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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


23 January 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 23 January 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 23 January 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • During the past week, a deep tropical low in the western Top End combined with an active monsoon trough brought heavy rainfall to parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

  • Widespread rainfall is predicted across most of the tropics, Western Australia, southern South Australia and along most of the eastern seaboard over the coming week.

  • Flood warnings are current (22nd January) for several river systems in Western Australia. Severe fire weather warnings are in place for the Central-West, North-West, Channel Country, Maranoa and Darling Downs regions of Queensland.

  • The February to April 2014 rainfall outlook shows that there is a 40 to 60 per cent chance of exceeding the median rainfall across most of the country.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have decreased by 485 gigalitres this week and are at 64 per cent of total capacity.

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheese increased to around US$5133 a tonne on 21 January 2014 compared with US$4656 a tonne on 7 January 2014. The price of anhydrous milk fat increased by around 2 per cent while prices of skim milk powder and whole milk powder were largely unchanged over the same period.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) has increased by around 10 per cent since the beginning of December 2013 to an average of $344 a tonne in the week ending 22 January 2014.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$286 a tonne in the week ending 21 January 2014, compared with US$289 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US92.7 cents a pound in the week ending 22 January 2014, around 5 per cent lower than the previous week.

Climate

Notable events

  • During the past week, a deep tropical low in the western Top End combined with an active monsoon trough brought heavy rainfall to parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The rainfall will help to replenish dam storages and promote pasture growth.

  • A significant heatwave event affected south-east Australia from 13 to 18 January. A hot air mass developed over Western Australia in early January, setting several records, before moving east, bringing hot northerly winds to south-east Australia over an extended period. The main areas impacted by the heat were Victoria, Tasmania, southern inland New South Wales and the southern half of South Australia (Bureau of Meteorology – Special Climate Statement 48).

  • Widespread rainfall is predicted across most of the tropics, Western Australia, southern South Australia and along most of the eastern seaboard over the coming week.

  • Flood warnings are current (22nd January) for several river systems in Western Australia. Severe fire weather warnings are also in place for the Central-West, North-West, Channel Country, Maranoa and Darling Downs regions of Queensland. For additional information about current warnings, please see http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml.

  • The February to April 2014 rainfall outlook shows that there is a 40 to 60 per cent chance of exceeding the median rainfall across most of the country, which indicates there is no strong tendency for either a wetter or drier three-month period for most areas. There are roughly equal chances of exceeding or not exceeding median maximum and minimum daytime and night time temperatures across most of Australia over the next three months.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 22 January 2014, rainfall was mainly recorded in the north-western half of the continent. A deep tropical low in the western Top End combined with an active monsoon trough brought heavy rainfall to parts of the tropics and further south into the Northern Territory and Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 465 millimetres at Litchfield, south of Darwin near the Daly River.
For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 22 January 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australian Bureau of Meteorology                Issued: 22/01/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$286 a tonne in the week ending 21 January 2014, compared with US$289 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$197 a tonne for the week ending 22 January 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$507 a tonne in the week ending 21 January 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US92.7 cents a pound in the week ending 22 January 2014, around 5 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from China Cotton Reserve Procurement indicates that, as at 15 January 2014, the Chinese government had purchased around 76 per cent (or 5.5 million tonnes) of the 2013–14 domestic cotton crop, similar to the volume purchased over the same period last year.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US15.2 cents a pound in the week ending 22 January 2014, around 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) has increased by around 10 per cent since the beginning of December 2013 to an average of $344 a tonne in the week ending 22 January 2014.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $510 a tonne in the week ending 20 January 2014, compared with $480 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The wholesale prices of selected fruit were generally higher in the week ending 18 January 2014. The wholesale prices of blueberry, banana (cavendish), avocado (hass), strawberry and apple (royal gala) were higher than the previous week while the price of watermelon (seedless) was lower.

  • Changes to wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 18 January 2014. The wholesale prices of beans (round stingless) and cauliflower were higher than the previous week while the prices of tomato (field gourmet) and brown onion were lower.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) fell by around 3 per cent in the week ending 17 January 2014 to 318 cents a kilogram. Young cattle prices fell by 7 per cent in New South Wales to 306 cents a kilogram and by 11 per cent in Victoria to 398 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the saleyard prices of lamb were mixed in the week ending 17 January 2014. The indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) rose by around 9 per cent in Western Australia and around 1 per cent in Victoria to average 480 cents a kilogram and 422 cents a kilogram, respectively. In contrast, the indicator price fell by around 8 per cent in New South Wales to 377 cents a kilogram and by around 1 per cent in South Australia to 419 cents a kilogram.

  • The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 2 per cent in the week ending 16 January 2014 to 1111 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at auction was largely unchanged from the previous sale.

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheese increased to around US$5133 a tonne on 21 January 2014 compared with US$4656 a tonne on 7 January 2014. The price of anhydrous milk fat increased by around 2 per cent while prices of skim milk powder and whole milk powder were largely unchanged over the same period.

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