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USDA Rice Outlook


13 April 2012

USDA Rice Outlook April 2012USDA Rice Outlook April 2012

The first survey-based indication of 2012/13 U.S. rice plantings peg area at 2.56 million acres, down 5 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 1987/88. Mediumgrain accounts for all of the indicated decline. Growers indicated smaller plantings in all reported States except Louisiana and Missouri. Through April 8, progress of the 2012/13 rice crop was ahead of normal across the Delta, but behind on the Gulf Coast.
USDA Rice Outlook

There were several revisions to the U.S. 2011/12 supply and use balance sheet this month. On the supply side, imports were raised 0.5 million cwt to 20.5 million cwt, with long-grain accounting for all of the revision. On the use side, total domestic and residual use was lowered 1.0 million cwt to 123.0 million cwt, while exports were raised 3.0 million cwt to 92.0 million cwt. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 1.5 millioncwt reduction in the 2011/12 U.S. ending stocks forecast to 39.0 million cwt.

The 2011/12 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice was lowered to $13.10-$13.50 per cwt from $13.20-$13.80 last month. Although the range was narrowed 10 cents on both ends, the mid-point of the combined medium- and shortgrain SAFP remains at $15.70 per cwt. The 2011/12 global rice production forecast was lowered 1.7 million tons this month to 463.7 million tons (milled basis), still the highest on record. Production forecasts were lowered for Burma, Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan, but raised for Thailand and Vietnam. The global ending stocks forecast was raised 3.0 million tons this month to 103.3 million, the highest since 2001/02.

The global calendar year 2012 trade forecast was raised 1.3 million tons (milled basis) from last month’s forecast to 34.0 million tons. Export forecasts for 2012 were raised for India and Vietnam, but lowered for Burma, China, and the EU-27. Import forecasts for 2012 were raised for China, Egypt, and the United States.

Except for parboiled rice, trading prices for Thailand’s rice have changed little since early March, as demand for Thailand’s non-parboiled rice remains weak. In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have risen substantially over the past month, mostly a response to large purchases by China and the Philippines for delivery in the second quarter. U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices have declined from a month earlier, continuing a downward trend that began in early October. Prices for California milled-rice for the domestic markets have declined over the past month as well.

DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

US Rice Growers Indicate 2012/13 Plantings at 2.56 Million Acres

The March 2012 Prospective Plantings report indicated total U.S. rice plantings in 2012/13 of 2.56 million acres, down 5 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 1987/88. The year-to-year decline is largely due to more favorable expected returns for alternative crops, especially soybeans and corn in the Delta, the largest rice-producing region in the country. Plantings were indicated lower this year in both California and the South.

By class, long-grain plantings were indicated at 1.86 million acres, a 4-percent increase from a year earlier. Almost all long-grain rice is grown in the South. Medium- and short-grain plantings were indicated at 697,000 acres, a decline of 22 percent from a year earlier. The South accounted for 80 percent of the indicated decline in U.S. medium- and short-grain plantings in 2012/13.

Growers in Arkansas indicated 2012/13 rice plantings of 1.16 million acres, a 3-percent decline from a year earlier and the smallest since 1989/90. Medium-grain accounted for all of the indicated area decline in Arkansas. California growers indicated 2012/13 plantings at 544,000 acres, down 7 percent from a year earlier. In Mississippi, growers indicated 2012/13 plantings of just 135,000 acres, nearly 16 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 1977/78. Mississippi grows only long-grain rice. In Texas, growers intend to plant 115,000 acres of rice in 2012/13, a decline of 37 percent from 2011/12 and smallest since 1902/03. The State has endured severe drought for several years and the State has imposed water restrictions in many counties. Almost all rice grown in Texas is long grain. In contrast, growers in Louisiana indicated they would expand rice plantings 8 percent to 455,000 acres in 2012/13, with long-grain accounting for all of the increase. Growers in Missouri indicated rice plantings of 151,000 acres in 2012/13, up 8 percent from a year earlier, with long-grain accounting for all of the intended increase. Adverse weather sharply limited 2011/12 plantings in Missouri. Indicated U.S. plantings are based on a survey of growers that was conducted by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in early March. Actual plantings may differ from reported intentions. The first survey of actual plantings of the 2012/13 crop will be conducted in early June and reported in the Acreage report released on June 29, 2012.

