TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook


15 March 2013

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - March 2013USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - March 2013


USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

US Sugar March 2013

On March 8, 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) its latest sugar supply and use estimates/projections for Mexico and the United States for fiscal years (FYs) 2012 and 2013. Also on March 8, but after the release of the March 2013 WASDE, the Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azucar (Conadesuca) updated its estimate of the 2012/13 Mexico supply and use balance.

Conadesuca projects 2012/13 sugar production at 6.247 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 578,682 mt over its initial forecast. Details behind the forecast were not immediately available. The USDA had increased its forecast by 221,938 mt to 5.890 million mt. Conadesuca increased its forecast of deliveries for human consumption by 203,100 mt to 4.403 million mt. The USDA forecast, based on publicly available delivery data, is 4.200 million mt. Conadesuca projects ending stocks at 1.189 million mt. The stocks-toconsumption ratio is 27.0 percent, about 5 percentage points above the optimum 22.0- percent level. Conadesuca projects exports at 1.527 million mt, while the USDA projects exports at 1.370 million mt – lower than Conadesuca by 157,000 mt.

The USDA decreased its projection of FY 2013 U.S. sugar production from last month by 60,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 9.160 million STRV, due to lower expected production in Florida. Based on reliable information conveyed to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the USDA increased its projection of the sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) shortfall by 50,000 STRV to 400,000 STRV. The USDA increased its forecast of sugar from Mexico to 1.589 million STRV, an increase of about 200,000 STRV. Total sugar imports are projected at 2.978 million STRV. The USDA made no WASDE changes for sugar use. Ending sugar stocks are projected at 2.358 million STRV. The implied ending stocks-to-use ratio is 20.0 percent.

Sugar and Sweeteners in the North American Free Trade Area

On March 8, 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) its latest sugar supply and use estimates/projections for Mexico and the United States for fiscal years (FYs) 2012 and 2013. Also on March 8, but after the release of the March 2013 WASDE, the Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azucar (Conadesuca) updated its estimate of the 2012/13 Mexico supply and use balance.

Sugar and Sweeteners in Mexico

Conadesuca projects 2012/13 sugar production at 6.247 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 578,682 mt over its initial forecast. Details behind the forecast were not immediately available. The USDA had increased its forecast by 221,938 mt to 5.890 million mt. The USDA had based its forecast on the original parameter estimates maintained by Conadesuca but had incorporated upward variation in those parameter estimates based on its analysis of harvest data through March 2. The upper limit of the USDA analysis had indicated production possibly as high as 6.342 million mt.

Conadesuca increased its forecast of deliveries for human consumption by 203,100 mt to 4.403 million mt. As with production, no details were available. The latest monthly delivery data are available only through December 2012, the same as data that were publicly available last month. Conadesuca projects high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption at 1.541 million mt, dry weight. This forecast is 94,000 mt lower than the USDA forecast.

Conadesuca projects ending stocks at 1.189 million mt. The stocks-to-consumption ratio is 27.0 percent, about 5 percentage points above the optimum 22.0 percent level. The USDA had increased its stocks-to-consumption ratio to 25.0 percent. Conadesuca projects exports at 1.527 million mt, while the USDA projects exports at 1.370 million mt – lower than Conadesuca by 157,000 mt.

The sugarcane harvest in Mexico continued its strong performance through the first week of March. Through March 2, 2013, a total of 365,073 hectares had been harvested, producing 31.620 million mt of sugarcane and 3.481 million mt of sugar. Sugar production is about 23 percent higher than the average for the same period for the previous 5 years. Figure 1 shows weekly sugar production levels compared with corresponding period estimates for 2010/11 and 2011/12. Figure 2 shows interim sugar yields and highlights the high realized levels for 2012/13. Figure 3 shows cumulative sucrose recovery rates for 2012/13 and the two previous harvest seasons. Figure 4 shows regional sugar production through March 2. Production in the Northeast is 37.8 percent higher than its 5-year average, 27.7 percent higher in the South, and 25.7 percent higher in the Gulf region (the largest producing area in Mexico). The Pacific region (western area) is only 10.8 percent higher than the 5-year average.

Sugar Production, by Week of Harvest, 2010/11-2012/13

Source: Conadesuca.

 

Cumulative Sugarcane Yield in Metric Tons (mt) Per Hectare (ha) During Harvest Season

Source: Conadesuca.

 

Intra-seasonal, Cumulative Sugar Recovery Rates in Mexico, Recent Crop Years

Source: Conadesuca.

 

Mexico Sugar Production Through March 2, 2013, by Region, Compared with Previous 5-years

Source: Conadesuca.

US Sugar

The USDA decreased its projection of FY 2013 sugar production from last month by 60,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 9.160 million STRV (table 2). Cane sugar processors in Florida decreased their forecast of sugar production to 1.830 million STRV. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reduced its estimate of Florida sugarcane for sugar area harvested by 3,600 acres to 390,000 acres and sugarcane yield 0.9 tons per acre to 36.9 tons per acre.

Based on reliable information conveyed to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the USDA increased its projection of the sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) shortfall by 50,000 STRV to 400,000 STRV. This expected increase in shortfall is not surprising given the narrow gap of less than 3 cents per pound between the U.S. raw sugar price (Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) nearby No. 16 contract) and the world raw sugar price (ICE nearby No. 11 contract). Total TRQ sugar imports are now projected at 1.154 million STRV. The USDA increased its forecast of sugar from Mexico to 1.589 million STRV, an increase of about 200,000 STRV. Total sugar imports are projected at 2.978 million STRV.

FAS estimates sugar imports from Mexico during the first 5 months of the fiscal year at 510,308 STRV. These entries constitute 32.1 percent of expected total-year imports from Mexico.

The USDA made no WASDE changes for sugar use. Ending sugar stocks are projected as the difference between total supply (14.123 million STRV) and total use (11,765 million STRV) at 2.358 million STRV. The implied ending stocks-to-use ratio is 20.0 percent, the highest projected level since FY 2000 (21.9 percent) and FY 2001 (21.0 percent). Both of these earlier years had significant amounts of sugar inventory owned by USDA due to sugar loan forfeitures by processors.

March 2013

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors

Partners