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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


07 June 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 6 June 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 6 June 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of Key Issues

  • May rainfall was generally average or above average across much of Australia.
  • Average rainfall during May 2013 across much of the east Australian wheat-sheep zone has done little to elevate upper layer soil moisture deficiencies across New South Wales.
  • Many grain growing regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia received rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres during the past week.
  • Neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole is negative and is likely to remain negative during winter and spring, which will increase the chances of above average rainfall over southern Australia in winter and spring.
  • There are reports of some locust damage to early sown winter crops in the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 255 gigalitre (GL) and are at 68 per cent of total capacity.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 3 per cent in the week ending 31 May 2013 to 283 cents a kilogram.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in May 2013 were 103 000 tonnes (shipped weight) – the highest ever monthly total – and 19 per cent higher than in May 2012.
  • Australian lamb exports in May 2013 were 20 000 tonnes (shipped weight), around 16 per cent higher than in May 2012. The rise in lamb exports reflects increased shipments to the Middle East and China.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$330 a tonne in the week ending 4 June 2013, compared with US$327 in the previous week.

Climate

Notable Events

  • May 2013 rainfall was generally average or above across much of Australia. Isolated areas of below average May rainfall were recorded in all States, but were mainly concentrated in the coastal strip from central Victoria to the New South Wales – Queensland border and in western and southern Tasmania.
  • Average rainfall during May 2013 across much of the east Australian wheat-sheep zone has done little to elevate upper layer soil moisture deficiencies across New South Wales, western Victoria and southern Queensland. Meanwhile, soil moisture levels in South Australia and Western Australia remain above average.
  • Many grain growing regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia received rainfall of between 25 and 100 millimetres during the past week. However, given limited stored soil moisture levels in a number of regions, additional winter and spring rainfall will be required for crops to reach their full yield potential.
  • Neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models forecast neutral ENSO conditions will continue until the end of 2013. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been negative since mid-May and is likely to remain negative during winter and spring. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above average rainfall over southern Australia and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia. (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 4 June 2013).
  • There are reports of some locust damage to early sown winter crops in the eastern wheatbelt of Western Australia. Mild conditions over summer allowed local locust populations to survive, and recent warm weather has increased the survival of adults and late hatched nymphs coming into winter. Producers are advised to be vigilant and undertake control measures as necessary.

Rainfall this Week

For the week ending 5 June 2013, rainfall was recorded in all states and territories. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 178 millimetres at Thredbo, in the Alpine region of New South Wales. Falls of between 25 and 100 mm were widespread across most of Victoria, inland NSW and western Tasmania. There was also heavy rainfall in parts of Western Australia and southeast and central SA. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the Week Ending 5 June 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 5/06/2013

Commodities

Production and Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$330 a tonne in the week ending 4 June 2013, compared with US$327 in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$302 a tonne for the week ending 5 June 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$624 a tonne in the week ending 4 June 2013, compared with US$616 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $625 a tonne in the week ending 3 June 2013, compared with $620 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 90.5 cents a pound in the week ending 5 June 2013, unchanged from the previous week.
  • Drier conditions in the United States last week helped cotton growers speed up planting. The United States Department of Agriculture reported that as at 2 June 82 per cent of intended cotton plantings in the United States in 2013 had been completed, compared with 59 per cent the previous week. Planting progress is now 5 percentage points lower than at the same time last year and only 1 percentage point lower than the 5-year average to 2012.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US16.5 cents a pound in the week ending 5 June 2013, 1 per cent lower than in the previous week.
  • The Indian Meteorological Department announced that the Southwest Monsoon settled over Kerala on the 1 June 2013. The Monsoon has further advanced to cover the south Arabian Sea, parts of central Arabian Sea, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and southwest and west central Bay of Bengal.
  • Wholesale prices of fruit were generally lower in the week ending 1 June 2013. Wholesale prices of avocado (hass), blueberry, watermelon and pineapple (smoothleaf) were lower than the previous week.
  • Changes to the wholesale prices of vegetables were mixed in the week ending 1 June 2013. The wholesale prices of broccoli and cauliflower were lower than the previous week while the prices of iceberg lettuce, tomato (field gourmet) and beans (round) were higher.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 3 per cent in the week ending 31 May 2013 to 283 cents a kilogram.
  • Australian beef and veal exports in May 2013 were 103 000 tonnes (shipped weight) – the highest ever monthly total – and 19 per cent higher than in May 2012. Increased shipments to China, the Middle East and Republic of Korea accounted for most of this growth.
  • Changes to saleyard lamb prices were mixed in the week ending 31 May 2013. The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by 3 per cent in New South Wales and 2 per cent in Victoria to average 434 cents and 435 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price fell by 2 per cent in South Australia and 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 423 cents and 379 cents a kilogram, respectively.
  • Australian lamb exports in May 2013 were 20 000 tonnes (shipped weight), around 16 per cent higher than in May 2012. The rise in lamb exports reflects increased shipments to the Middle East and China.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 1 per cent in the week ending 30 May 2013 to 1032 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale declined slightly from the previous week.
  • The Global Dairy Trade weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat decreased to US$4478 a tonne on 4 June 2013 compared with US$4598 a tonne on 15 May 2013. Over the same period, the prices of skim milk powder and whole milk powder both fell by 2 per cent. In contrast, the price of cheese increased by 2 per cent, compared with the previous cheese sale on 1 May 2013.

June 2013

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