TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

USDA Rice Outlook


15 December 2014

USDA Rice Outlook December 2014USDA Rice Outlook December 2014


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Export Forecast Raised to 103.0 Million Cwt

There were no supply side changes this month to the 2014/15 (August-July) U.S. rice balance sheet. Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 remain projected at 273.9 million cwt, 10 percent above a year earlier. A much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports. The 2014/15 total use forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to 234.0 million cwt due to a higher export forecast. At 103.0 million cwt, U.S. 2014/15 rice exports are up 11 percent from a year earlier. Total domestic and residual use remains forecast at 131.0 million cwt, the second highest on record. The larger export forecast resulted in a 1.0-million cwt reduction in the 2014/15 ending stocks to 39.9 million cwt, still 25 percent larger than a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range was lowered 50 cents on both ends to $18.50-$19.50 per cwt, compared with $18.50 a year earlier. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice was reduced 20 cents on both ends to $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, well below the $15.40 per cwt 2013/14 SAFP. Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.2 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 1.6 million tons below the 2013/14 record.

Production forecasts for 2014/15 were raised for China, Guyana, and Vietnam, but lowered for Indonesia. The global ending stocks forecast for 2014/15 was raised 0.6 million tons to 99.1 million tons, still the lowest since 2009/10. Calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.9 million tons, with China and Nigeria again the leading importing countries and Thailand and India the top exporting countries. Export forecasts for 2015 were raised for Burma and Thailand, while Indonesia’s 2015 import forecast was increased. Prices for high and medium grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 3-5 percent over the past month. Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased at a faster pace over the past month. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined from a month earlier as well, while medium-grain milled-rice prices are unchanged.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Total Rice Supplies Projected at 273.9 Million Cwt

There were no supply side changes this month to the 2014/15 (August-July) U.S. rice balance sheet. Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 remain projected at 273.9 million cwt, 10 percent above a year earlier and the largest since the 2010/11 record. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports. Long-grain supplies remain projected at 195.0 million cwt, 13 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total 2014/15 supplies remain projected at 76.6 million cwt, 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in total supply, are not included in supplies by class. The 2014/15 crop remains estimated at 221.1 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), 16 percent larger than a year earlier. Long-grain production remains estimated at 160.3 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Nearly all longgrain rice is grown in the South. Medium- and short-grain production remains estimated at 60.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier, with the South accounting for all of the increase. Total U.S. rice plantings remain estimated at 2.93 million acres, 18 percent higher than a year earlier.

Plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California, where rice area dropped 24 percent due to severe drought, low reservoir levels, and water restrictions. The average yield remains estimated at 7,597 pounds per acre, down 1 percent from a year earlier but still the second highest on record. Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas, with the Texas yield the highest on record. Production is higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California, with Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the 31.2-million cwt increase in U.S. rice production for the period. The all-rice beginning stocks estimate for 2014/15 remains at 31.8 million cwt, 13 percent below a year earlier. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 16.2 million cwt, 26 percent smaller than a year earlier.

The medium- and shortgrain carryin remains estimated 13.3 million cwt, 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the expected increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is likely to be larger and lower priced in 2014/15. Long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from the year-earlier record. Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for much of the remaining U.S. long-grain rice imports. Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Italy supplies a small amount of Arborio rice to the United States each year.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Export Forecast Raised 1.0 Million Cwt to 103.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 234.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month and 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 168.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use remains projected at 66.0 million cwt, 9 percent higher than a year earlier. Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 remains projected at 131.0 million cwt, 5 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. The higher domestic and residual use forecast for 2014/15 is mainly based on the larger crop. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 99.0 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains forecast at 32.0 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 103.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s upward revision in exports is based on U.S. Census trade data through October, sales and shipment data reported in the weekly U.S. Export Sales report through November 27, and expectations regarding sales the remainder of the market year.

