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USDA World Agricultural Production


17 November 2014

USDA World Agricultural Production November 2014USDA World Agricultural Production November 2014


USDA World Agricultural Production

China’s 2014/15 corn production is estimated at 214.0 million tons, down 3.0 million tons or 1.0 percent from last month and down 4.5 million tons or 2.0 percent from last year’s record crop. Area is estimated at 36.8 million hectares, surpassing last year’s record by 1.0 percent. Area has shown a strong upward trend in recent years, particularly in Northeast China, as farmers have switched to corn from less profitable crops such as soybeans. Yield is estimated at 5.82 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month and down 3.4 percent from last year’s record.

The revision is based on information from crop models and satellite imagery, and reports from local government and industry sources. A serious drought developed in July and August in parts of Northeast China and the North China Plain. At its peak in late August, the drought affected approximately 5 million hectares of crops (mostly corn) in the critical reproductive/filling stage. Sharply lower yields have been reported in some of the drought-impacted areas, particularly in Henan and Liaoning provinces. However better than average yields are expected in Heilongjiang, northwest China, and central/southern China due to mostly favorable weather during the growing season.

Widespread rainfall in September ended the drought and provided limited help to late-maturing corn on the North China Plain. The wetness delayed the start of the harvest season, but generally warm and dry weather in October allowed the harvest to progress rapidly. Local sources report that overall crop quality is very good and better than last year. (For more information, please contact Paulette Sandene at paulette.sandene@fas.usda.gov.)

European Union Corn: Rainfall Leads to Record Crop; Harvest Delays in Southeast

European Union (EU) 2014/15 corn production is estimated at a record 73.1 million tons, up 2.0 million tons or 2.9 percent from last month, and up 8.9 million tons or 14 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.6 million hectares, up 0.03 million or 0.3 percent from last month, but down 0.2 million hectares or 1.6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 7.62 tons per hectare, up 2.5 percent from last month, 15.6 percent from last year and 12.3 percent from the 5-year average. Corn yield has benefitted greatly from above-average rainfall that has dominated European weather every month since June. Continued damp conditions in southeast Europe, including Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, have hampered harvest operations. In these areas, if the weather continues to delay harvesting, farmers will continue harvesting into the winter.

As mechanical drying is very expensive, farmers opt for a later harvest, allowing corn to dry in the field and incurring less drying cost from the delay. Production estimates increased the most in southeast Europe. Hungary’s production is estimated up 7 percent from last month and 35 percent from last year, to 9.1 million tons. Romania’s production is estimated up 0.5 million tons or 5 percent from last month, to 11.1 million. Additional large month-to-month increases include Croatia (up 0.25 million tons), Bulgaria (up 0.2 million), and Germany (up 0.17 million tons). Estimated production from two of EU’s largest corn producers, France and Italy, remains unchanged at 17.0 million tons and 8.2 million tons, respectively. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov.)

Australia Wheat: Persistent Dry Conditions Lower Production

Australia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, down 1.0 million tons or 4.0 percent from last month, and down 3.0 million tons or 11 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million hectares or 2.1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.74 tons per hectare, which is below the 5-year average of 1.95 tons per hectare. Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australian wheatproducing states at varying times. September precipitation is the most influential factor for determining Australia’s wheat yield. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into harvest, reflecting belowaverage September and October rainfall in the eastern wheat belt while Western Australia, the largest producing state, received beneficial rains. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at james.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)

European Union Wheat: Forecast Increases on Record Crop

European Union (EU) wheat production for 2014/15 is estimated at a record 155.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons or 1.0 percent from last month, and up 8.6 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 26.8 million hectares, up 0.25 million from last month, and up 4.1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 5.79 tons per hectare, equivalent to last month, but 4.3 percent above last year and 6.8 percent above the 5-year average. Harvest reports continue to increase the record 2014/15 wheat crop.

The month-to-month increases were based on recent harvest data with the largest being a 0.6- million-ton increase for Poland. Production for Poland is estimated at a record 11.2 million tons, 18 percent higher than last year’s crop and 20 percent above the 5-year average. Record output is also estimated for Romania’s wheat at 8.1 million tons, Bulgaria at 4.9 million, the Czech Republic at 5.4 million, Finland at 1.0 million, Germany at 27.7 million, and Sweden at 2.9 million tons. France, the largest wheat producer in the EU, did not harvest a record crop at 39.1 million tons, but produced its largest crop since 2004/05. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov.)