2012/13 U.S. Rice Crop Progress Well Ahead of Normal in the Delta

For the week ending April 8, 37 percent of the U.S. rice crop was reported planted, well ahead of 23 percent a year earlier and the U.S. 5-year average of 19 percent. Planting was ahead of normal in the Delta, but behind on the Gulf Coast. In Arkansas, 49 percent of the crop was reported planted by April 8, up from 17 percent last year and a 5-year average of 13 percent. Mississippi’s 2012/13 rice crop was 36 percent planted by April 8, up 27 percentage points from both last year and the State’s 5-year average. In Missouri, 47 percent of the 2012/13 rice crop was reported planted by April 8, well ahead of the State’s average of just 3 percent.

In contrast, slightly more than half the Louisiana 2012/13 rice crop was reported planted by April 8, well behind 64 percent last year and slightly behind the State’s 5-year average of 55 percent. In Texas, just 35 percent of the 2012/13 rice crop was reported planted by April 8, well behind 76 percent last year and the State’s 5-year average of 61 percent. Planting of the 2012/13 crop has not begun in California. By April 8, 9 percent of the U.S. rice crop had emerged, up from 8 percent a year earlier and the U.S. average of 6 percent.

Like planting, emergence was well ahead of normal in the Delta, but behind on the Gulf Coast. In Arkansas, 11 percent of the crop had emerged by April 8, 10 percentage points ahead of last year and the State’s 5-year average. For Mississippi, 12 percent of the crop had emerged by April 8, up from 3 percent last year and the State’s average of 2 percent. In Missouri, 5 percent of the crop had emerged by April 8. Rice does not typically emerge this early in Missouri. In Texas, just 15 percent of the 2012/13 rice crop had emerged by April 8, down from 51 percent last year and the Texas average of 32 percent. For Louisiana, 12 percent of the crop had emerged by April 8, well behind 27 percent last year and the State’s 5-year average of 32 percent.

U.S. 2011/12 Import Forecast Raised to 20.5 Million Cwt

The 2011/12 U.S. total import forecast was raised 0.5 million cwt to 20.5 million cwt, nearly 12 percent larger than a year earlier and the first increase since 2007/08. The upward revision was largely based on U.S. Census data through January. Shipments from both Thailand and India are well ahead of a year earlier. In addition, Brazil and Uruguay shipped about 33,000 tons of rice to the U.S. through January, although the pace from these two South American suppliers has slowed since late 2011.

Long-grain accounts for all of the upward revision in imports. At a record 18.0 million cwt, U.S. long-grain imports are up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 14 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain imports for 2011/12 remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The 2011/12 U.S. rice crop remains estimated at 185.0 million cwt, down 24 percent from the year-earlier record. By class, long-grain production remains estimated at 116.4 million, a 37-percent decline from a year earlier and the smallest U.S. long-grain crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains estimated at a record 68.6 million cwt, 15 percent higher than a year earlier.

Beginning stocks of all-rice remain estimated at 48.5 million cwt, 33 percent larger than a year earlier and the largest since 1987/88. The 2011/12 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 35.6 million cwt, 55 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, the medium/short-grain carryin remains estimated at 10.1 million cwt, 16 percent below a year earlier. Beginning stocks of brokens are estimated at 2.7 million cwt, a 91-percent increase from a year earlier.

The total U.S. 2011/12 supply forecast was raised 0.5 million cwt to 254.0 million cwt, still almost 15 percent below the year-earlier record. Long-grain total supplies are forecast at 170.1 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 23 percent below a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total supplies remain forecast at 81.2 million cwt, 11 percent larger than a year earlier and the highest since 1983/84. Supplies of broken rice kernels are not specified by class.