The year-toyear increase in U.S. exports projected for 2014/15 is largely based on expectations that more competitive U.S. prices will increase sales to major markets in Latin America and the Middle East. Through November 27, combined commercial exports and outstanding sales of all rice totaled 1.53 million tons (product-weight), 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Outstanding commercial sales were 6 percent higher than a year earlier, and commercial exports were 4 percent higher than a year earlier. There were substantial differences in sales and shipments by class and type. At 667,800 tons, long-grain rough-rice outstanding commercial sales and shipments were 35 percent ahead of a year earlier for the week ending November 27, 2014. Medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports and outstanding sales of 137,300 tons were nearly 30 percent ahead of a year earlier. Long-grain milled-rice exports and outstanding sales totaled 456,100 tons for the week ending November 27, up 4 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, medium- and short-grain milled-rice exports and outstanding sales of 252,200 tons were 29 percent behind a year earlier for the week ending November 27. By market, for the week ending November 27, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rice were substantially ahead of a year earlier to Iraq, Turkey, and Venezuela, but behind for Japan and South Korea U.S. 2014/15 long-grain exports are projected at 69.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month’s forecast and 12 percent above a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was largely based on stronger U.S. sales to South America and the Middle East.

The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. longgrain rice, typically accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments, with rough-rice accounting for the bulk of U.S. shipments to the Western Hemisphere.The major Asian rice exporters do not ship rough rice out of the region and ship milled rice mostly within Asia and to Africa and the Middle East. The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice, taking almost exclusively milled-rice from the United States. The U.S. typically faces its strongest competition with Asian exporters in these markets. Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, 10 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Northeast Asia—China, South Korea, and Taiwan— typically taking almost two-thirds of total U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. These annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September and are all the result of agreements under the World Trade Organization.

By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Through November 27, U.S. commercial sales and shipments of rough-rice were ahead of a year earlier to Central America, Turkey, and Venezuela. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico the largest buyer. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for almost all U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, typically taking California rice. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 68.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 6 percent larger than a year earlier. The upward revision was largely based on stronger sales to the Middle East. In contrast, U.S. milled-rice sales and exports to Sub-Saharan Africa and Northeast Asia remain behind a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. The expected increase in 2014/15 in U.S. milled-rice exports is based on lower U.S. prices, a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors, and larger U.S. supplies.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 39.9 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 25 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 17.1 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 27.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 66 percent larger than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.0 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14. The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 10.6 million cwt, 20 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio remains estimated at 16.1 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.

U.S. 2014/15 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Lowered for Both Classes of Rice

The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range is projected at $18.50-$19.50 per cwt, down 50 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. This compares with a 2013/14 SAFP of $18.50 per cwt. In California, where 70 percent or more of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop is typically grown, production is down 24 percent from a year earlier due to reduced plantings. Global supplies of medium- and short-grain rice are also tighter this year. However, a larger than normal share of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop will come from the South in 2014/15, which will limit any price increase. The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends and well below the $15.40 per cwt 2013/14 SAFP. This is the lowest long-grain SAFP since 2010/11.

The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies. This month’s downward revisions in the 2014/15 SAFPs for both classes of rice are based on reported NASS prices through October and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year. The 2014/15 all-rice U.S. SAFP was lowered 20 cents on both ends to $14.00- $15.00 per cwt due to lower SAFP forecasts for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain. This is well below the $16.10 reported for 2013/14. In late November, NASS reported an October U.S. long-grain rough-rice cash price of $12.90 per cwt, down $1.10 from the mid-month estimate and 80 cents below September. This is the lowest U.S. long-grain price since August 2011. Virtually all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. For U.S. combined medium- and short-grain rice, the October NASS price was reported at $18.50 per cwt, up 40 cents from the mid-month estimate but $1.90 below the September price and the lowest since April. By region, the California October medium- and short-grain price was estimated at $21.30 per cwt, up 30 cents from the mid-month estimate but down $1.20 from a month earlier. The October 2014 southern medium- and short-grain price is estimated at $15.30 per cwt, down 40 cents from September. NASS began reporting U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly prices by region in October 2014, starting with the August 2014 prices.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2014/15 Raised for China, Guyana, and Vietnam

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 475.2 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million tons from last month’s forecast but still 1.6 million tons below the 2013/14 record global crop, and the first decline in global production since 2009/10. South Asia accounts for most of the decline in global production projected for 2014/15. At 160.6 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is fractionally below the year-earlier record. The average global yield in 2014/15 is forecast at 4.41 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), fractionally below 2013/14 and below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons. There were five country-specific upward revisions in 2014/15 production forecasts this month. First, China’s 2014/15 production forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 144.5 million tons due to a record yield. The area estimate was lowered slightly. Both production and average yield are the highest on record. Some of the yield growth is due to the shifting of rice area to higher yielding regions in the northeast.

