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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


18 July 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 17 July 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 17 July 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • During the past few days, parts of northern, central and southern New South Wales have reportedly recorded their highest daily rainfall event this winter. Heavy rainfall was also recorded across north western and central Australia in the past week.

  • While, neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the majority of climate models continue to forecast the development of El Niño conditions by October 2014.

  • General security water allocations have increased in New South Wales for the Murray Valley and the Murrumbidgee Valley.

  • High reliability water allocations have increased in Victoria for the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Broken systems.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have increased by 388 gigalitres this week and are at 61 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$293 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, compared with US$309 in the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $331 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 330 cents a kilogram in the week ending 11 July 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 364 cents a kilogram and rose by around 7 per cent in Victoria to average 385 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in all states in the week ending 11 July 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 8 per cent in South Australia to average 534 cents a kilogram and by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 561 cents a kilogram. In other states, the indicator price fell by around 2 per cent in both Western Australia and New South Wales to average 579 cents a kilogram and 559 cents a kilogram, respectively.

Climate

Notable events

  • During the past week, rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in the south-west and north of Western Australia, central Northern Territory, southern South Australia, much of Victoria, central and south eastern New South Wales and across the north and west of Tasmania.

  • Heavy rainfall was recorded across north western and central Australia in the past week, with a number of regions recording rainfall totals well above that typically seen during the winter dry season.

  • During the past few days, parts of northern, central and southern New South Wales have reportedly recorded their highest daily rainfall event this winter, with some regions recording in excess of 40 millimetres. These falls are likely to result in continued improvement in soil moisture levels.

  • While, neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions persist across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the majority of climate models continue to forecast the development of El Niño conditions by October 2014. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are forecast to continue to warm over the coming months, despite some cooling over the past two weeks (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 16 July 2014).

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall will be restricted to southern areas of the continent and across central Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely in central and far south-west Western Australia, and southern and western Tasmania.

Rainfall this week

Rainfall of between 50 and 100 millimetres was recorded in the Alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales and in western Tasmania. Small isolated areas near Alice Springs, Albany and Broome recorded falls above 50 millimetres. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 242 millimetres at Cygnet Bay, near Broome in north-west Western Australia.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 16 July 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology            Issued: 16/07/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$293 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, compared with US$309 in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$181 a tonne for the week ending 16 July 2014, compared with US$187 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$449 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, compared with US$452 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US83.7 cents a pound in the week ending 16 July 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US17.2 cents a pound in the week ending 16 July 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from Brazil’s Sugar Industry Association indicates that Brazil’s Central South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) crushed around 203 million tonnes of sugar cane in the first three months of the 2014-15 season (April to March), around 11 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. Compared with the same time last year, sugar production rose by around 16 per cent to 10.3 million tonnes while ethanol output rose by 10 per cent to 8.5 billion litres.

  • Data from India’s Meteorological Department indicates that between 1 June 2014 and 16 July 2014, India’s cumulative rainfall was 180.5 millimetres for the 2014 monsoon season (June to September). This compares with the long term average (1951-2000) over the same period of 298.9 millimetres.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1026 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 10 July 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 6 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $331 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $291 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $289 a tonne in the week ending 15 July 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $480 a tonne in the week ending 14 July 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 330 cents a kilogram in the week ending 11 July 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 364 cents a kilogram and rose by around 7 per cent in Victoria to average 385 cents a kilogram.

  • The saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in all states in the week ending 11 July 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 8 per cent in South Australia to average 534 cents a kilogram and by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 561 cents a kilogram. In other states, the indicator price fell by around 2 per cent in both Western Australia and New South Wales to average 579 cents a kilogram and 559 cents a kilogram, respectively.

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of whole milk powder was US$3088 a tonne on 15 July 2014, compared with US$3459 a tonne on 1 July 2014. Over the same period, the price declined by 10 per cent for anhydrous milk fat, 8 per cent for skim milk powder and 2 per cent for cheddar cheese.

  • The wholesale prices of selected fruit were generally higher in the week ending 12 July 2014, while the prices of blueberry and avocado (hass) were lower.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 12 July 2014. The wholesale prices of tomato (field gourmet), onion (brown), pumpkin (grey bulk) and broccoli were higher than the previous week.

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