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USDA Rice Outlook


15 October 2014

USDA Rice Outlook - 15 October 2014USDA Rice Outlook - 15 October 2014


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Production Projection Raised to 220.7 Million Cwt

The 2014/15 U.S. rice production forecast was raised 2.4 million cwt to 220.7 million cwt based on a higher yield. Yield forecasts were raised for Arkansas, Missouri and Texas. Total supplies are now 10 percent above a year earlier. Total domestic and residual use and exports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. The larger crop resulted in an increase in the ending stocks forecast to 40.5 million cwt.

The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice was lowered 30 cents on both ends to $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, well below $15.40 in 2013/14. The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range was raised 45 cents on both ends to $17.70-$18.70 per cwt, compared with $18.50 a year earlier.

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.5 million tons from last month’s forecast and a decrease of 1.1 million from the 2013/14 record global crop. Production forecasts for 2014/15 were lowered for India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, but raised for Russia and the United States. With global domestic and residual production projected at a record 481.7 million tons, global ending stocks are projected to decline 6 percent to 104.2 million tons, the lowest since 2010/11.

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade remains forecast at a record 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from this year. Record and near-record purchases by China and Sub-Saharan Africa continue to support the robust trade levels. Sri Lanka’s 2014 and 2015 import forecasts were raised this month due to a smaller crop.

Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have changed little over the past month, while price quotes from Vietnam have decreased. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice continue to decline as the southern harvest nears completion.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Production Projected at 220.7 Million Cwt

The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 220.7 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), an increase of 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was the result of a higher yield forecast. The area estimate is unchanged from last month. The long-grain production forecast was raised 1.8 million cwt to 160.0 million cwt, an increase of 21 percent from a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain production forecast was raised 0.7 million cwt to 60.7 million cwt, up almost 5 percent from a year earlier.

U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped. Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the 442,000-acre area expansion in 2014/15. In contrast, California’s 2014/15 plantings are down 24 percent from a year earlier, a result of severe drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions.

The average yield is projected at 7,584 pounds per acre, up 83 pounds from last month’s forecast but still 110 pounds below the year-earlier record. Yield forecasts were raised this month for Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas. In contrast, California’s 2014/15 yield forecast was reduced. Yield forecasts for Louisiana and Missouri were unchanged this month.

Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas. The Arkansas 2014/15 yield is projected at 7,530 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from last month’s forecast but still slightly below the year-earlier record. Louisiana’s 2014/15 yield of 7,100 pounds per acre is 200 pounds below the year-earlier record. Mississippi’s average yield of 7,000 pounds per acre is 5 percent below the year-earlier record. The Missouri average yield of 6,900 pounds per acre is 2 percent below the year earlier record.

At a record 8,700 pounds per acre, the average Texas yield is 12 percent above both the September forecast and a year earlier. California’s 2014/15 average yield is forecast at 8,500 pounds per acre, 20 pounds above a year earlier but still 100 pounds below the record yields achieved in 2004/05 and 2009/10.

Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 30.8-million cwt projected increase in U.S. rice production in 2014/15. At 110.7 million cwt, Arkansas’ rice crop is 37 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. The bumper crop is almost totally the result of expanded area. Louisiana’s 2014/15 rice production remains forecast at a record 32.7 million cwt, an increase of 8 percent from a year ago, a result of larger plantings. Mississippi’s 2014/15 rice crop remains projected at 13.3 million cwt, up 45 percent from a year earlier, a result of a substantial area expansion. Record plantings boosted Missouri’s rice crop 34 percent to 14.7 million cwt. The 2014/15 Texas rice crop is forecast at 13.0 million cwt, a 16-percent increase from a year earlier, a result of expanded plantings and a record yield. In contrast, California’s 2014/15 rice production is projected to decline 24 percent from a year earlier to 36.4 million cwt, the smallest since 1998/99. The production decline is the result of a 24-percent drop in California rice plantings.

