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USDA Rice Outlook


13 November 2014

USDA Rice Outlook - 13 November 2014USDA Rice Outlook - 13 November 2014


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Export Forecast Lowered to 68.0 Million Cwt

The only revision this month to the U.S. 2014/15 all-rice balance sheet was a 0.4-million cwt increase in production to 221.1 million cwt (rough basis). Although total exports remain forecast at 102.0 million cwt, there was a 2.0-million cwt shift from long-grain to combined medium- and short-grain exports and a 1.0 million cwt shift to rough-rice exports from milled-rice exports. The larger crop forecast raised the ending stocks forecast to 40.9 million cwt, nearly 29 percent above a year earlier.

The combined medium- and short-grain U.S. 2014/15 SAFP range was raised $1.30 on both ends to $19.00-$20.00 per cwt, the second highest on record. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $12.20-$13.20 per cwt, well below $15.40 per cwt in 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 40 cents on both ends to $14.20-$15.20 per cwt due to the higher medium- and short-grain SAFP.

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.0 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast and 1.3 million tons below the year-earlier record. Crop forecasts for 2014/15 were lowered for Australia, Egypt, and Afghanistan. The 2014/15 carryin estimate was reduced 4.0 million tons to 106.5 million tons, a major factor behind a tighter global supply situation in 2014/15. Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.9 million tons, 3.0 million tons larger than a year earlier. With consumption exceeding production by almost 8.0 million tons, 2014/15 ending stocks are projected to drop to 98.6 million tons, the lowest since 2009/10.

The total calendar year 2015 global rice trade forecast was raised 0.4 million tons to 41.6 million tons, just 0.2 million tons below the year-earlier record. Export forecasts were raised for Thailand but lowered for Australia and Egypt. Import forecasts were raised this month for China and the Philippines, with China’s 2015 imports the highest on record.

Prices for high and medium grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 1-2 percent over the past month, largely due to sales of Government-held rice stocks and the onset of a bumper main-season harvest. Price quotes from Vietnam have also decreased over the past month. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier, while prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are down from a month earlier.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Production Projected Up 22 Percent from 2013/14

The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 221.1 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), an increase of 0.38 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 16 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was the result of a slightly higher yield forecast for Mississippi. The U.S. and State area estimates are unchanged from last month. The long-grain production forecast was raised 0.24 million cwt to 160.3 million cwt, an increase of 22 percent from a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain production forecast was raised 0.14 million cwt to 60.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier.

U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped due to drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions.

The average yield is projected at 7,597 pounds per acre, up 13 pounds from last month’s forecast but still 97 pounds below the year-earlier record. The 2014/15 U.S. rice yield is the second highest U.S. yield on record. Mississippi’s 2014/15 yield was raised 200 pounds to 7,200 pounds per acre, boosting the Mississippi production forecast 0.38 million cwt to 13.7 million cwt. Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas. Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the 31.2-million cwt projected increase in U.S. rice production for the period. Except for a small amount of the Gulf Coast ratoon crop, all of the 2014 U.S. crop was harvested by early November.

U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Projected Up 10 Percent from 2013/14

Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 273.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. These are the second highest total supplies of U.S. rice on record. This month’s slight upward revision in total supplies is due to the larger crop forecast. Carryin and imports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports.

By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 195.0 million cwt, up 0.24 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. In 2014/15, a larger long-grain crop more than offset a smaller long-grain carryin and weaker long-grain imports. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies are projected at 76.1 million cwt, an increase of 0.14 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and shortgrain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.

The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium and short-grain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not specified by class.

Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the expected increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is likely to be larger and lower priced in 2014/15. Long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from the year-earlier record. Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for much of the remaining U.S. long-grain rice imports.

Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice. The United States does not typically import brokens from Australia, preferring lower priced sources such as Vietnam. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Italy supplies a small amount of Arborio rice to the United States each year.

U.S. 2014/15 Long-Grain Exports Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 68.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 233.0 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total longgrain use in 2014/15 is projected at 167.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined mediumand short-grain rice total use is projected at 66.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month and 9 percent higher than a year earlier.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier.Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier.

Total exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 102.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The increase in exports forecast for 2014/15 is largely based on expectations that more competitive U.S. prices will increase sales to major markets in the Western Hemisphere, especially Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Haiti.