Based on data reported in the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s March Rice Stocks, U.S. rice stocks on March 1, 2012 are estimated at 112.9 million cwt, a decline of 13 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain stocks on March 1 are estimated at 71.1 million cwt, down 22 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain stocks, estimated at 39.4 million cwt, are up 8 percent from a year earlier. All of the increase in the March 1 medium- and short-grain stocks was in the South. U.S. stocks of brokens on March 1 are estimated at 2.4 million cwt, nearly 19 percent larger than a year earlier.

Stocks on March 1 were smaller than a year earlier in all reported States. At 56.3 million cwt, rice stocks in Arkansas on March 1 were down 9 percent from a year earlier. Stocks in Louisiana are estimated at 11.1 million cwt on March 1, an 11-percent decline from a year earlier. In Mississippi, March 1 rice stocks are estimated at 4.3 million cwt, down 33 percent from March 1, 2011. Missouri’s March 1 stocks of 4.1 million cwt were 43 percent smaller than a year earlier. Rice stocks in Texas on March 1 are estimated at 6.8 million cwt, a decline of almost 5 percent from last year. Finally, California’s rice stocks of 29.3 million cwt were down almost 5 percent from a year earlier.

U.S. 2011/12 All-Rice Export Forecast Raised to 92.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2011/12 is projected at 215.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 14 percent below the year-earlier record. This month, a higher export forecast was partially offset by a reduced total domestic and residual use forecast. By class, long-grain total use remains projected at 146.0 million cwt, 22 percent smaller than the year-earlier record. In contrast, medium/short-grain total use is forecast at a record 69.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month and almost 10 percent above a year earlier.

Total domestic and residual use of all-rice in 2011/12 is projected at 123.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month and 11 percent below the year-earlier record. This month’s downward revision was largely based on the March Rice Stocks report that indicated lower-than-expected domestic disappearance from August 2011 through February 2012, a continued decline in brewers use of rice, and a smaller seed use expected for the 2012 crop. By class, long-grain domestic disappearance is projected at 88.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 19-percent below the year-earlier record. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic disappearance remains projected at 35.0 million cwt, an increase of 19 percent from 2010/11.

Total exports of U.S. rice in 2011/12 are projected at 92.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 18 percent below 2010/11. The upward revision was largely based on U.S. Census data through January, information from the U.S. Export Sales through March, and expectations regarding sales the remainder of the market year. By market, Venezuela and South Korea account for the bulk of the upward revision in the U.S. 2011/12 export forecast.

The U.S. long-grain export forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 58.0 million cwt, still 26 percent below a year earlier. Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Central America, and South America account for most of the expected decline in U.S. long-grain exports in 2011/12. The year-to-year decline is mostly a result of greater competition from other suppliers and, in some import markets, larger domestic crops. The medium- and shortgrain 2011/12 export forecast was raised 2.0 million to 34.0 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier, despite larger shipments from both Australia and Egypt than a year earlier.

By type, the U.S. rough-rice export forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent below a year earlier. Central and South America account for most of the expected year-to-year decline in U.S. rough-rice exports. The U.S. milled-rice export forecast (combined milled and brown rice exports on a rough basis) was raised 2.0 million cwt to 60.0 million cwt. Despite the upward revision, U.S. milled rice exports are 22 percent below a year earlier. Africa and the Middle East account for the bulk of the expected decline in U.S. milled-rice exports in 2011/12, mostly due to greater competition from lower-priced suppliers.

U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2011/12 are projected at 39.0 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and almost 20 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 18.1 percent, down from 19.4 percent in 2010/11. By class, the 2011/12 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 24.1 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s calculation, but 32.5 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 16.5 percent, down from 19.1 percent in 2010/11. The medium/short-grain carryout is projected at 12.2 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month, but up 21 percent from a year earlier. The medium/shortgrain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 17.7 percent, up from 16.1 percent in 2010/11.

