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USDA Wheat Outlook


15 July 2015

USDA Wheat Outlook - 15 July 2015USDA Wheat Outlook - 15 July 2015


USDA Wheat Outlook

U.S. 2015/16 Wheat Supplies Up This Month

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 58 million bushels this month on larger beginning stocks and production. A 10-million-bushel decrease in imports is partially offsetting. Production is raised on increased spring wheat production that more than offsets decreases for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat. Overall yields for spring wheat are forecast above average. Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2015/16 is raised 5 million bushels to 200 million on the larger crop. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 25 million bushels to 950 million on increased U.S. supplies and reduced wheat production in Canada. These exports would be up 11 percent from the low level of 2014/15, but still well below the 5-year average. Ending stocks are raised 28 million bushels to 842 million, the largest since the 2010/11. Despite higher stocks, the season-average price is raised 35 cents to $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel on recently higher cash and futures prices and the rising outlook for corn prices, particularly in the summer months when a majority of this year’s wheat crop will be marketed.

U.S. 2015/16 wheat export prospects are increased this month due to higher domestic production and reduced competition, especially from Canada for high protein wheat. Reductions in projected wheat output in the European Union and Canada are offset by higher production prospects in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the United States. Export projections are revised in line with production changes. Global wheat supplies and stocks are boosted by a downward revision to Chinese feed consumption.

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