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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


22 January 2015

USDA GAIN: Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update January 2015USDA GAIN: Malaysia Oilseeds and Products Update January 2015

Severe floods on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia last month caused production to drop 22.5 percent compared to November. Output has now entered the seasonal down cycle, which will be exacerbated by the flood’s effect. As result, the 2014/15 production forecast is reduced from 21.25 to 19.7 million tons in the attached updated PS&D tables.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Production

Last month’s flooding in three States along the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia caused December output to fall 22.5 percent to 1.35 million tons, the lowest since 2010. This was 18.6 percent lower than December 2013. Peninsular Malaysia’s total output dropped 30 percent, while that for East Malaysia’s declined14 percent.

With the lower first quarter production, and the floods’ expected lagged effect on output, the production forecast for 2014/15 is lowered to 19.7 million tons, based on matured acreage of 4.6 million hectares. The lower seasonal production cycle will only be exacerbated by the disruptions in collection, transport, and processing causing by the lingering effects of the flooding. Reportly, in some areas in may take up to 2 to 3 months for to repair damaged infrastructure.

Price

December’s monthly average delivered price was $614, down from $693 in November, and well off the the prevailing price of $842 in December 2013. In line with drop in CPO price, the Refined/Bleached/Deodorized (RBD) Palm Oil FOB average price dropped to $627/ton in December from $685/ton in November.

Stocks

Stocks dropped from 2.28 million tons in November to 2.01 million tons at the end of December, partly due to lower production recorded in December. With expectations for lower monthly production over the next few months, stocks should decline further.

Exports

Exports in December 2014 were slightly higher than in November. Shipments to China dropped from 340,000 to 250,000 tons, but this decline was outstripped by gains in shipments to other key markets, including India, Pakistan, EU and the U.S. December 2014 exports were about the same as December 2013, when the export duty was 4.5 percent. The export duty will remain at zero for January 2015.

Imports

The import estimate has been increased based on the pace of trade to date.

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