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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


30 August 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 29 August 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 29 August 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • Over the past week moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded across southern Australia. This timely rainfall is likely to support increased crop and pasture growth in these regions, as we move into the warmer months of spring.

  • Daily maximum temperatures are forecast to be anomalously warm over much of central, southern and eastern Australia during the coming week, with some cropping areas likely to be experiencing temperatures of between 6 to 8 degrees Celsius above average.

  • The seasonal rainfall outlook for spring 2013 indicates that wetter than average conditions are more likely over much of south-east Australia.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have increased by 443 gigalitres this week and are at 82 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a tonne in the week ending 27 August 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$266 a tonne for the week ending 28 August 2013, compared with US$250 a tonne from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$496 a tonne in the week ending 27 August 2013, compared with US$481 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 1 per cent to 313 cents a kilogram in the week ending 23 August 2013. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and South Australia fell by 4 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, to 343 cents a kilogram and 315 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard prices of lamb fell in most states in the week ending 23 August 2013. The largest fall occurred in Victoria where the indicator price (18–22 kilogram fat score 2–4) fell by around 11 per cent to average 419 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • Over the past week moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded across much of south-west Western Australia, south-east and central Victoria, western and northern Tasmania, and inland south-east New South Wales. This timely rainfall is likely to support increased crop and pasture growth in these regions, as we move into the warmer months of spring.

  • During the week ending 27 August 2013, minimum temperatures were up to four degrees below average across northern New South Wales and up to six degrees below average in southern Queensland. There are reports that some winter crops in these areas were impacted by heavy frosts.

  • Daily maximum temperatures are forecast to be anomalously warm over much of central, southern and eastern Australia during the coming week, with some cropping areas likely to be experiencing temperatures of between 6 to 8 degrees Celsius above average. In areas with adequate soil moisture, the warm conditions may assist crop and pasture growth. Without adequate soil moisture, the high temperatures may contribute to increased crop moisture stress.

  • The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with the majority of climate models indicating it will remain neutral until the end of the year. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has eased from negative to neutral values over recent weeks, with climate model guidance suggesting that the IOD will either remain neutral or return to negative in the months ahead. Negative IOD events during winter-spring are associated with above average rainfall over southern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 27 August 2013).

  • Wetter than average conditions are more likely for south-east Australia and the far north of the Northern Territory during the 2013 spring, while drier than average conditions are more likely for a part of northern –central Western Australia. Warmer than average day-time and night-time temperatures are more likely over most of northern Australia, coastal Western Australia and Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology, Seasonal Outlook, 28 August 2013).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 28 August 2013, rainfall was mainly recorded across southern Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 125 millimetres at Zeehan in west Tasmania. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 28 August 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology       Issued: 28/08/2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$314 a tonne in the week ending 27 August 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$266 a tonne for the week ending 28 August 2013, compared with US$250 a tonne from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$496 a tonne in the week ending 27 August 2013, compared with US$481 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US90 cents a pound in the week ending 28 August 2013, around 6 per cent lower than in previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US16.4 cents a pound in the week ending 28 August 2013, compared with US16.7 cents in the previous week.The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $560 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2013, compared with $570 a tonne in the previous week.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 24 August 2013. The wholesale prices of blueberry and watermelon (seedless) were higher than the previous week, while banana (cavendish) and strawberry were lower than the previous week.

  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables were largely unchanged in the week ending 24 August 2013 with only the wholesale prices of beans (round stringless) and broccoli lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 1 per cent to 313 cents a kilogram in the week ending 23 August 2013. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and South Australia fell by 4 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, to 343 cents a kilogram and 315 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard prices of lamb fell in most states in the week ending 23 August 2013. The largest fall occurred in Victoria where the indicator price (18–22 kilogram fat score 2–4) fell by around 11 per cent to average 419 cents a kilogram. In South Australia and New South Wales, the indicator price fell by 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively, to 468 cents a kilogram and 434 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price in Western Australia rose by 4 per cent to 378 cents a kilogram.

  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool rose by around 4 cents in the week ending 22 August 2013 to 1012 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction was 24 per cent lower than the previous sale.

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