Despite a cool, wet spring that delayed plantings 1-2 weeks in much of the South, by early October progress of the 2014/15 U.S. rice crop was nearly equal to the U.S. 5-year average. For the week ending October 5, 70 percent of the U.S. 2014/15 rice crop was reported harvested, just 1 percentage point behind the U.S. 5-year average. In Arkansas, 76 percent of the 2014/15 rice crop was harvested by October 5, 1 percentage point ahead of the State’s 5-year average. Louisiana’s 2014/15 rice crop was 99 percent harvested by October, also 1 percentage point ahead of the State’s 5- year average. Mississippi’s 2014/15 rice crop was 82 percent harvested by October 5, ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 75 percent. In contrast, Missouri’s 2014/15 harvest was reported 61 percent complete by October 5, 7 percentage points behind the State’s 5-year average. California’s 2014/15 rice harvest was reported 28 percent complete by October 5, compared with a 5-year average of 33 percent. Harvest is complete in Texas, typical for the State by early October.

In Texas and Louisiana, some growers typically harvest a partial second crop from the stubble remaining in the field after the main harvest. This crop is referred to as a ratoon crop, and its yields are much lower than for the main harvest. The ratoon crop is typically harvested in late October and early November. The reported crop harvest progress does not include the ratoon crop.

U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected Up 10 Percent from 2013/14

Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 273.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. This month’s upward revision in total supplies is due to the larger crop forecast. Carryin and imports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports, with total supplies the highest since the record 297.9 million cwt was reported in 2010/11.

By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 194.7 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. In 2014/15, a larger long-grain crop more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies are projected at 76.5 million cwt, an increase of 0.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.

The all-rice beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 remains estimated at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The mediumand short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not specified by class.

Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the expected increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is likely to be larger in 2014/15. Long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from the year-earlier record. Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for much of the remaining U.S. long-grain rice imports.

Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice. The United States does not typically import brokens from Australia, preferring lower-priced sources such as Vietnam. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Italy supplies a small amount of Arborio rice to the United States each year.

U.S. 2014/15 Exports Forecast To Increase 10 Percent in 2014/15

Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 233.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total longgrain use in 2014/15 remains projected at 169.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use remains projected at 64.0 million cwt, 6 percent higher than a year earlier.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.

Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 102.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The increase in exports forecast for 2014/15 is largely based on expectations of more competitive U.S. prices than in 2013/14, likely boosting U.S. sales to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, two key markets where the United States competes with Asian exporters.

Through October 2, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales totaled 966,400 tons (product-weight), 28 percent larger than a year earlier. Outstanding commercial sales were 54 percent higher than a year earlier, while commercial exports were 36 percent behind a year earlier. Through October 2, U.S. commercial sales and shipments were substantially ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela, all three of them typically large markets for U.S. rice.

U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports remain projected at 70.0 million cwt, 13 percent above a year earlier. U.S. long-grain prices are projected to be lower and to carry a smaller price difference over Asian competitors, major factors driving the projected increase in U.S. long-grain exports. The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. long-grain rice, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments. Rough-rice accounts for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere. The major Asian exporters do not ship rough rice out of the region and ship very little within Asia. The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice, almost exclusively taking milled-rice from the United States, and are expected to account for most of the increase in U.S. shipments in 2014/15.

Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Northeast Asia—China, South Korea, and Taiwan—taking about twothirds of total U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. These annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September and are all the result of agreements under the World Trade Organization. Australia is the major supplier of rice to Oceania, with U.S. shipments typically less than 1 million cwt.

By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice.

Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) remain projected at 68.0 million cwt, 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. The expected increase in 2014/15 is based on a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors and larger U.S. supplies.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 27 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.4 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 25.7 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 59 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 15.2 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.

The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 12.5 million cwt, up 0.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 19.5 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.

U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered

The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, down 30 cents on both the high and low end of the previous forecast, well below $15.40 per cwt in 2013/14, and the lowest since 2010/11. The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $17.70-$18.70 per cwt, up 45 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. This compares with $18.50 per cwt in 2013/14. The upward revision in the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is based on reported NASS prices by region through August and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year. In 2014/15, a larger than normal share of the medium- and shortgrain crop will come from the South. Southern medium- and short-grain rice typically sells at prices more than 20 percent below California prices.

