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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


31 July 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 31 July 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 31 July 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • For the week ending 30 July 2014, rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was restricted to the far south of Australia, parts of eastern New South Wales and coastal far north Queensland.

  • A lack of soil moisture, cool temperatures and a high number of frosts are reportedly affecting crop growth across parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

  • While the chance of an El Niño event developing during 2014 has eased during the past 4 weeks, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific and the establishment of El Niño before year end cannot be ruled out.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 215 gigalitres this week and are at 64 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$285 a tonne in the week ending 29 July 2014, compared with US$286 in the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 325 cents a kilogram in the week ending 25 July 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices increased by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 375 cents a kilogram and fell by around 3 per cent in Victoria to average 369 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in most states in the week ending 25 July 2014, compared with the previous week. The largest fall occurred in Western Australia, where the indicator price declined by around 8 per cent to average 566 cents a kilogram. The indicator price fell by around 4 per cent in New South Wales to average 530 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in Victoria to average 539 cents a kilogram. In South Australia, the indicator price was largely unchanged at an average of 532 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • For the week ending 30 July 2014, rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was restricted to the far south of Australia, parts of eastern New South Wales and coastal far north Queensland. While parts of northern New South Wales recorded some rainfall during the past week, significant follow-up rainfall is required to support crop growth and development through to harvest.

  • A lack of soil moisture, cool temperatures and a high number of frosts are reportedly affecting crop growth across parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. District agronomists are beginning to report that some crops in the driest areas are likely to be utilised for grazing if there is no substantial rainfall across affected areas in the next two weeks.

  • A series of cold fronts have bought heavy rain and strong winds to southern parts of the country during the past week, with reports of some flooding and infrastructure damage across northern Tasmania. Continued inclement weather is forecast for the next few days, with severe weather warnings and sheep graziers alerts currently in place for parts of Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales.

  • Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean showing signs of a developing El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere has largely failed to respond. As a result, some cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean has now taken place, with most of the key indicators returning to neutral values. While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific and the establishment of El Niño before year end cannot be ruled out (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 29 July 2014).

  • The rainfall forecast for the eight day period ending 7 August 2014, indicates rainfall is likely to be limited to Tasmania, parts of South Australia, southern and alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales, and in central and north-east regions of the country. The highest falls, above 100 millimetres, are predicted to occur in western Tasmania.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 30 July 2014, rainfall was recorded mainly across south-west Western Australia, southern South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, eastern New South Wales and parts of southern and coastal Queensland. The highest recorded rainfall total was 99 millimetres at Mount Victoria, near Launceston in Tasmania.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 30 July 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology           Issued: 30/07/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$285 a tonne in the week ending 29 July 2014, compared with US$286 in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$181 a tonne in the week ending 30 July 2014, compared with US$183 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$430 a tonne in the week ending 29 July 2014, compared with US$433 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US81.2 cents a pound in the week ending 30 July 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US16.9 cents a pound in the week ending 30 July 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from Brazil’s Sugar Industry Association indicates that as at 16 July 2014 Brazil’s Central South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) crushed around 244 million tonnes of sugar cane in the 2014-15 season (April to March), around 6 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. Compared with the same time last year, sugar and ethanol production rose by around 7 per cent to 12.9 million tonnes and 10.3 billion litres, respectively.

  • Data from India’s Meteorological Department indicates that between 1 June 2014 and 30 July 2014, India’s cumulative rainfall was 331.6 millimetres for the 2014 monsoon season (June to September). This compares with the long term average (1951-2000) over the same period of 434.8 millimetres.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $473 a tonne in the week ending 30 July 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 325 cents a kilogram in the week ending 25 July 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices increased by 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 375 cents a kilogram and fell by around 3 per cent in Victoria to average 369 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) fell in most states in the week ending 25 July 2014, compared with the previous week. The largest fall occurred in Western Australia, where the indicator price declined by around 8 per cent to average 566 cents a kilogram. The indicator price fell by around 4 per cent in New South Wales to average 530 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in Victoria to average 539 cents a kilogram. In South Australia, the indicator price was largely unchanged at an average of 532 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 26 July 2014. The wholesale prices of pineapple (smoothleaf) and strawberry were higher than the previous week while the prices of watermelon (seedless) and kiwifruit (hayward) were lower.

  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables were generally higher in the week ending 26 July 2014.

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