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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


01 August 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 1 August 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 1 August 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • Much of Western Australia’s south?west recorded rainfall during the past week, improving growing conditions for winter crops in a number of regions.
  • Recent rainfall across south?east Australia has topped up soil moisture levels and increased the volume of water held in key storages.
  • Graziers in north Queensland are reportedly looking to further reduce livestock numbers as water levels in dam storages continue to decrease.
  • The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) index has been negative since mid?May. A negative IOD during winter?spring increases the chances of above?average rainfall over southern Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 275 gigalitres (GL) and are at 76 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocations to high reliability water entitlements increased in the Victorian Goulburn, Murray and Campaspe catchments.
  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a tonne in the week ending 30 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US16.7 cents a pound in the week ending 31 July 2013, 3 per cent higher than in the previous week.
  • According to the United States Department of Agriculture, total US cotton plantings in the 2013 season were 4.2 million hectares, 17 per cent lower than last year.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 4 per cent in the week ending 26 July 2013 to average 324 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • Much of Western Australia’s south?west recorded rainfall during the past week, improving growing conditions for winter crops. While some crops in the north and east of the Western Australian wheat belt have suffered from dry seasonal conditions during June and July 2013, the recent rainfall has reportedly improved yield prospects for crops across most of the region.
  • Recent rainfall across south?east Australia has topped up soil moisture levels and increased the volume of water held in key storages, providing favourable production conditions for both dry land and irrigated systems.
  • Winter pasture growth in south?east Australia has reportedly been better than expected due to warmer than normal winter temperatures.
  • Graziers in north Queensland are reportedly looking to further reduce livestock numbers as water levels in dam storages continue to decrease. Limited monsoonal rains during the 2012?13 summer followed by an extended period of below average rainfall have significantly impacted surface water availability.
  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean over the next few months (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap?up’, 30 July 2013).
  • The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) index has been negative since mid?May, with most climate models predicting it will remain negative for the winter and spring. A negative IOD during winter?spring increases the chances of above average rainfall over southern Australia, while over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap?up’, 30 July 2013).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 31 July 2013, rainfall was recorded across much of the south?western half of Western Australia, southern and Alpine Victoria, alpine and central New South Wales, Tasmania and along parts of the Queensland coast. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 122 millimetres at Mount William, south of Perth in Western Australia. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 31 July 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Issued: 31/07/2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a tonne in the week ending 30 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$255 a tonne for the week ending 31 July 2013, compared with US$285 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$463 a tonne in the week ending 30 July 2013, compared with US$497 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $601 a tonne in the week ending 29 July 2013, compared with $617 a tonne in the previous week.
  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US92.8 cents a pound in the week ending 31 July 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.
  • Data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows total US cotton plantings in the 2013 season were 4.2 million hectares, 17 per cent lower than last year.
  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US16.7 cents a pound in the week ending 31 July 2013, 2 per cent higher than in the previous week.
  • Data from the Brazil Sugar Industry Association shows sugarcane crushing in Brazil’s Centre South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) for the 2013?14 season was 223 million tonnes as at 24 July 2013, around 38 per cent of the targeted output for the region.
  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) increased by 4 per cent in the week ending 26 July 2013 to average 324 cents a kilogram.
  • Saleyard lamb prices rose in most states in the week ending 26 July 2013. The lamb indicator price (18– 22kg fat score 2–4) rose by 2 per cent in Western Australia to average 405 cents a kilogram. The indicator price rose by 1 per cent in South Australia and New South Wales to average 511 cents and 515 cents a kilogram, respectively.
  • Australian milk production fell 3 per cent to 9200 million litres in 2012–13. Milk production declined in all states, with the largest falls recorded in South Australia and Queensland, down 6 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively. In Victoria, which accounts for around two thirds of total Australian milk production, output fell by 2.8 per cent.
  • Wholesale prices of selected fruit were generally lower in the week ending 27 July 2013. Wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), blueberry, strawberry and watermelon (seedless) were lower than the previous week.
  • The changes to wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 27 July 2013. Wholesale prices of beans (round) and iceberg lettuce were higher, while cauliflower and tomatoes (field gourmet) were lower than the previous week.

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