pound in the week ending 6 March 2013, around 1 per cent higher than in the previous week.
  • Chinese customs data indicates that China imported 457 000 tonnes of cotton in January 2013, around 40 per cent more than in the same month of 2012. From August 2012 to January 2013, China imported 1.83 million tonnes of cotton, 8.6 per cent less than during the same period a year earlier.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 340 cents a kilogram in the week ending 1 March 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in February 2013 were 81 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 2 per cent higher than February 2012. There were record monthly beef and veal shipments to China of 12 000 tonnes. Exports to Japan, the United States and Republic of Korea were lower compared to February 2012.
  • The saleyard lamb prices rose in the eastern states in the week ending 1 March 2013. The largest rise occurred in Victoria where the lamb indicator price (18-22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 11 per cent to average 423 cents per kilogram. In New South Wales and South Australia, the indicator price increased by around 10 per cent to average 444 cents per kilogram and 404 cents per kilogram, respectively.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 1 per cent in the week ending 28 February 2013 to 1109 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale decreased by 10 per cent compared with previous week.
  • The wholesale prices of fruit were generally higher in the week ending 2 March 2013. The wholesale prices of avocado (hass), banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), blueberry and watermelon (seedless) were higher than the previous week while strawberry prices were lower.
  • The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally lower in the week ending 2 March 2013. The prices of bean (round), broccoli, cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet), iceberg lettuce and pumpkin (grey bulk) were lower than the previous week.

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March 2013

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