The revised area, yield, and production forecasts are from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In nearby South Korea, the 2014/15 production estimate was raised 60,000 tons to 4.24 million tons based on a higher yield reported by the Government. Weather was quite favorable leading up to harvest. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 50,000 tons to 28.25 million tons—just fractionally above a year earlier and the highest on record. This month’s upward revision was based on higher than expected yields for the spring and autumn crops, the two largest of the three crops grown annually. While production and average yield are the highest on record, Vietnam’s rice area remains 0.1 million hectares below the 2012/13 record. In South Asia, Afghanistan’s 2014/15 production estimate was raised 29,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on a much higher yield. Growing conditions were favorable, and sufficient irrigation water was available. Outside Asia, Guyana’s 2014/15 rice production estimate was raised 50,000 tons to 620,000 tons based on a higher yield and slightly more area. Area, yield, and production are record-high in Guyana.

Since 2010/11, Guyana has expanded rice area and improved yields, resulting in solid production growth and expanded exports. The bulk of Guyana’s crop is exported. These upward revisions were partially offset by a 0.5-million ton reduction in Indonesia’s 2014/15 production forecast to 36.5 million tons, still slightly above a year earlier but well below the 2008/09 record of 38.3 million tons. This month’s downward revision in Indonesia’s production forecast is based on a more normal yield of 4.72 tons per hectare, nearly unchanged since 2011/12. Neither Indonesia’s area nor yield has shown any long-term increase since 2008/09. Virtually no additional land can be brought into rice production on Java—the main producing island—and land on other islands typically yields much lower rice per hectare than Java. There were only two production revisions for 2013/14, both in Southeast Asia. First, Indonesia’s 2013/14 production estimate was raised 0.3 million tons to 36.3 million tons based on slightly larger area during the second and third crop seasons, a result of adequate rainfall during the dry season and insignificant pest and disease incidents. Second, Vietnam’s 2013/15 rice production estimate was raised 0.16 million tons to 28.2 million tons based on slightly higher yields for the spring and autumn crops. Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 482.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but 2.7 million tons larger than a year earlier.

Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 7.7 million tons. On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for the bulk of the projected increase in global consumption and residual use in 2014/15. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.1 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but 7 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2009/10. China and Vietnam account for the bulk of this month’s upward revision in global ending stocks, a result of larger crop projections. India accounts for most of the 2014/15 decline in ending stocks. At 16.8 million tons, India’s 2014/15 ending stocks are 5.7 million tons below a year earlier and the lowest since 2007/08. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 20.5 percent, down from 22.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2007/08.

Thailand Is Projected To Export a Record 11.0 Million Tons of Rice in 2015

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at a record 41.9 million tons, up 0.35 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Global trade has been quite strong since 2012, largely due to large purchases by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in much of Asia. There were three export revisions for 2015 this month. First, Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was raised 200,000 tons to a record 11.0 million tons based on expectations of higher demand from Indonesia. Thailand’s 2015 exports are 7 percent larger than a year earlier, with Thailand the largest rice exporter in 2014 and 2015. Thailand was the largest rice exporter from the early 1980s until 2012, when India overtook it, largely due to Thailand’s paddy purchase program that made Thailand uncompetitive in most global markets. This policy ended in May 2014. Both Thailand and India export long-grain rice, including premium aromatic varieties. Thailand is also the largest exporter of glutinous rice, a specialty rice popular in parts of Asia. Second, Burma’s 2015 export forecast was raised 0.1 million tons to 1.4 million tons based on expectations of stronger shipments to China and Indonesia.

