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USDA Oil Crops Outlook


17 August 2015

USDA Oil Crops Outlook - 17 August 2015USDA Oil Crops Outlook - 17 August 2015


USDA Oil Crops Outlook

Soybean Stocks To Rise With Higher Crop and Dimmer Export Outlook

USDA’s Crop Production report this month forecast 2015/16 soybean production up 31 million bushels to 3.916 billion bushels as a higher yield offset a lower harvested acreage. This year’s soybean yield is forecast at 46.9 bushels per acre, which is above last month’s projected trend of 46 bushels. Despite an increased supply, USDA lowered its forecast of 2015/16 soybean exports by 50 million bushels this month to 1.725 billion based on low export sales commitments to date. The anticipated increase in U.S. soybean supplies for 2015/16 and lower export demand boosts the forecast of season-ending stocks by 45 million bushels this month to 470 million.

Encouraged by abundant stocks and a depreciating exchange rate, Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean exports are expected to expand to a record 54.5 million metric tons—up 3.75 million from last month’s forecast. Also, new-crop 2015/16 Argentine soybean exports are forecast 1.05 million tons higher this month to 9.75 million. For China, smaller domestic oilseed harvests and a tightening availability of foreign rapeseed supplies are seen increasing its 2015/16 soybean imports to 79 million tons—1.5 million above last month’s forecast.

Published by USDA Economic Research Service

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