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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


26 April 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 26 April 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 26 April 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • Cropping regions in South Australia and western Victoria recorded rainfall between 5 and 25 millimetres this week in the lead up to the winter cropping season.
  • The latest seasonal rainfall outlook for May to July 2013, indicates that drier than normal conditions are more likely across south-eastern Australia, while wetter than normal conditions are more likely across most of the north-eastern half of Australia.
  • The latest temperature outlook for the 3-month period, May to July 2013, indicates that warmer days are more likely across much of southern Australia and cooler days are more likely across south-east Queensland and the border region between Northern Territory and Western Australia.
  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to persist well into winter.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 60 gigalitres this week and are at 66 per cent of total capacity.
  • General security allocations in the NSW Macquarie Valley have increased to 64 per cent of entitlement.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$635 a tonne in the week ending 23 April 2013, compared with US$630 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 10 per cent in the week ending 19 April 2013 to 308 cents a kilogram.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool was 1005 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 18 April 2013, compared to 999 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The total number of bales offered at sale was 17 per cent less than the previous week.

Climate

Notable Events

  • Cropping regions in South Australia and western Victoria recorded rainfall between 5 and 25 millimetres this week in the lead up to the winter cropping season. Following an extended dry period, this rainfall is likely to disrupt planned dry-sowing programs, with many growers now likely to delay planting activities until they receive sufficient follow up rainfall.
  • The rainfall received during the week across southern Australia is expected to assist crop producers undertake weed control programs before planting commences. The falls are likely to promote the germination of autumn weeds and crop volunteers and thus provide growers with the opportunity to spray knockdown herbicides to reduce weed burden and reliance on more expensive in-crop herbicides.
  • The latest seasonal rainfall outlook May to July 2013, indicates that drier than normal conditions are more likely across south-eastern Australia over the next three months. In contrast, wetter than normal conditions are more likely across most of the north-eastern half of Australia, with the highest probabilities of 70 to 80 per cent in north-east New South Wales and southeast Queensland (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, 23 April 2013).
  • The latest temperature outlook for the 3-month period, May to July 2013, indicates that warmer days are more likely across much of southern Australia and cooler days are more likely across south-east Queensland and the border region between Northern Territory and Western Australia. Warmer than normal night-time temperatures are more likely across most of the continent during the same period (Bureau of Meteorology National Temperature Outlook, 23 April 2013).
  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to persist well into winter. Neutral ENSO conditions have been apparent since mid 2012. While models are known to have lower predictive ability for the April to June period, all of the surveyed models are consistent in their outlooks (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 23 April 2013).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 24 April 2013, rainfall was mainly recorded in southern Australia and along the east coast. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 231 millimetres at Ulladulla, on the south coast of New South Wales. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for The Week Ending 24 April 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 24/04/2013

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$321 a tonne in the week ending 23 April 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$281 a tonne for the week ending 24 April 2013, compared with US$284 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$635 a tonne in the week ending 23 April 2013,compared with US$630 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $566 a tonne in the week ending 24 April 2013, compared with $571 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 92.1 cents a pound in the week ending 24 April 2013, slightly lower than in the previous week.
  • According to the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, the Chinese government purchased 6.3 million tonnes of cotton from local farmers, around 93 per cent of the 2012–13 season’s domestic crop.
  • The Indian Cotton Advisory Board has upwardly revised its cotton production estimate for the 2012–13 season (October/September) by 3 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US17.7 cents a pound in the week ending 24 April 2013, marginally lower than the previous week.
  • China Sugar Association data shows China produced 11.9 million tonnes of sugar in the first six months of 2012-13 season (October/September), 10.4 per cent higher compared to the same period a year ago. Cane sugar production rose by 11 per cent to 10.8 million tonnes while beet sugar output was up by 8 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes, from a year ago.
  • In the first nine months of 2012-13, Australian milk production fell by 1.7 per cent compared to the same period last year. The largest declines were in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania which fell 5.7 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively. Milk production in Victoria and Western Australia declined by 1.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, while production in New South Wales was marginally lower.
  • The changes to wholesale prices of fruit were mixed in the week ending 19 April 2013. Wholesale prices of blueberry, strawberry and watermelon were higher, while pineapple (smoothleaf) and kiwifruit (hayward) were lower than the previous week.
  • The changes to wholesale prices of vegetables were mixed in the week ending 19 April 2013. Wholesale prices of cauliflower and tomato were higher, while bean (round), broccoli and iceberg lettuce prices were lower than the previous week.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 10 per cent in the week ending 19 April 2013 to 308 cents a kilogram.
  • Saleyard lamb prices fell in most states in the week ending 19 April 2013. The largest decline occurred in New South Wales where the lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) declined by 5 per cent to average 383 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the lamb indicator price in South Australia rose by 5 per cent to average 404 cents a kilogram.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool was 1005 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 18 April 2013, compared to 999 cents a kilogram in the previous week. The total number of bales offered at sale was 17 per cent lower than the previous week.

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April 2013

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