The 2014/15 all-rice SAFP was lowered 10 cents on both ends to $13.80-$14.80 per cwt due to the lower long-grain SAFP. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14.

In late September, NASS reported a mid-September U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $14.60 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised August estimate. The August price was lowered $1.00 to $14.30 from a preliminary $15.30. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South.

For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-September NASS price was reported at $20.20 per cwt, up 60 cents from the revised August price. The August price was lowered 30 cents from its preliminary estimate to $19.60 per cwt. By region, the California mid-September medium- and short-grain price was reported at $21.60 per cwt, up $1.30 from August. The August 2014 southern medium- and short-grain price is estimated at $15.60 per cwt. There was no preliminary southern medium- and short-grain price reported for September. This is the first month that NASS has reported U.S. medium- and short-grain prices by region.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2014/15 Lowered for India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.5 million tons from last month’s forecast and a decrease of 1.1 million from the 2013/14 record global crop. This is the first decline in global production since 2009/10. The slight decline in global production in 2014/15 is the result of a lower average yield. In contrast, at 161.0 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is the highest on record. Brazil, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for most of the projected area increase, more than offsetting smaller plantings in India. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at 4.40 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), fractionally below 2013/14 and below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.

South Asia accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global production, a result of adverse weather. The 2014/15 India crop forecast was lowered 1.0 million tons to 102.0 million based on a smaller projected yield. The yield was lowered this month due to inadequate moisture during much of the planting and growth stages of the kharif crop, which typically accounts for about 85 percent of India’s total rice crop. In September, the Government of India issues its First Advance Estimates for the 20104/15 kharif rice crop of about 88.0 million tons, down from 91.7 million tons in 2013/14. Total rice production in India in 2014/15 is projected to decline 4 percent from the year-earlier record, a result of both smaller area and a weaker yield. India is currently the largest rice exporter in the world.

Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 rice production was lowered 350,000 tons to 2.45 million tons due to drought that reduced its yala crop about 30 percent from a year earlier. The yala crop accounts for about 30 percent of Sri Lanka’s annual rice production and was harvested in August-September. The maha crop, which will be harvested next March-April, accounts for the remaining 70 percent of Sri Lanka’s production. Sri Lanka’s 2014/15 total rice production is projected to be 14 percent below a year earlier, the smallest since 2008/09, mostly due to a lower yield.

Pakistan’s 2014/15 rice production projection was reduced 0.2 million tons to 6.5 million tons due to severe flooding in September in Punjab that has lowered yields. This is the fourth flood since 2010 to hit the rice growing areas of Pakistan. Production in 2014/15 is down 0.2 million tons from 2013/15 and 0.4 million tons below Pakistan’s 2008/09 record. Pakistan typically exports about 60 percent of its annual rice production, shipping both its premium basmati rice and regular milled white rice and parboiled rice. Production forecasts were also lowered this month for Madagascar and Senegal.

These reductions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Tanzania’s 2014/15 production was raised 132,000 tons to 1.39 million tons based on a higher yield. The crop is up 4 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Second, the U.S. 2014/15 rice crop was raised 77,000 tons to 7.06 million based on a higher yield reported by the National Agricultural Statistic’s Service. U.S. production in 2014/15 is up more than 15 percent from a year earlier, a result of expanded area. Finally, Russia’s 2014/15 production was raised 25,000 tons to 675,000 tons based on Ministry of Agriculture data indicating a higher yield.

The 2013/14 global crop estimate was increased 0.5 million tons to 476.6 million tons, the highest on record. There were two upward revisions in Asia. First, Pakistan’s 2013/14 production was increased 100,000 tons to 6.7 million tons based on a higher yield. Second, the Philippines’ production estimate was increased 45,000 tons to 11.86 million tons based on a slightly higher yield reported by the Government. In South America, Uruguay’s 2013/14 crop forecast was increased 34,000 tons to 944,000 tons due to a higher yield. Uruguay exports most of its crop. There were several 2013/14 crop revisions made this month for Sub-Saharan Africa, with crop estimates raised for Cameroon, Kenya, Mali, and Tanzania.

Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month’s forecast but still 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 6.2 million tons. Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for the bulk of the projected increase in global consumption and residual use in 2014/15.

Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and 6 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2006/07. India accounts for most of this month’s downward revision in the 2014/15 global ending stocks forecast. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 21.6 percent, down from 23.2 percent a year earlier.

Thailand Projected To Be Largest Rice Exporter in 2015

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade remains forecast at a record 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from this year. For both years, the robust trade level is largely due to record and near-record imports by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in much of Asia and South America.

There were no 2015 export revisions this month. On an annual basis, Thailand is projected to replace India as the largest rice exporter, shipping 10.0 million tons, an increase of 5 percent from 2014 and the highest since the record 10.6 million was shipped in 2011. The projected increase for Thailand in 2015 is based on more competitive prices and abundant supplies. In contrast, India’s projected exports of 8.7 million tons in 2015 are 13 percent below this year, a result of a smaller crop and higher domestic use. The number three exporter in 2015 is Vietnam, projected to ship 6.7 million tons of rice in 2015, a 3-percent increase from a year earlier. Vietnam’s supplies in 2014/15 are projected to be the highest on record, while little, if any, growth in consumption is expected. Pakistan’s exports are projected to remain unchanged from this year’s near-record 3.9 million tons. These four countries plus the United States account for about 85 percent of global rice exports.

The only 2015 import revision this month was a 180,000-ton increase in Sri Lanka’s imports to 200,000 tons based on a smaller crop. These are the largest imports for Sri Lanka since 2004. In 2015, China is projected to again be the largest importer, taking a record 3.7 million tons and accounting for 9 percent of global imports.

China emerged as a major importer in 2012 after being a major exporter since the early 1960s. Nigeria is projected to import a record 3.5 million tons of rice in 2015, making it the second largest importer.

The 2014 global trade forecast was lowered fractionally to 41.2 million tons, still 1.8 million tons above a year earlier and the second highest on record.

There were two 2014 export revisions this month. First, Brazil’s 2014 exports were reduced 110,000 tons to 840,000 tons based pace to date. Second, Uruguay’s 2014 exports were increased 30,000 tons to 930,000 tons based on a larger crop and pace to date. Both countries are major South American rice exporters. There were two 2014 import revisions this month. First, Sri Lanka’s 2014 imports were raised 80,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on a smaller crop. Second, Turkey’s 2014 imports were increased 20,000 tons to 350,000 tons based on pace to date. China and Nigeria are projected to be the largest rice importers in 2014, taking 3.5 million and 3.0 million tons respectively.

Thailand’s Prices Show Little Change; U.S. Long-grain Prices Continue Dropping

Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have changed little over the past month. Prices are largely being supported by a slower-than-expected pace of sales of Government held stocks which remain at a virtual record level, which has temporarily tightened the available supply situation. The Government has announced that it will issue a public tender of around 200,000 metric tons on October 22, 2014. The harvest of the 2014/15 main crop should begin next month and will likely put downward pressure on prices.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $448 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $1 from the week ending September 9. Prices for Thailand’s 5- percent brokens were quoted at $435 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $3 from the week ending September 9. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $435 per ton for the week ending October 13, unchanged from September 9.

Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down slightly from early September. For the week ending October 13, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $330 per ton, down $3 from the week ending September 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,075 per ton for the week ending October 13, up $10 from the week ending September 9. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.

Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased slightly over the past month. For the week ending October 14, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $440 per ton, down $10 from the week ending September 9. Vietnam is facing strong price competition from other Asian sources. Vietnam’s sales have been strong this year, especially to Southeast Asia and China, with Vietnam the largest supplier to China. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $5 per ton below quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, making Thailand a competitive seller. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton.

U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice continue to decline. For the week ending October 14, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $529 per ton, down $11 from the week ending September 9. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $96 per ton, down $12 from a month earlier and the lowest since April 2013. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $325 per ton for the week ending October 14, unchanged from a month earlier.

Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $948 per ton for the week ending October 14, up $33 from the week ending September 9. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice are quoted at $1,040 per ton for the week ending October14, down $90 from early September. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report. 

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