U.S. 2011/12 Season-Average Price Forecast for Long-Grain Rice Lowered to $13.10-$13.50 Cwt

The 2011/12 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $13.10-$13.50 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low-end and down 30 cents on the highend from last month’s forecast. The downward revision is based on NASS prices through mid-March and on expectations regarding U.S. rough-rice prices the remainder of the market year. Despite this month’s downward revision, the long-grain SAFP remains well above the $11.00 price in 2010/11. U.S. long-grain prices in 2011/12 are being supported by much smaller U.S. supplies.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2011/12 U.S. SAFP is projected at $15.50- $15.90 per cwt, a tightening of 10 cents on both the low-end and high-end from last month’s forecast. The midpoint of $15.70 is unchanged from last month, but $3.10 below the 2010/11 SAFP of $18.80 per cwt. In 2011/12, U.S. medium- and short-grain prices are facing pressure from much larger U.S. supplies and increased competition from Australia and Egypt in the global rice market.

In late March, NASS reported a mid-March U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $13.20 per cwt, unchanged from the revised February estimate. The February price was lowered 20 cents from the mid-month estimate to $13.20. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-March NASS price was reported at $16.00 per cwt, up 70 cents from the February price. The February medium- and short-grain rough-rice cash price remains estimated at $15.30 per cwt. U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice prices declined $3.70 per cwt from August 2011 through February 2012.

INTERNATIONAL RICE MARKET

Production Forecasts for 2011/12 Lowered for Burma, Egypt, Indonesia, and Pakistan

The 2011/12 global rice production forecast was lowered 1.7 million tons this month to 463.7 million tons (milled basis). Despite the downward revision, the crop is almost 3 percent above a year earlier and the highest on record. Australia, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, the EU-27, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka account for most of the projected year-to-year increase in global production in 2011/12. In contrast, production is projected to be substantially lower in 2011/12 than a year earlier in Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, the United States, and Uruguay. By region, production is projected record-high in Asia, but expected to be down sharply in the Western Hemisphere.

The bumper global rice crop is largely the result of expanded area. At 159.9 million hectares global harvested area in 2011/12 is up almost 2 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. South Asia accounts for most of the projected increase in global rice area for 2011/12. The average global yield of 4.32 tons per hectare (roughbasis) is fractionally above a year earlier and the highest on record. The largest production decrease this month was made for Indonesia, with the production estimate lowered 1.0 million tons to 36.6 million tons, based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta indicating slightly lower area and a weaker yield. Although the general weather pattern has been more favorable than last year, crop yields from the main rainy season harvest did not improve as much as previously expected. The small reduction in harvested rice area is attributed to farmers increasing the acreage of secondary crops like corn and soybeans in the upcoming dry season.

Burma’s 2011/12 production forecast was lowered 770,000 tons to 10.8 million based on a much lower area than projected last month and a slightly lower yield. Farmers in Burma shifted some area to beans and pulses during the dry season and other farmers exited farming due to low prices. Elsewhere in Asia, Pakistan’s 2011/12 crop estimate was lowered 50,000 tons to 6.5 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Islamabad indicating a weaker yield. The crop is still 30 percent larger than a year earlier.

Outside Asia, Egypt’s 2011/12 rice crop was lowered 0.3 million tons to 4.25 million tons, based on a lower area estimate and weaker yield reported by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. The crop is still 37 percent larger than a year earlier, the result of a substantial area expansion. Colombia’s 2011/12 crop projection was lowered more than 0.2 million tons to 1.43 million tons, based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bogotá indicating a lower yield due to severe flooding and rains. The adverse weather has promoted rice blast which has likely lowered yields as well.

These downward revisions were partially offset by several upward revisions. First, Vietnam’s 2011/12 production projection was raised 0.3 million tons to a record 26.46 million tons based on information from the U.S, Agricultural Counselor in Hanoi supporting both a larger area and higher yield estimates. Thailand’s 2011/12 production was raised 0.16 million tons to a record 20.46 million tons due to expanded dry season area. Bangladesh’s 2011/12 crop was increased 100,000 tons to a record 34.1 million tons based on a revised May-April market year. The crop year now begins with harvest of the boro crop, the country’s largest rice crop. The crop year for Bangladesh was revised back to 2008/09. A slightly higher area estimate raised the Philippines production forecast to 10.6 million tons. Smaller upward revisions in production forecasts were made this month for Afghanistan, Iran, and Mexico.

