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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


11 September 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 11 September 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 11 September 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • In the week ending 10 September 2014, rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in the south-west of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia, much of eastern Victoria, northern Tasmania, eastern New South Wales and parts of southern and central Queensland.

  • Long-term (23-month) rainfall deficiencies have remained largely unchanged for much of Australia except for areas of western Victoria where deficiencies have increased in spatial extent and severity compared with the previous drought statement released on 7 August 2014 by the Bureau of Meteorology.

  • Despite tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remaining at neutral levels, five out of eight international climate models suggest El Niño development remains possible by the end of 2014.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 61 gigalitres (GL) and are at 67 per cent of total capacity. This is 16 percentage points or 3591 GL less than this time last year.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$279 a tonne in the week ending 9 September 2014, compared with US$282 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) rose by 1 per cent in the week ending 9 September 2014 to $319 a tonne.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1025 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 4 September 2014, 2 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 11 per cent lower than the previous sale.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 344 cents a kilogram in the week ending 5 September 2014, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price was largely unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 371 cents a kilogram but rose by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 369 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • In the week ending 10 September 2014, rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in south-west Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia, eastern Victoria, northern Tasmania, eastern New South Wales and parts of southern and central Queensland.

  • The Australian Mango Industry Association has reported that the industry is on track for one of its best seasons ever and is forecasting that this year’s crop is likely to reach eight million trays, which is well up on last year's crop of seven million trays.

  • The latest Bureau of Meteorology drought statement indicates that short-term (9-month) rainfall deficiencies have decreased in extent and severity over southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, while dry conditions during August saw an increase in southern Western Australia. Longer term (23-month) rainfall deficiencies have remained largely unchanged for much of Australia except for areas of western Victoria where deficiencies have increased in spatial extent and severity compared with the previous drought statement released on 7 August 2014 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 September 2014).

  • Although tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are currently within the neutral range, an area of warmer than average water remains in the sub-surface. Reflecting this, the development of a late season El Niño remains possible if these warmer waters rise to the surface and affect atmospheric circulation, or if another sustained westerly wind burst develops in the western Pacific. Five out of eight international climate models surveyed indicate that central tropical Pacific surface temperatures are likely to remain warmer than average, and may exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of the year (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 9 September 2014).

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that falls are likely to be restricted to the far south and east of Australia. The highest falls, up to 50 millimetres, are likely to occur in western Tasmania and the far south coast of New South Wales.

Rainfall this week

In the week ending 10 September 2014, rainfall was recorded across the south and east of Australia, including, Tasmania, south western Western Australia, the southern parts of South Australia, across Victoria and New South Wales and into south-eastern Queensland. The highest recorded rainfall total was 87 millimetres at Mount William, on the far northeast coastline of Tasmania.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 10 September 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology                        Issued: 10/09/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$279 a tonne in the week ending 9 September 2014, compared with US$282 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$166 a tonne in the week ending 10 September 2014, compared with US$175 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$418 a tonne in the week ending 9 September 2014, compared with US$428 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged around US74.1 cents a pound in the week ending 10 September 2014, compared with US75.3 cents a pound in the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US14.9 cents a pound in the week ending 10 September 2014, around 5 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • Data from the China Cotton Reserve indicates that from 28 November 2013 to 31 August 2014, the Chinese Government sold around 2.7 million tonnes of cotton lint to millers, compared with 4.2 million sold over the same period in 2012-13.

  • Data from the Brazil Sugar Industry Association indicates that as at 1 September 2014, the South-central region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) had crushed around 373 million tonnes of sugar cane this season, compared with around 365 million tonnes crushed over the same period in the previous season.

  • According to the India Meteorological Department, from 1 June to 10 September 2014, the cumulative rainfall was around 693 millimetres, compared with the long term average (1951–2000) for the same period of 775 millimetres.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) rose by 1 per cent in the week ending 9 September 2014 to $319 a tonne.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) decreased by around 1 per cent in the week ending 9 September 2014 to $284 a tonne.

  • The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) decreased by 1 per cent in the week ending 9 September 2014 to $278 a tonne.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) decreased by 2 per cent in the week ending 10 September 2014 to $441 a tonne.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed across the states in the week ending 5 September 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price rose by around 9 per cent in New South Wales to average 479 cents a kilogram and by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 480 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price fell by around 4 per cent in South Australia to average 436 cents a kilogram and by around 3 per cent in Western Australia to average 484 cents a kilogram.

  • The Queensland young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 344 cents a kilogram in the week ending 5 September 2014, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price was largely unchanged in New South Wales at an average of 371 cents a kilogram but rose by around 4 per cent in Victoria to average 369 cents a kilogram.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1025 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 4 September 2014, 2 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 11 per cent lower than the previous sale.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected fruit were mixed in the week ending 6 September 2014. The wholesale price of strawberry was higher than the previous week, while prices of banana (cavendish), watermelon (seedless) and kiwifruit (hayward) were lower.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 6 September 2014. Wholesale prices of tomato (field gourmet) and lettuce (iceberg) were higher than the previous week, while prices of cauliflower, bean (round stringless) and broccoli were lower.

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