Through October 30, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales totaled 1.22 million tons (product-weight), 15 percent larger than a year earlier. Outstanding commercial sales were 33 percent higher than a year earlier, while commercial exports were 12 percent behind a year earlier.Through October 30, U.S. commercial sales and shipments were substantially ahead of a year earlier to Haiti, Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela, four typically large markets for U.S. rice.

U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month’s forecast but still 10 percent above a year earlier. This month’s downward revision was based on U.S. Census data through September, commercial sales and shipments through October 30, and expectations regarding sales the remainder of the market year. Through October 30, U.S. sales and shipments were weaker than expected to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. long-grain rice, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments, with rough rice accounting for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere. The major Asian rice exporters do not ship rough rice out of the region and ship milled rice mostly within Asia and to Africa. The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice, taking almost exclusively milled-rice from the United States. The U.S. typically faces its strongest competition with Asian exporters in these markets.

Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision was based on expected weaker exports from Egypt and Australia. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Northeast Asia—China, South Korea, and Taiwan—typically taking about twothirds of total U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. These annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September and are all the result of agreements under the World Trade Organization. Australia is the major supplier of rice to Oceania. U.S. shipments to Oceania are typically less than 1 million cwt.

By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 22 percent from a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough rice were ahead of a year earlier to Mexico, Turkey, and Venezuela. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, typically taking California rice.

Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 67.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Through October 30, U.S. milled-rice sales and exports to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have been behind expectations. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. The expected increase in 2014/15 in U.S. milled-rice exports is based on lower U.S. prices, a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors, and larger U.S. supplies.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 28.5 percent larger than a year earlier.

The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.6 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 28.0 million cwt, up 2.2 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 73 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.7 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.

The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 10.6 million cwt, down 1.9 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 20 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.1 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.

U.S. 2014/15 Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised

The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $19.00-$20.00 per cwt, up $1.30 on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. The 2014/15 SAFP is up from $18.50 per cwt in 2013/14 and is the second highest on record. The upward revision in the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is based on reported NASS prices by region through September and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year. In California, where 70 percent or more of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop is typically grown, production is down nearly 24 percent from a year earlier due to reduced plantings, a major factor behind the higher SAFP in 2014/15. Tighter global supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are also pushing prices higher. However, because a larger than normal share of the medium- and short-grain crop will come from the South in 2014/15, the price increase will be limited.

The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $12.20- $13.20 per cwt, well below the $15.40 per cwt estimated for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was raised 40 cents on both ends to $14.20-$15.20 per cwt due to the higher medium- and short-grain SAFP. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14.

In late October, NASS reported a mid-October U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $14.00 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised September estimate. The September price was lowered 90 cents to $13.70 from a preliminary $14.60. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South.

For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-October NASS price was reported at $18.10 per cwt, down $2.30 from the revised September price. The September price was raised 20 cents from its preliminary estimate to $20.40 per cwt. By region, the California mid-October medium- and short-grain price was estimated at $21.00 per cwt, down $1.50 from $22.50 a month earlier. The mid- October 2014 southern medium- and short-grain price is estimated at $15.10 per cwt, down 60 cents from September. NASS began reporting U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly prices by region in October 2014, starting with the August 2014 prices.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2014/15 Lowered for Afghanistan, Australia, and Egypt

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.0 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast, the result of a slightly lower area forecast. Medium- and short-grain producers account for the bulk of the downward revision. Global rice production in 2014/15 is 1.3 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop and the first decline in global production since 2009/10. The decline in global production in 2014/15 is the result of a slightly lower average yield. In contrast, at 160.9 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is fractionally above a year earlier and the highest on record. Brazil, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for most of the projected area increase in 2014/15, more than offsetting smaller plantings in India. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at 4.40 tons per hectare (on a roughrice basis), fractionally below 2013/14 and below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.