The 2010/12 global production forecast was lowered 3.1 million tons to 450.1 million tons, mostly due to lower yield. Bangladesh’s 2010/11 crop estimate was lowered 1.5 million tons to 31.7 million due to a revised crop year. Individual crop estimates were not revised. Burma’s 2010/11 production estimate was lowered 1.3 million tons to 10.5 million tons based on a much lower yield caused by widespread flooding during last year’s monsoon season. A revised yield was responsible for a 0.2 million-ton reduction in Egypt’s 2010/11 crop to 3.1 million tons. Colombia’s 2010/11 crop was lowered 0.18 million tons to 1.32 million tons due to flooding and disease problems caused by high rainfall and high temperatures. In contrast, Vietnam’s 2010/11 production was raised 71,000 tons to 23.37 million based on slightly higher area and yield estimates.

Global disappearance for 2011/12 is projected at 458.8 million tons, 4.0 million tons below last month’s forecast, but still the highest on record. Burma, Egypt, India, Pakistan, and Thailand account for most of the downward revision in global disappearance. These reductions were partially offset by increases for China, the EU- 27, and Iran. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 103.3 million tons, up almost 3.0 million tons from last month’s forecast and 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Burma, Indonesia, the EU-27, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand account for the bulk of the upward revision in global ending stocks. This is the fifth consecutive annual increase in global ending stocks, with ending stocks the highest since 2001/02. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is calculated at 22.5 percent, up slightly from 22.1 percent in 2010/11.

India and Vietnam Are Projected To Be the Largest Rice Exporting Countries in 2012

The global calendar year 2012 trade forecast was raised 1.3 million tons (milled basis) from last month’s forecast to 34.0 million tons, still almost 6 percent below the 2011 revised record of 36.0 million tons. Trade in 2012 is the second highest on record. The decline in global trade this year is largely due to weaker demand for imports from several top buyers, particularly Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nigeria.

There were several significant export revisions for 2012 this month. First, India’s 2012 export forecast was raised 1.0 million tons to a record 7.0 million, about 50 percent larger than the year-earlier revised estimate. The upward revision is largely based on stronger global demand, abundant supplies, and the relaxation of the export ban.

Second, Vietnam’s rice exports were raised 0.5 million tons to 7.0 million tons, unchanged from the 2011 record. The upward revision is largely based on stronger import demand from China and the Philippines. India and Vietnam will be the largest rice exporting countries in 2012, making 2012 the first year since 1981—when the United States was the largest exporter—that Thailand has not been the largest rice exporting country. The U.S. 2012 export forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 3.1 million tons, based on a much stronger pace of sales in March and expectations regarding sales and shipments the rest of the calendar year. There were small upward revisions in 2012 export forecasts this month for Argentina, Japan, and South Korea.

These upward 2012 export revisions were partially offset by several major reductions. First Burma’s 2012 export forecast was lowered 150,000 tons to 600,000 based on stronger competition in West Africa from India. The EU-27 export forecast for 2012 was lowered 105,000 tons to 245,000 tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Brussels. Finally, China’s 2012 export forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 600,000 based on revised 2011 exports.

There were several major import revisions for 2012 this month as well. First, Indonesia’s 2012 import forecast was raised 0.95 million tons to 1.95 million based on recent large purchases. China’s 2012 import forecast was raised 350,000 tons to 750,000 tons based on recommendation from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Beijing. The EU-27 import forecast for 2012 was raised 0.33 million tons to 1.4 million tons based on recommendation from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Brussels and revised 2011 imports. Egypt’s 2012 import forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 600,000 tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. The U.S. 2012 import forecast was raised 50,000 tons to a record 725,000 based on a pick-up in deliveries since late 2011 and expectations regarding purchases the remainder of the calendar year. Finally, Iran’s 2012 import forecast was increased 50,000 tons to 1.55 million based on revised consumption and stocks estimates for 2011/12.

The 2011 global trade estimate was raised 0.9 million tons to a record 36.0 million tons, an increase of more than 13 percent from a year earlier. Most 2011 trade revisions were based on year-end export data from India and updated trade data from other exporters. On the export side, India’s 2011 export forecast was raised 437,000 tons to 4.64 million based on year-end trade data. India’s 2011 exports were more than double 2010 exports, largely due to the removal of the export ban in late summer and large supplies. Egypt’s 2011 export estimate was raised 200,000 tons to 320,000 tons, largely based on recommendation from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. Pakistan’s 2011 exports were raised 200,000 tons to 3.2 million tons based on January through October trade data. Finally, Thailand’s 2011 export estimate was raised 147,000 tons to a record 10.65 million based on year-end export data.

There were several important revisions for 2011 importers this month. First, the EU- 27’s 2011 import estimate was raised 325,000 tons to 1.475 million tons based on yearend trade data. Indonesia’s 2011 import estimate was raised 323,000 tons to 3.1 million tons, also based on year-end trade data. Iran’s 2011 imports were raised 0.4 million tons to a record 1.8 million based on additional trade data. Nigeria’s 2011 import estimate was raised 250,000 tons to a record 2.55 million tons, largely based on yearend export data from India. South Africa’s 2011 imports were raised 125,000 tons to 885,000 tons based on year-end trade data. These are the largest imports by South Africa since 2007.

These upward revisions in 2011 import estimates were partially offset by several major reductions. First, Iraq’s 2011 import estimate was lowered 114,000 tons to 1.04 million tons based on year-end trade data. Second, Syria’s 2011 import estimate was lowered 100,000 to 250,000 tons based on additional trade data, the security situation, and a tighter supply situation. Mexico’s 2011 imports were lowered 86,000 tons to 705,000 tons based on year-end trade data.

Prices for Thailand’s Parboiled Rice Rise, While Non-Specialty Rice Prices Are Nearly Unchanged

Except for parboiled rice, trading prices for Thailand’s rice have changed little since early March, as demand for Thailand’s non-parboiled rice remains weak. Prices for most grades of non-specialty rice had risen in mid- and late-March, but declined in early April, yielding little month-to-month change.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $554 per ton for the week ending April 10, down $4 from the week ending March 5. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $543 per ton for the week ending April 10, up just $1 from the week ending March 5. Thailand is currently making few sales at these uncompetitive price quotes.

Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice—a specialty rice—were quoted at $582 per ton for the week ending April 10, up $13 from the week ending March 5. Exporters in Thailand have nearly completed outstanding contracts of parboiled rice to Nigeria and there have been few new sales.

Prices for Thailand’s brokens have changed little since early March. For the week ending April 10, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $525 per ton, up $2 from the week ending March 5. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice were quoted at $1,063 per ton for the week ending April 10, up just $2 from March 5. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok.

In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have risen substantially over the past month, mostly a response to large purchases by China and the Philippines for delivery in the second quarter. For the week ending April 10, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent doublewater-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $440 per ton—up $35 per ton from the week ending March 6. Thailand’s price quotes for 5 percent brokens are currently $103 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, compared with a difference of $137 last month.

U.S. long-grain milled-rice prices have declined from a month earlier, continuing a downward trend that began in early October. For the week ending April 10, prices for high-quality Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $502 per ton, down $11 from March 6. U.S. longgrain milled-rice faces strong price competition in the global market. Thai rice is now quoted with a premium of $37 compared with U.S. rice (adjusted to reflect the fob vessel price). Last month, Thailand’s rice was quoted with a premium of $30 over similar grades of U.S. rice. Thailand is currently making few sales. U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) was quoted at $315 per ton for the week ending April 10, unchanged from a month earlier.

Prices for California rice for the domestic markets have declined over the past month as well. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (sacked) for domestic sales remains quoted at $772 per ton for the week ending April 10, down $22 from March 6. In contrast, export prices (for 30-kg bags, fob vessel) for California milled rice were quoted at $685 per ton for the week ending April 10, down $20 from a month earlier. Exports of California rice have been at near-record pace this year, despite greater competition from Australia and Egypt in several medium- and short-grain markets. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice prices, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

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