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USDA Wheat Outlook


15 January 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook - January 2015USDA Wheat Outlook - January 2015


USDA Wheat Outlook

Feed and residual use for 2014/15 is lowered 30 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 stocks released in the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is lowered on the winter wheat planted area reported today in the Winter Wheat Seedings report. U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are up slightly on increased beginning stocks. Projected ending stocks are raised 33 million bushels. The 2014/15 season-average farm price is projected 10 cents higher on both ends to $5.90 to $6.30.

World wheat production in 2014/15 is projected up, adding another 1.2 million tons to world output this month, with 1.1 million tons of additional wheat coming from Ethiopia. Projected global stocks are up 1.1 million tons, for the most part coming from the increase in U.S. stocks. Wheat export projections and a shift among exporters this month are primarily driven by an expected reduction in Russian wheat exports, down 2.0 million tons to 20.0 million, following the imposition of a wheat export tax. Exports are projected up for the European Union, Ukraine, Canada, and Kazakhstan, as well as for Iran. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged.

Domestic Outlook

2014 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Is Unchanged From December

The survey-based estimate of winter wheat production for 2014, at 1,378 million bushels, is unchanged from December, but down 165 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 32.3 million acres, down 0.3 million acres from 2013. The 2014 winter wheat yield is estimated at 42.6 bushels per acre, down 4.6 bushels from the previous year.

2014 Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class Are Unchanged From December

Hard red winter (HRW) production is estimated at 738 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 9 million bushels from a year ago. Production for 2014 is down from 2013 as a lower yield more than offset higher harvest area. Estimated yield is 33.7 bushels per acre, down from last year because of drought conditions and an April spring freeze. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 30.5 million acres, up 0.8 million acres; 21.9 million acres, up 1.5 million acres; and 33.7 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels per acre, respectively.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is estimated at 455 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 113 million bushels from last year. Production in 2014 is estimated lower than 2013 because of lower harvested area. Harvested area was lower mostly because of fewer planted acres. The weather was very favorable for timely harvesting of 2012 row crops, leaving ample time for seeding the 2013 SRW crop. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 8.5 million acres, down 1.5 million acres; 7.2 million acres, down 1.8 million acres; and 63.6 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels per acre, respectively.

White winter wheat production for 2014 is estimated to total 184 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 43 million bushels from a year ago. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):

 

Desert durum wheat production in California and Arizona is estimated at 11.7 million bushels for 2014. This production is less than the 12.4-million bushels in 2013.

2014 U.S. Spring Wheat Production Is Unchanged From December

The survey-based estimate of spring wheat production, at 648 million bushels, is unchanged from December, but down 56 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 14.1 million acres, down 1.4 million acres from 2013. The 2014 spring wheat yield is estimated at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the previous year.

Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class Are Unchanged From December

Hard red spring (HRS) production is estimated at 556 million bushels, are unchanged from December, but up 65 million bushels from 2013. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 12.2 million acres (up 1.3 million), 12.0 million acres, (up 1.3 million), and 46.3 bushels per acre (up 0.5 bushels).

White spring production is estimated to total 39.5 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 4.0 million bushels from 2013.The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat are as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS):

Durum wheat production is estimated to total 53.1 million bushels, unchanged from December, but down 4.9 million bushels from a year ago. Durum production is estimated down from 2013 with both smaller harvested area and lower yields. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 1.40 million acres (unchanged), 1.34 million acres, (unchanged), and 39.7 bushels per acre (down 3.6 bushels).

Projected 2014/15 Supplies Up Very Slightly This Month

The 2014/15 outlook for U.S. wheat supplies is raised 1.0 million bushels from December to 2,796 million bushels because of higher beginning stocks. Projected total imports, at 180 million bushels, are unchanged from December.

Projected 2014/15 Supplies Down From 2013/14

Total supplies are down a projected 225 million bushels from 2013/14. HRS and durum supplies are projected up year to year. Projected supplies of the other classes are down. HRW supplies are down mostly because of lower carryin stocks; the combined result of sharply lower production in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 and strong 2013/14 exports. SRW and white supplies are down mostly due to lower production; yields are down from the previous year.

Projected Total 2014/15 Utilization Is Down This Month

The 2014/15 outlook for projected U.S. wheat use, at 2,109 million bushels, is down 32 million bushels from December. Projected feed and residual use is down 30 to 150 million bushels based on the December 1 stocks reported in Grain Stocks report. HRW feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels and SRW use is down 5 million bushels. Projected seed use is down based on the Winter Wheat Seedings report. HRW seedings are 29.5 million acres compared with 30.5 for 2014. SRW seedings are 7.5 million acres compared with 8.5 for 2014. HWW and SWW seedings for 2015 are .368 million acres and 3.114 million acres, respectively. HWW and SWW seedings for 2014 were .383 million acres and 3.047 million acres, respectively. Projected food use at 960 million bushels is unchanged. Projected 2014/15 exports, at 925 million bushels, are also unchanged from December.

Projected 2014/15 Utilization Down From 2013/14

Total use is projected down by 322 million bushels from 2013/14. Total use of HRS and durum are up, while total use of the other three classes is down year to year. Projected domestic use, at 1,184 million bushels, is down 71 million bushels from 2013/14 as lower expected feed and residual use more than offset higher food use. Projected 2014/15 exports are down 251 million bushels from 2013/14, especially due to lower expected SRW and HRW exports. SRW and HRW are exports expected down 128 million bushels and 141 million bushels, respectively.

Projected 2014/15 Total Ending Stocks Are Raised From December

The projected 2014/15 outlook for total U.S. wheat ending stocks is raised 33 million bushels from December to 687 million bushels. Total 2014/15 ending stocks are expected up 16 percent from 2013/14. Ending stocks of SRW and HRS are expected up year to year by 51 percent and 24 percent, respectively. HRW ending stocks are up 7 percent. Durum stocks are up 1 percent year to year. White ending stocks are expected down 35 percent.

The 2014/15 Price Range Is Changed From December

The projected season-average farm price range for 2014/15 is $5.90 to $6.30 per bushel compared with the December range of $5.80 to $6.20 per bushel. The midpoint is raised with the recent price rally. The season-average farm price for 2013/14 is estimated at $6.87 per bushel.

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2014-23

Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat. A detailed discussion summarizing the historical forces determining U.S. wheat supply and utilization, along with the analysis underlying the wheat projections for 2014-23, is available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/usda-wheat-baseline,-2014-23.aspx.

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