There were three country-specific downward revisions in 2014/15 production forecasts this month. First, Egypt’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 0.4 million tons to 4.5 million tons due to a 145,000 -hectare reduction in the area estimate to 650,000 hectares. Second, Australia’s 2014/15 rice crop forecast (to be harvested in April-May 2015) was lowered 144,000 tons to 504,000 tons, a result of a 20,000-hectare decline in the area estimate to 70,000 hectares. The area estimate was lowered based on below-normal reservoir levels. Rice area in Australia is 8 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2009/10. Production in 2014/15 is projected to be 16 percent below a year earlier. Both Australia and Egypt are major exporters of medium- and short-grain rice. These two crop revisions have tightened global exportable supplies of medium- and short-grain rice. Third, Afghanistan’s 2014/15 rice production forecast was reduced 49,000 tons to 471,000 tons based on UN-FAO data. These three downward revisions were partially offset by small upward revisions for South Korea, Mexico, and the United States.

Global Ending Stocks Forecasts Lowered for 2013/14 and 2014/15

Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.9 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 3.0 million tons larger than a year earlier. India and Thailand account for most of this month’s upward revision in 2014/15 global consumption and residual use. Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 7.9 million tons. On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for the bulk of the projected increase in global consumption and residual use in 2014/15.

The 2013/14 global consumption and residual use estimate was raised 3.8 million tons to 480.0 million tons this month. India accounts for most of the upward revision. At a record 99.2 million tons, India’s 2013/14 consumption and residual use estimate is up 2.6 million tons from the previous estimate. The higher consumption and residual use estimate for India was largely based on the decision in June by the newly-elected National Democratic Alliance Government to release an additional 5.0 million tons of rice for domestic distribution through the Public Distribution System in an effort contain domestic inflation. The higher domestic and residual use is also supported by stocks and trade estimates recently reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in New Delhi.

Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 98.6 million tons, down 5.7 million tons from last month’s forecast and 7 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2009/10. The substantial decline in global ending stocks in 2014/15 is primarily due to a 4.9 million-ton decline in total supplies from 2013/14. A 3.6 million-ton decline in carryin and a 1.3 million-ton smaller crop account for the smaller supplies in 2014/15.

India accounts for most of this month’s downward revision in the 2014/15 global ending stocks forecast. India’s 2014/15 ending stocks’ forecast was lowered 4.0 million tons from the previous forecast to 16.8 million tons, mostly due to a lowered 2014/15 carryin estimate. The 2014/15 ending stocks are the lowest for India since 2007/08. Thailand’s 2014/15 ending stocks’ forecast was lowered as well, from 13.1 million tons to 11.5 million tons, the smallest since 2011/12 but still well above pre-2011/12 levels. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 20.4 percent, down from 22.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2006/07.

The 2013/14 global ending stocks estimate was lowered 4.0 million tons to 106.5 million, mostly due to a lower stocks estimate for India. At 22.5 million tons, India’s 2013/14 ending stocks are down 3.0 million tons from the previous estimate and 2.9 million below a year earlier. The stocks revisions for India were based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in New Delhi.

Thailand Projected To Return as the Largest Rice Exporter in 2014 and 2015

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 41.6 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast but still 0.2 million tons below the yearearlier record. For both years, the robust trade level is largely due to record and near-record imports by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in much of Asia and South America.

There were four export revisions for 2015 this month. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was raised 800,000 tons to a record 10.8 million tons based on expectations of continued Government sales of its rice stocks and more competitive prices. Thailand’s 2015 exports are 5 percent larger than the year-earlier revised level, with Thailand now the largest rice exporter in 2014 and 2015. Thailand was the largest rice exporter from the early 1980s until 2012 when India overtook it, largely due to Thailand’s paddy purchase program that made Thailand uncompetitive in global markets. This policy ended in May 2014. Both Thailand and India export longgrain rice, including premium aromatic varieties. Thailand is also the largest exporter of glutinous rice, a specialty rice popular in much of Asia. The European Union’s 2015 export forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 220,000 tons based on larger sales in 2014.

These two upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions. First, Egypt’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 375,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on smaller production and Egypt’s new export policy, which requires exporters to supply the Government 1 ton of medium-grain rice for every ton of rice they export. Exporters would also have to pay an export license fee of $280 per ton exported, which would raise their export cost to approximately $480/MT and make Egyptian rice uncompetitive in many markets. Second, Australia’s 2015 export forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 400,000 tons based on smaller supplies. Both Egypt and Australia are major exporters of medium- and short-grain rice.

