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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


05 July 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 4 July 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 4 July 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • June 2013 rainfall was variable across Australia. Above average rainfall was recorded across much of southeast Australia and northern Western Australia. Below average rainfall was recorded in Tasmania, most of Queensland and southern Western Australia.
  • During June 2013 upper layer soil moisture levels have improved across the eastern Australian wheatbelt, while in Western Australia soil moisture levels have declined.
  • The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is likely to remain through the 2013 winter and spring. A negative IOD can increase the chances of above average rainfall over southern Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 183 gigalitre (GL) and are at 71 per cent of total capacity.
  • Opening water allocations have been announced for a number of irrigation regions for the 2013/14 season.
  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of skim milk powder increased to US$4441 a tonne on 2 July 2013, compared with US$4284 a tonne on 18 June 2013. Over the same period, the prices of whole milk powder and anhydrous milk fat increased by around 2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, but the price of cheese fell by around 4 per cent.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$303 a tonne in the week ending 2 July 2013, compared with US$321 in the previous week.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 7 per cent in the week ending 28 June 2013 to 304 cents a kilogram. The young cattle indicator price also rose by 1 per cent to 361 cents a kilogram in Victoria, but fell in New South Wales by 4 per cent to 345 cents a kilogram.
  • Australian beef and veal exports were 88 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in June 2013, around 8 per cent higher than in June 2012. This increase reflects higher shipments to China and the Middle East.
  • Australian lamb exports were 17 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in June 2013, around 7 per cent higher than in June 2012. This rise in lamb exports reflects increased shipments to the Middle East and China.

Climate

Notable events

  • June 2013 rainfall was variable across Australia, with generally above average rainfall recorded in the southeast mainland, South Australia and northern Western Australia. Below average rainfall was recorded in Tasmania, most of Queensland and southern Western Australia during June.
  • During June 2013 most of the Western Australian wheatbelt recorded severely deficient, with reports that some winter crops are experiencing moisture stress. The yield prospects of affected crops will be heavily reliant on rainfall over the coming weeks.
  • Upper layer soil moisture levels across the eastern Australian wheatbelt have improved markedly during June 2013 in response to above average rainfall, whereas in Western Australia soil moisture levels across much of the wheatbelt have declined during June.
  • Dry seasonal conditions have reportedly resulted in a significant movement of cattle along Queensland’s inland stock routes. There are reports that feed and water is getting scarce due to the high levels of utilisation.
  • The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is likely to remain through the 2013 winter and spring. A negative IOD can increase the chances of above average rainfall over southern Australia. Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean until spring, but there is still some chance of a La Niña event occurring in 2013 (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 2 July 2013).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 26 June 2013, rainfall was mainly recorded in north-east New South Wales, Tasmania, south-east Queensland, and north-west and south-west Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 234mm at Tweed Heads on the New South Wales and Queensland border.

For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 3 July 2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of skim milk powder increased to US$4441 a tonne on 2 July 2013, compared with US$4284 a tonne on 18 June 2013. Over the same period, the prices of whole milk powder and anhydrous milk fat increased by around 2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively, but the price of cheese fell by around 4 per cent.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$303 a tonne in the week ending 2 July 2013, compared with US$321 in the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$294 a tonne for the week ending 3 July 2013, compared with US$299 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$573 a tonne in the week ending 2 July 2013, compared with US$600 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price averaged around US91.7 cents a pound in the week ending 3 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $620 a tonne in the week ending 1 July 2013, compared with $617 a tonne in the previous week.
  • Most wholesale prices of selected fruit increased in the week ending 29 June 2013. Only the prices of banana (cavendish) and pineapple (smoothleaf) fell while the price of kiwifruit (hayward) remained largely unchanged.
  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 29 June 2013. The wholesale prices of broccoli and beans (round stringless) increased while the prices of onions (brown) and iceberg lettuce fell. The prices of tomatoes (field gourmet), cauliflower, potato (white washed) and pumpkin (grey bulk) remained largely unchanged.
  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 2 per cent in the week ending 27 June 2013 to 1047 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale was 55 per cent higher, compared with the previous week.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) increased by around 7 per cent in the week ending 28 June 2013 to 304 cents a kilogram. The young cattle indicator price also rose by 1 per cent to 361 cents a kilogram in Victoria, but fell in New South Wales by 4 per cent to 345 cents a kilogram.
  • Australian beef and veal exports were 88 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in June 2013, around 8 per cent higher than in June 2012. This increase reflects higher shipments to China and the Middle East.
  • The Victorian saleyard lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) declined by around 1 per cent in the week ending 28 June 2013 to average 489 cents a kilogram.
  • Australian lamb exports were 17 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in June 2013, around 7 per cent higher than in June 2012. This rise in lamb exports reflects increased shipments to the Middle East and China.

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