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USDA Rice Outlook


15 June 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - June 2015USDA Rice Outlook - June 2015


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2015/16 Rice Import Forecast Raised to a Record 25.0 Million Cwt

There were two supply side revisions this month to the 2015/16 U.S. rice balance sheet. First, carryin was raised 6 percent from the previous forecast to 45.4 million cwt, up 43 percent from a year earlier. Second, the 2015/16 all rice import forecast was raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 25.0 million cwt. The only revision on the 2015/16 use side was a 2.0-million cwt increase in the export forecast to 110.0 million cwt. These revisions resulted in a 1.0-million cwt increase in the ending socks forecast to 48.4 million cwt.

There were no revisions to the 2015/16 season average farm price (SAFP) forecasts this month. The 2015/16 SAFP for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $10.00-$11.00 per cwt, down from a revised $11.90-$12.10 in 2014/15. The 2015/16 U.S. medium- and shortgrain SAFP remains projected at $17.80-$18.80, compared with $17.80-$18.20 in 2014/15. By region, the California 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $20.00-$21.00 per cwt, compared with a revised $20.20-$20.60 in 2014/15. In the South, the 2015/16 medium- and short-grain SAFP remains projected at $14.50-$15.50 per cwt, compared with a revised $14.80-$15.00 for 2014/15.

Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at a record 481.7 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but 5.6 million tons larger than a year earlier. Brazil’s 2015/16 production forecast was lowered while Guyana’s was raised. Global rice consumption (including a residual component) in 2015/16 is projected at a record 489.0 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast. With consumption exceeding production by 7.2 million tons, global ending stocks in 2015/16 are projected to decline 7 percent to 91.4 million tons, the smallest since 2007/08.

Global rice trade in calendar year 2016 is projected at 42.4 million tons (milled basis), up just 50,000 tons from last month’s forecast and the third highest on record. Guyana’s 2016 export forecast was raised his month. Global trade in 2015 remains projected at a record 43.2 million tons, up less than 0.1 million tons from a year earlier.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have declined 2-3 percent from a month earlier, largely in anticipation of the sales of government stocks through a public tender for around 1.1 million metric tons on June 15. U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice have declined since early May. Price quotes from Vietnam have not changed over the past month.

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