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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


15 March 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 March 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 14 March 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • Parts of south - eastern Australia have experienced another prolonged heatwave with some areas recording temperatures more than ten degrees above average for this time of year.
  • Rainfall across parts of western Queensland this week is likely to provide improved pasture growth opportunities for some graziers .
  • El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators remain at neutral levels which is likely to continue until the end of the southe rn hemisphere autumn.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray – Darling Basin decreased this week by 5 gigalitres and are at 68 per cent of total capacity.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$315 a tonn e in the week ending 12 March 2013, compared with US$318 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 4 per cent to 353 cents a kilogram in the week ending 8 March 2013 , compared with the previous week .
  • There were mixed changes to saleyard prices of lambs in the week ending 8 March 2013 with increases in Western Australia and South Australia and falls in New South Wales and Victoria.
  • Data from the Brazil Sugar Industry Association indicates Brazil’s Central South region, which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane, had this season produced 34.1 million tonnes by the end of February 2013, 9 per cent more than the same time in 2011 – 12.
  • There were mixed changes to the whole sale prices of fruit in the week ending 9 March 2013 while the wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher.

Climate

Notable events

  • Parts of south - eastern Australia have experienced another prolonged heatwave with some areas recording temperatures more than ten degrees above average for this time of year. A cool change has passed over the region in the past 24 hours but the hot weather is expected to return and persist for the rest of March. Victoria’s bushfire season is expected to con tinue until the end of the month.
  • Despite light to moderate rainfall being recorded across much of Tasmania this week, the bushfire risk remains high in some areas with a total fire ban declared on Wednesday 13 March 2013 in response to extreme bushfire co nditions.
  • Much of southern Western Australia has received light to moderate rainfall this week with some areas recording the heaviest falls in many months. These falls are likely to provide a timely improvement to soil moisture levels in the lead up to the 2013 winter cropping season.
  • Rain also fell over much of northern and weste rn Queensland this week. T his may provide improved late season pasture growth opportunities for some graziers.
  • El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators across the tropical P acific O cean remain at neutral levels. I t is likely that this neutral state will continue until the end of the southern hemisphere autumn. The Bureau of Meteorology notes that warm waters around much of A ustralia may promote increased localised rainfall wh en coupled with favourable local weather conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap - up’, 12 March 2013).
  • In Queensland, a minor flood warning is current for the Western Rivers. Minor to major flood warnings are current for the:
    • Lower Macintyre and Weir Rivers
    • Condamine and Balonne Rivers
  • In New South Wales, a minor flood warning is current for the Paroo River at Willara Crossing. Minor to moderate flood warnings are current for the:
    • Culgoa, Bokhara and Narran Rivers
    • Barwon River at Mungindi and downstream

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 13 March 2013 , falls in excess of 25 millimetres were recorded in most states with heavy falls across northern Australia . This includes parts of the interior and areas that have experienced prolonged, dry conditions such as the Eyre Pe ninsula. Much of Victoria, New South Wales and southern Queensland re main generally dry. The highest rainfall total for the week was 291 millimetres at Horn Island in the Torres Strait. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyra in.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 13 March 2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$315 a tonne in the week ending 12 March 2013, compared with US$318 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$308 a tonne in the week ending 13 March 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$62 0 a tonne in the week ending 12 March 2013, compared with US$623 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US 93.4 cents a pound in the week ending 13 March 2013, around 1.5 per cent higher than the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US18.8 cents a pound in the week ending 13 March 2013, 3.3 per cent higher than the previous week.
  • Data from the Brazil Sugar Industry Association indicates Brazil’s Central South region, which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane, had this season produced 34.1 million tonnes by the end of February 2013, 9 per cent more than by the same time in 2011 – 12.
  • The Committee for Sust ainable Sugarcane Production in Mexico has raised its estimate of sugar production in Mexico in 2012 – 13 (November to October) to a record 6.25 million tonnes, around 8 per cent higher than the previous record achieved in 2004 – 05.
  • The Australian canola indi cator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $545 a tonne in the week ending 13 March 2013, compared with $551 a tonne in the previous week.
  • There were mixed changes to the wholesale prices of fruit in the week ending 9 March 2013. The wholesale prices of wat ermelon (seedless), strawberry, pineapple (smoothleaf) and blueberry were higher than the previous week while the prices of avocado (hass) and banana (cavendish) were lower.
  • The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher in the week ending 9 Marc h 2013 with the prices of bean (round stringless), broccoli, cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet) and iceberg lettuce increasing. The price of pumpkin (grey bulk) was largely unchanged.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C 3) increased by 4 per cent to 353 cents a kilogram in the week ending 8 March 2013 , compared with the previous week . Young cattle prices in New South Wales and South Australia also increased, by 5 per cent and 6 per cent, to 364 cents a kilogram and 301 ce nts a kilogram, respectively.
  • There were mixed changes to saleyard prices of lambs in the week ending 8 March 2013. The lamb indicator price (18 – 22kg fat score 2 – 4) rose by 11 percent in Western Australia and by 3 per cent in South Australia to average aro und 272 cents and 418 cents per kilogram, respectively. In New South Wales and Victoria, the indicator prices both declined by around 1 per cent to average 439 cents a kilogram and 418 cents a kilogram, respectively.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool increased by around 1 per cent in the week ending 7 March 2013 to 1116 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale increased by 14 per cent, compared with previous week.

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