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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


07 November 2013

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 7 November 2013Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 7 November 2013


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • October rainfall was 51 per cent below the long-term average nationally. Tasmania was the only state to record above-average rainfall.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 214 gigalitres (GL) and are at 81 per cent of total capacity.

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat increased to US$5343 a tonne on 5 November 2013 compared with US$5007 a tonne on 15 October 2013 and the price of cheese increased by around 1 per cent over the same period. The price of whole milk powder declined by around 3 per cent to US$4891 a tonne while and the price of skim milk powder remained largely unchanged.

  • Australian beef and veal exports were 104 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in October 2013, 11 per cent higher than in October 2012. Exports to the United States, China and Saudi Arabia were higher but shipments to Japan were lower.

  • There were mixed movements in the saleyard prices of lamb in the week ending 1 November 2013. The indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 1 per cent in Victoria and 5 per cent in South Australia to average 382 and 404 cents a kilogram, respectively. In New South Wales, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent to 390 cents a kilogram.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$326 a tonne in the week ending 5 November 2013, compared with US$334 a tonne in the previous week.

  • According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee, as at 31 October 2013, the Chinese government had purchased 1.1 million tonnes of the 2013–14 Chinese cotton crop for the Chinese national reserve, 44 per cent less than the quantity of the 2012–13 crop purchased by the same date last year.

Climate

Notable events

  • October rainfall was 51 per cent below the long-term average nationally. Tasmania was the only state to record above-average rainfall, although total rainfall was well above average along the northwestern coast between Carnarvon in Western Australia and the Victoria River region in the eastern Top End, as well as other small areas of the tropical north. Elsewhere, rainfall was generally below average (Bureau of Meteorology, Monthly Climate Summary, 1 November 2013).

  • October maximum and mean temperatures were well above average, while minimum temperatures were also warmer than average. Parts of the tropical north recorded their warmest October on record. October night-time temperatures were below average for eastern South Australia, the southeast of the Alice Springs District and for much of southeastern New South Wales and northern Victoria. (Bureau of Meteorology, Monthly Climate Summary, 1 November 2013).

  • Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate models suggest that ENSO conditions are likely to remain neutral until the end of summer 2013–14 (Bureau of Meteorology, ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 6 November 2013).

  • Warmer temperatures over the winter growing season have brought on an early grain harvest in South Australia with reports of over one million tonnes processed to date.

  • Low density populations of locusts are forecast to continue for the remainder of 2013 in most regions of eastern Australia. Significant egg laying and maturation is not likely due to dry vegetation and predicted low rainfall, although single heavy rainfall events could result in localised population increases (Department of Agriculture, Locust Situation November 2013).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 6 November 2013, rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded around Darwin in the Northern Territory, in the Central Highlands of Queensland and along the Queensland coast. Parts of Western Tasmania recorded in excess of 25 millimetres. The rest of Australia received little or no rain during the week. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 166 millimetres at Darwin Botanic Gardens in the Northern Territory. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology            Issued: 6/11/2013

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of anhydrous milk fat increased to US$5343 a tonne on 5 November 2013 compared with US$5007 a tonne on 15 October 2013 and the price of cheese increased by around 1 per cent over the same period. The price of whole milk powder declined by around 3 per cent to US$4891 a tonne while and the price of skim milk powder remained largely unchanged.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$326 a tonne in the week ending 5 November 2013, compared with US$334 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$200 a tonne for the week ending 6 November 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$514 a tonne in the week ending 5 November 2013, compared with US$524 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 84.7 cents a pound in the week ending 6 November 2013, the lowest weekly price level in almost 10 months.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US18.3 cents a pound in the week ending 6 November 2013, around 2.1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from United States Department of Agriculture indicates that as at 3 November 2013, 93 per cent of the 2013–14 sugar beet crop had been harvested, 4 per cent more than the same time in 2012.

  • The United States Department of Agriculture has revised its estimate for Brazilian sugarcane production in 2013–14 to 645 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes more than its previous estimate.

  • According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee, as at 31 October 2013, the Chinese government had purchased 1.1 million tonnes of the 2013–14 Chinese cotton crop for the Chinese national reserve, 44 per cent less than the quantity of the 2012–13 crop purchased by the same date last year.

  • The value of the Australian dollar averaged US94.9 cents in the week ending 6 November 2013, compared with US95.7 cents in the previous week.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.50 per cent on 5 November 2013.

  • Changes to wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 2 November 2013. The wholesale prices of blueberry, strawberry and avocado (hass) were higher than the previous week while the prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and watermelon (seedless) were lower.

  • Changes to wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 2 November 2013. The wholesale prices of cauliflower and bean (round stringless) were higher than the previous week while the prices of tomato (field gourmet) and iceberg lettuce were lower.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $496 a tonne in the week ending 4 November 2013, compared with $490 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 1 per cent to 325 cents a kilogram in the week ending 1 November 2013. Young cattle prices in New South Wales and Victoria fell, by 2 per cent and 4 per cent to 311 cents and 317 cents a kilogram, respectively.

  • Australian beef and veal exports were 104 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in October 2013, 11 per cent higher than in October 2012. Exports to the United States, China and Saudi Arabia were higher but shipments to Japan were lower.

  • There were mixed movements in the saleyard prices of lamb in the week ending 1 November 2013. The indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 1 per cent in Victoria and 5 per cent in South Australia to average 382 and 404 cents a kilogram, respectively. In New South Wales, the indicator price fell by 1 per cent to 390 cents a kilogram.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool was largely unchanged in the week ending 31 October 2013, averaging 1095 cents a kilogram clean. The number of bales offered at auction was around 5 per cent higher than the previous sale.

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