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USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook


21 January 2015

USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - January 2015USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook - January 2015


USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

No changes were made to the 2013/14 U.S. supply and use balance. For 2014/15, total supplies were lowered slightly from the previous month to 13.910 short tons, raw value (STRV). No changes were made to beginning stocks or domestic production. Total imports were lowered 9,412 STRV from the previous month. This decline is based on an expected increase in imports from tariff-rate quota countries (up 13,007 STRV) and lower imports expected from Mexico (down 22,419 STRV) due to signed agreements between the Department of Commerce and the Government of Mexico that suspend the anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations against sugar from Mexico. Projections for domestic deliveries and exports remain unchanged from the previous month. Ending stocks are down 9,412 STRV, reflecting the relatively lower supplies due to fewer imports. The stocks-to-use ratio is 13.6 percent, down slightly from last month’s projected 13.7 percent.

No changes were made to Mexico’s 2013/14 supply and use balance. For 2014/15, projected Mexican production was increased 11,372 metric tons, actual value (MT), based on the first estimate for the Mexican 2014/15 crop year from Mexico’s Comité Nacional Para Desarrollo de la Caña de Azúcar (Conadesuca). Imports remain unchanged from the previous month. Total supplies were increased to 7.174 MT, with monthly changes all reflective of production increases. Exports were lowered 19,187 MT due to the terms of the agreement to suspend the U.S. AD/CVD agreements. Domestic deliveries remain unchanged. Ending stocks were increased 30,559 MT to 954,559 MT, which represents a 22.7 percent stocks-to-domestic-consumption ratio.

The Department of Commerce and the Government of Mexico signed agreements on December 19, 2014, that suspend the U.S. AD and CVD investigations against sugar from Mexico. The terms of the suspension agreements include a price floor for both refined sugar and other sugar and quantity limits on exports, based on a calculation of U.S. needs using data from specific government reports. A “request for review of the suspension agreement” filed by members of the industry with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) could result in the agreement being nullified or renegotiated. The agreement became effective when signed in December and will remain in place while the ITC conducts its review.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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