There were five import revisions this month for 2015. First, China’s 2015 import forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 4.0 million tons based on a stronger pace of imports in 2014, with Vietnam the largest supplier. This makes China the world’s largest rice importer for a third consecutive year. Prior to 2012, China typically imported 0.3-0.6 million tons of rice a year, mostly aromatic rice from Thailand, and was typically a net exporter of rice. China’s imports increased to 2.9 million tons in 2012 from less than 600,000 in 2011. The recent strong growth in China’s imports is due to much lower prices in the global market, only slight production gains, increasing consumption, and decisions regarding stocks levels.

Second, the Philippines’ 2015 import forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million tons based on the recent pace of purchases. Third, Senegal’s 2015 import forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 1.2 million tons based on a stronger pace of purchases in 2014. Senegal’s imports are unchanged from the 2014 and 2012 record.

These upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions, both in the Middle East. First, Egypt’s 2014 imports were lowered 35,000 tons to 25,000 tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Cairo. Second, Syria’s 2015 import forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 150,000 tons based on weaker imports in 2014.

The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.6 million tons to 41.7 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2013 and the highest on record. Bangladesh, China, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Nigeria, Senegal, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the increase in 2014 global rice imports.

There were three export revisions for 2014 this month. First, Thailand’s 2014 export forecast was raised 800,000 tons to 10.3 million tons based on a strong pace of sales to date. Second, Egypt’s 2014 exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 600,000 tons based on a much smaller crop. Finally, Australia’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 70,000 tons to 430,000 tons, also based on smaller supplies.

There were five upward revisions to 2014 import forecasts this month, all largely based on a stronger than expected pace of purchases. China’s 2014 imports were raised 300,000 tons to a near-record 3.8 million tons; the Philippines 2014 imports were increased 200,000 tons to 1.65 million tons; Senegal’s 2014 imports were raised 100,000 tons to a record 1.2 million tons; Nepal’s 2014 imports were increased 100,000 tons to a near-record 350,000 tons; and the European Union’s 2014 import forecast was increased 40,000 tons to 1.4 million.

These upward revisions were partially offset by three reductions. First, South Korea’s 2014 imports were lowered 115,000 tons to 330,000 tons based on pace to date. Second, Syria’s 2014 imports were reduced 60,000 tons to 140,000 tons based on pace to date. And finally, Japan’s 2014 imports were decreased 50,000 tons to 650,000 tons based on pace to date. For both Japan and South Korea, all rice imports are purchased under World Trade Organization agreements.

Global Trading Prices-Decline; U.S. Long-grain Prices Unchanged

Prices for high- and medium-grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 1-2 percent over the past month, largely due to sales of Government-held stocks and the onset of a bumper main-season harvest. Prices for specialty rice have declined at a faster pace while prices for low-quality rice have risen slightly.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $440 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $8 from the week ending October 13. Prices for Thailand’s 5- percent brokens were quoted at $428 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $7 from the week ending October 13.

Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $423 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $12 from October 13. Prices for Thailand’s brokens are up slightly from mid-October. For the week ending November 10, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $335 per ton, up $5 from the week ending October 13. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $928 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $147 from the week ending October 13 due to the arrival of new-crop supplies on the market. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.

Price quotes from Vietnam have also decreased over the past month. For the week ending November 11, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $435 per ton, down $5 from the week ending October 14. Although Vietnam’s sales have been strong so far this year, especially to Southeast Asia and China, there have been few new large sales. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $7 per ton below quotes for Vietnam’s 5- percent double-water-polished milled rice, little changed from a month earlier and making Thailand a competitive seller. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton.

U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier. For the week ending November 11, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $529 per ton, unchanged since early October. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from the Middle East and Africa. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $104 per ton, up $8 from a month earlier but still well below the record $200 reported during the summer. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $20 from October 14 as supplies from the bumper 2014 crop are marketed.

Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $893 per ton for the week ending November 10, down $55 from October 14. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled-rice remain quoted at $1,040 per ton for the week ending November 10, unchanged since early October. Despite tighter global medium- and short-grain supplies, U.S. sales and shipments remain well behind a year earlier. Some Mediterranean medium-grain buyers have purchased Southern medium-grain rice due to much higher California prices. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

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