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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


28 August 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 28 August 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 28 August 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • In the week ending 26 August 2014, rainfall of more than 50mm was recorded in parts of Tasmania, Victoria, eastern New South Wales, south eastern Queensland and the southwest of Western Australia. Heavy rainfall in parts of eastern New South Wales caused localised flooding.

  • The one-month rainfall outlook for September 2014 indicates that drier than normal conditions are more likely across much of Australia.

  • The three-month rainfall outlook (September to November) indicates that there is no strong tendency for wetter or drier than normal conditions across Australia during spring 2014.

  • Despite tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remaining at neutral levels, four out of seven international climate models suggest El Niño development remains possible during the coming months.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 53 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 67 per cent of total capacity. This is 16 percentage points or 3529 GL lower than this time last year.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$281 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $319 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 354 cents a kilogram in the week ending 22 August 2014, around 6 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose marginally in New South Wales to average 369 cents a kilogram and fell by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 367 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 22 August 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price rose by around 11 per cent in Western Australia to average 555 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 483 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price fell by around 5 per cent in South Australia to average 451 cents a kilogram and by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 494 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • In the week ending 26 August 2014, rainfall of more than 50mm was recorded in parts of Tasmania, Victoria, eastern New South Wales, south eastern Queensland and the southwest of Western Australia. Heavy rainfall in parts of eastern New South Wales caused localised flooding.

  • The one-month rainfall outlook suggests that drier than normal conditions are more likely across much of Australia during September 2014 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 August 2014).

  • The three-month rainfall outlook (September to November) indicates that the chances of exceeding the median rainfall ranges from 40 to 60 per cent over much of the continent, with only New South Wales and parts of central Victoria likely to see drier than normal conditions. This means that there is not a strong tendency for either a wetter or drier spring 2014 for most locations. The temperature outlook indicates that warmer days and nights are more likely for southern and eastern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 August 2014).

  • Despite tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remaining at neutral levels, four out of seven international climate models suggest El Niño development remains possible during the coming months. While a brief weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean earlier in August produced little warming of tropical sea surface temperatures, waters below the surface of the Pacific have warmed during the past few weeks. Climate models indicate that above-average temperatures near the surface are likely to persist or strengthen over the coming months and therefore the establishment of El Niño before year-end cannot be ruled out (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 26 August 2014).

  • Parts of Western Australia recorded day-time temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius in the week ending 26 August 2014, which is up to 6 degrees above average for this time of year. These above average temperatures follow above average temperatures in the past fortnight, with a number of August temperature records being broken.

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that falls are likely across southern Australia including Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, southern New South Wales and Victoria. The highest falls, up to 100 millimetres in some areas, are likely to occur in the southern tip of Western Australia, Tasmania and Victoria. Much of central and northern Australia is likely to receive no rainfall during the next eight days.

Rainfall this week

In the week ending 26 August 2014, rainfall in excess of 50mm was recorded in parts of Tasmania, Victoria, eastern New South Wales, south eastern Queensland and the southwest of Western Australia. The highest recorded rainfall was 221 millimetres at Comboyne, approximately 50 kilometres southwest of Port Macquarie in New South Wales.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 26 August 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology                     Issued: 26/08/2014

Commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$281 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$177 a tonne for the week ending 27 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$426 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US75.2 cents a pound in the week ending 27 August 2014, around 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US15.7 cents a pound in the week ending 27 August 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • Data from the China Cotton Association indicates that China sold around 2.5 million tonnes of cotton from government stocks to millers in 2013–14 (August to July), around 2 per cent higher than in the previous year.

  • Data from the Meteorological Department of India indicates that between 1 June 2014 and 27 August 2014, cumulative rainfall in India was 554 millimetres for the 2014 monsoon season (June to September). This compares with the long term average (1951–2000) over the same period of 678 millimetres.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1001 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 21 August 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 24 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $319 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, around 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $291 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, around 3 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $279 a tonne in the week ending 26 August 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $437 a tonne in the week ending 27 August 2014, around 5 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 354 cents a kilogram in the week ending 22 August 2014, around 6 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices rose marginally in New South Wales to average 369 cents a kilogram and fell by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 367 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 22 August 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price rose by around 11 per cent in Western Australia to average 555 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 483 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price fell by around 5 per cent in South Australia to average 451 cents a kilogram and by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 494 cents a kilogram.

  • The wholesale prices of selected fruit generally fell in the week ending 23 August 2014, while the price of watermelon (seedless) was higher.

  • The wholesale prices of selected vegetables generally fell or remained largely unchanged in the week ending 23 August 2014.

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