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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


11 July 2013

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade July 2013USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade July 2013


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

 

 

China’s growing consumption of peanuts and peanut oil has led to a significant reduction in exports over the past ten years. Much of that decline has been in sales of lower quality, less profitable peanuts, and therefore prime candidates for crush in the domestic market. As a consequence, global importers have turned to India and Argentina for supplies of low and mid-quality peanuts. Alternatively, the United States, which generally markets higher-quality, premium-priced peanuts, has seen little impact on sales.

China is expected to remain a principal player in the global peanut trade. However, further erosion in exports may provide some marketing opportunities for U.S. producers, particularly for inshell peanuts.

OVERVIEW

For 2013/14, global soybean production is up with gains for the United States, China, and Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Russia. World trade is up with larger imports for Russia and exports from Canada. The season average U.S. farm price is unchanged.

For 2012/13, global soybean production is up as larger crops in Paraguay and China more than offset a reduced crop in Argentina. World trade is up slightly supported by larger Paraguay exports and European Union imports. The season average U.S. farm price is up slightly.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in June averaged $605/ton, up sizably from the previous month as exportable supplies remain tight, while demand for crush is strong.

As of the week-ending June 27, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 21.6 million tons compared to 23.3 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 36.8 million tons, compared to 37.6 million for the same period last year.

2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK

• Canada’s soybean exports are up 250,000 tons to 3.5 million on stronger global demand.

• Russia’s soybean imports are up 150,000 tons to 1.1 million partially offsetting its reduced crop.

China’s soybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.1 million on expectations of continued competitiveness in nearby markets; rapeseed meal imports are cut 100,000 tons to 200,000 on larger domestic supplies.

• Australia’s rapeseed exports are up 300,000 tons to 2.5 million due to a larger crop.

European Union’s sunflowerseed exports are up 100,000 tons to 450,000 on reduced competition from Ukraine.

Ukraine’s sunflowerseed exports are cut 130,000 tons to 150,000 on a smaller crop. July 2013

2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK

U.S. soybean meal exports are up 90,000 tons to 9.5 million reflecting strong sales and shipments to date.

Australia’s rapeseed exports are up 500,000 tons to a record 2.9 million on strong demand from China.

• China’s rapeseed imports are up 500,000 tons to 2.9 million to reflect a record large monthly purchase in May; similarly rapeseed oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.3 million and; peanut imports are cut 150,000 tons to 50,000 tons based on Oct-May trade data.

EU soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 12.2 million on improved demand for crush.

Paraguay soybean exports are boosted 500,000 tons to 5.5 million supported by a larger crop and stronger demand from the EU.

Indonesia’s and Malaysia’s soybean meal imports are up 100,000 tons each to 3.6 million and 1.3 million respectively, on larger purchases from Argentina and China.

Thailand’s soybean meal imports are cut 100,000 tons to 2.9 million with slower purchases from

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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