Egypt Wheat: Estimated Production Reduced for 2014/15 and 2013/14

Egypt’s wheat production for 2014/15 is estimated at 8.2 million tons, down 0.75 million or 8.4 percent from last month, and down 0.05 million tons or 0.6 percent from last year’s revised estimate. Area is estimated at 1.3 million hectares, down 0.1 million or 7 percent from last month, and down 0.05 million hectares or 4 percent from last year. Estimates for the 2014/15 and 2013/14 seasons have been revised based on information from the USDA Office of Agricultural Affairs, in Cairo. The decrease is attributed to an expected 25 percent increase in production costs, resulting from the Egyptian government’s partial lifting of fuel and fertilizer subsidies. As a result, diesel prices have increased by 63 percent and the price of subsidized fertilizers by 33 percent. The 2013/14 production estimate has been reduced by 0.4 million tons, from 8.65 million to 8.25 million tons, while area remains at 1.35 million hectares. During the 2013/14 season a shortage of subsidized nitrogen fertilizer, due to a reduction in energy supplied to fertilizer plants, resulted in reduced fertilizer applications and lower wheat yields. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov.)

Kazakhstan Wheat: Harvest Reports Suggest Curtailed Harvest

USDA forecasts Kazakhstan wheat production for 2014/15 at 12.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 4.0 percent from last month and down 1.9 million or 14 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 11.7 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month and down 1.3 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.03 tons per hectare, essentially unchanged from last month, down 4.7 percent from last year, and 6.9 percent below the 5-year average. The decrease in estimated output is based on daily data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicating that harvest operations are winding down in the three major wheat-producing territories, with as much as 10 percent of the sown area still unharvested. Crop development was delayed this season due in part to unusually cool, wet weather during July. As a result, the harvest campaign began later than usual. The harvest was further complicated by wet weather in October, including snow at the end of the month. Ministry reports indicate that cumulative total-grain yield as of November 4 is down about 5 percent from last year. Wheat accounts for approximately 75 percent of total grain output in Kazakhstan. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at mark.lindeman@fas.usda.gov.)

Russia Sunflowerseed: Harvest Updates Indicating Lower Yields

USDA estimates Russia sunseed production for 2014/15 at 9.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 5.3 percent from last month and down 1.6 million or 15 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 6.5 million hectares against 6.8 million last year. Yield is estimated at 1.38 tons per hectare, down 5.3 percent from last month, down 11 percent from last year, but 8.5 percent above the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in estimated output is based on harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture citing lower yield than earlier forecast by USDA. According to Ministry data, harvest was 85 percent complete by the end of October with yield reported at 1.43 tons per hectare, down 13 percent from the same date last year.

Cumulative yield typically declines throughout the course of the harvest campaign as the harvest progresses from the higher- to the lower-yielding territories. The year-to-year drop in yield is attributed chiefly to excessive summer heat in the Central and Volga Districts, which together accounted for over 60 percent of last year’s output. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at mark.lindeman@fas.usda.gov.)

European Union Rapeseed: Record Yield and Production

European Union (EU) rapeseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at a record 24.0 million tons, up 0.5 million tons or 2 percent from last month, and up 14 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 6.78 million hectares, down 0.4 percent or 0.03 million from last month, but up 0.4 percent or 0.03 million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 3.54 tons per hectare MT/Ha, 3 percent above last month, 13 percent above last year, and 15 percent above the 5-year average. Harvest reports continue to increase the record 2014/15 rapeseed crop. A number of adjustments were made to the EU member nation crop based on latest reported data. The largest November rapeseed change was a 0.3- million-ton increase for Poland.

Poland’s crop is estimated at 3.1 million tons on 0.9 million hectares. While the 2014/15 estimate does not reflect a record area for Poland, the 3.31 MT/Ha yield and the 3.1 million ton production estimates are both records. The second largest EU rapeseed change was for the German crop, which increased 0.15 million tons to 6.25 million tons, with a record yield of 4.46 MT/Ha. Typically the EU’s second largest rapeseed producer is France. Production in France is estimated at 5.5 million tons, with a yield of 3.66 tons per hectare. United Kingdom’s crop benefitted from improved 2014 season weather and is estimated to harvest 2.5 million tons from 0.7 million hectares. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov).

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