Third, China’s 2015 rice export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 0.4 million based on larger supplies. On the 2015 import side, Indonesia’s import forecast was raised 0.3 million tons to 1.3 million tons based on a smaller crop. Indonesia’s production has not kept pace with its growing domestic demand for rice, largely driven by population growth. Indonesia is the world’s third largest rice producing and consuming country and has the fourth largest population. The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.15 million tons to 41.9 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2013. Bangladesh, China, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Nigeria, Senegal, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the increase in 2014 global rice imports. Burma, Guyana, and Thailand exported more rice in 2014 than in 2013, with Thailand accounting for most of the increase. In contrast, India, Pakistan, and the United States exported less rice in 2014 than a year earlier. The only 2014 export revision was a 0.15-million ton increase in Burma’s exports to 1.45 million tons, 22 percent larger than a year earlier and highest since 1963.

Burma was the largest rice exporting country prior to 1964, but policies after the 1962 military coup limited the country’s exports. Since 2011, Burma’s rice exports have exceeded a million tons per year, a level not consistently achieved since the earlier 1960s. On the import side, China’s 2014 imports were raised 0.1 million tons to a nearrecord 3.9 million tons based on stronger than expected shipments from Thailand and Vietnam. Prior to 2012, China typically imported 0.3-0.6 million tons of rice a year, mostly jasmine from Thailand. Since 2012, China has been the largest or near-largest rice importer in the world, with purchases increasing each year. Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, and Pakistan supply the bulk of China’s rice imports, which are primarily long-grain, regular-milled rice. Global prices are much lower than internal prices in China. Indonesia’s 2014 import forecast was lowered almost 0.2 million tons to 1.23 million tons based on a larger 2013/14 crop. Imports by the European Union were raised 0.1 million tons to 1.5 million tons due to stronger purchases from Burma and Cambodia. Sri Lanka’s 2014 imports were increased 70,000 tons to 170,000 tons due to larger shipments from India, its primary supplier. These are the largest imports for Sri Lanka since 2004 and are mainly due to a smaller 2014/15 rice crop. Import forecasts for 2014 were also raised this month for North Korea, Sierra Leone, and Somalia.

U.S. and Global Trading Prices for Long-Grain Milled-Rice Decline

Prices for high- and medium-grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 3-5 percent over the past month, largely due to sales of Government-held stocks, anticipation of upcoming sales, and the harvest of a bumper main season. Prices for specialty rice and for low-quality rice have declined as well. Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $424 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $16 from the week ending November 10. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $407 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $21 from the week ending November 10. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice, a specialty rice, were quoted at $410 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $13 from November 10.

Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down from last month as well. For the week ending December 8, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $326 per ton, down $9 from the week ending November 10. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $910 per ton for the week ending December 8, down $18 from the week ending November 10. Prices for fragrant rice had increased to $893 per ton in early December from $863 per ton a week earlier due to the announcement of a new pledging scheme for fragrant and glutinous rice. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. Price quotes from Vietnam have decreased at a faster pace over the past month. For the week ending December 10, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milledrice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $390 per ton, down $45 from the week ending November 11. These are the lowest prices since April. Sales to major markets such as West Africa and China have slowed.

Thailand’s price quotes for 5- percent brokens are currently $17 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, up from a $7 discount a month earlier. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined from a month earlier as well. For the week ending December 10, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulfport) were quoted at $513 per ton, down $16 from the week ending November 10. Outside core U.S. markets such as Haiti and the late-November sale of 120,000 tons to Iraq, new demand for U.S. long-grain milled rice has been weak, especially from SubSaharan Africa. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $104 per ton, unchanged from a month earlier, but still well below the record $200 reported during the summer.

Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) are quoted at $305 per ton for the week ending December 10, unchanged from a month earlier. Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain milled-rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $893 per ton for the week ending December, unchanged from a month earlier. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled-rice remain quoted at $1,040 per ton for the week ending December 10, unchanged since early October. U.S. sales and shipments of milled medium-grain rice remain well behind a year earlier, especially to Japan and South Korea. Some Mediterranean medium-grain buyers have purchased Southern medium-grain rice due to much higher California prices. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors

Partners