TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

Europe Mars Bulletins


15 December 2014

Europe Mars Bulletins December 2014Europe Mars Bulletins December 2014


Supplied by: MARS BULLETIN – EC - JRC

During the period of review, the western half of Europe was typically warmer-than-usual, while Belarus, Ukraine and Russia experienced below average daily temperatures and freezing weather conditions from late November onwards. The precipitation considerably exceeded the average in southern Europe and western Maghreb, but a broad region between Germany and the Ural Mountains remained dry. The decreasing temperatures of late autumn and early winter in eastern Europe initiated the hardening of winter cereals. During this process, the freezing point of plant cellular liquids decreases, thus increasing the tolerance of winter crops to low-temperatures, which is crucial to survive harsh winter conditions.

Our model simulation results indicate that the hardening of winter wheat progressed significantly in the eastern half of Europe. However the mild and warm autumn in western and central Europe allowed winter cereals to gain strength before the winter, but hampered the hardening process. Winter wheat is not hardened at all (all western and southern regions) or just slightly hardened (e.g. Germany, Czech Republic, western Poland). The current situation is delicate, however, considering the weakly hardened crops in Europe’s western and central regions. If a cold air intrusion accompanied by shallow snow cover occurs frost kill events are very likely. Yet currently no severe cold spell is forecast.

Agro-meteorological overview

During the period of review, the western half of Europe was typically warmer-than-usual, while Belarus, Ukraine and Russia experienced below average daily temperatures and freezing weather conditions from late November onwards. The precipitation considerably exceeded the average in southern Europe and western Maghreb, but a broad region between Germany and the Ural Mountains remained dry.During November and early December, Europe was split into two different climatological regions. The temperatures mostly exceeded the average in the Mediterranean region and central and western Europe, while the eastern part of Europe was colder-than-usual. The positive thermal anomaly in central and western Europe typically exceeded +2°C for the daily mean temperature, but reached +4-+6°C in the Central Mediterranean, Scandinavia and in the region of Carpathian Basin and the adjacent areas.

Rainfall was scarce or absent (300 mm) were experienced in southern France, Italy and along the western coastline of the Balkan and, Iberian Peninsula. In several places of the Mediterranean Basin, these abundant rainfall events were persistent, concentrated over the first two dekads of November and had a high intensity. The western shore of Ireland, Scotland, Turkey and Morocco also received high precipitation amounts. Cumulated rainfall was plentiful, but only slightly more than the average in the eastern side of the British Isles, central and western France, Spain (especially in the eastern half), southern Sweden, Finland, Romania, Bulgaria, and in Algeria.

Winter frost

kill The decreasing temperatures of late autumn and early winter in eastern Europe initiated the hardening of winter cereals. During this process, the freezing point of plant cellular liquids decreases, thus increasing the tolerance of winter crops to low-temperatures, which is crucial to survive harsh winter conditions. Our model simulation results indicate that the hardening of winter wheat progressed significantly in the eastern half of Europe during November. During the first dekad of December, winter wheat partially hardened in eastern Poland, eastern Romania, the Baltic States, Finland, Belarus, Ukraine and in the southern Okrug of Russia. In some spots in Ukraine and in the Central district of Russia only minor hardening has been reached.

Due to theunsatisfactory hardening coupled with extreme low temperatures (Tmin < -18°C) during the cold spell and the absence of a snow cover or a very shallow one frost damages are expected in those regions. The mild and warm late autumn in western and central Europe allowed winter cereals to gain strength before the winter, but hampered the hardening process. Winter wheat is not hardened at all (all western and southern regions) or just slightly hardened (e.g, Germany, Czech Republic, western Poland). The current situation is delicate, however, considering the weakly hardened crops in Europe’s western and central regions. If a cold air intrusion accompanied by shallow snow cover occurs frost kill events are very likely.

Weather forecast for the coming days 12 December - 21 December

Contrasting weather conditions are expected over Europe for the next 10 days. Unstable weather will prevail over many areas of western and northern Europe. The expected synoptic situation will bring a cold air mass over the British Isles, northern Europe, northern Germany and the Baltic countries at the beginning of the forecast period, followed by a warming tendency after 15 December. Nevertheless, no cold spell is foreseen for the major part of Europe, except European Russia. Frequent rainfalls will occur over northern Europe, northern Germany, the Baltic and the Benelux countries, whereas drier-than-usual conditions are forecast over the Balkans and eastern Europe as well as northern Mediterranean.The Azores anticyclone is extending from the Atlantic to the western Mediterranean and the Alpine region, bringing stable atmospheric conditions in the area.

Northern Europe is under the influence of a deep cyclonic system, currently located over the Norwegian Sea. The extended frontal system, connected to it, will bring cold air mass over north-western Europe, especially over the British Isles, at the beginning of the forecast period. At the same time, the warm branch of the cyclone system is bringing rainy weather over northern Germany, southern Scandinavia, Poland and southern Baltic. A cut off low pressure system is expected to dominate the weather over the Iberian Peninsula until 16 December, when it is forecast to move over the northern Mediterranean and fade out.

Northern Europe will be under the influence of Atlantic cyclones throughout the forecast period, with connected frontal systems hitting the British Isles,northern and central Europe. The expected synoptic situation will generally bring warmer than usual conditions over Europe, with the exception of the British Isles, western Scandinavia and the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula and some regions over northern Mediterranean, where normal or slightly lower than usual temperatures will be observed. The hardening process for winter cereals will therefore be hampered, especially over agricultural areas of western and central Europe. However, no severe cold spell is expected over Europe during the forecast period. Frequent rainfalls will occur over northern Europe, northern Germany, the Baltic and the Benelux countries. The weather is expected to remain drier than usual over the Balkans and eastern Europe as well as northern Mediterranean.

Source: MARS BULLETIN – EC - JRC

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors