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Canadian Crop Statistics


06 June 2012

Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds Review - Review of March 2012 Canadian Cereal and Oilseeds Review - Review of March 2012

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) publication Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook, global oilseed production for 2011/2012 is projected at 447.7 million metric tonnes.
Canadian Crop Statistics

2012 Canadian seeding intentions indicate increased acreage for all major field crops

Early intentions for planting in 2012 show increases in spring wheat and durum wheat compared with 2011, and a possible record acreage of canola and soybeans. In the East, farmers anticipate seeding a record area of corn for grain.

Statistics Canada surveyed 13,400 farmers for the area they intended to seed this spring. Data collection for the March Seeding Intentions Survey was carried out from March 23 to March 30, 2012.

Farmers may modify their plans prior to planting time as a result of economic and environmental conditions. Some farmers indicated that they were still undecided about their final strategies for 2012. Survey results indicate that Canadian farmers may seed a record 20.4 million acres of canola in 2012, up 8.0% or 1.5 million acres from the previous record of 18.9 million acres set in 2011. This would be the sixth consecutive annual record in canola area at the national level. Acreage in Manitoba is expected to return to pre-flood levels.

At the national level, spring wheat area could rise 9.0% or 1.4 million acres to 17.2 million acres in 2012. Intentions in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are up 14.7% and 24.9% respectively, from 2011 but down 2.3% in Alberta. Durum wheat acreage is expected to increase for a second consecutive year, to 5.1 million acres in 2012 from 4.0 million acres in 2011. Planting intentions in Saskatchewan are expected to rise 28.1% to 4.5 million acres.

In Ontario and Quebec, farmers expect to seed 3.3 million acres of corn for grain, up by 478,300 acres or 17.2% from 2011. In Ontario, intentions of 2.24 million acres would break the previous record of 2.17 million acres set in 1981.

Nationally, farmers are expecting to seed a soybean area of nearly 4.0 million acres in 2012, up from 3.8 million acres the previous year. This would be a record high. In Ontario, intentions of 2.5 million acres seeded would surpass the record set in 2010. Manitoba farmers anticipate seeding 800,000 acres in 2012, which would represent a fourth consecutive annual record high. If this increase and the intended decline of 16.0% in Quebec are realized, Manitoba would have the second largest soybean area in Canada, after Ontario.

Global supply and demand

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updated world agriculture supply and demand estimates on April 10, 2012. Global wheat supplies for 2011/2012 are lowered 0.5 million metric tonnes as reductions in beginning stocks for a number of countries off-set a 0.3 million metric tonnes increase in global production. Production changes this month have only a limited impact on global trade as world imports rise mostly on higher expected wheat feeding.

Global wheat imports for 2011/2012 are projected 1.6 million metric tonnes higher. Global wheat consumption is raised due to higher feed and residual usage. Ending stocks are projected 3.4 million metric tonnes lower. Coarse grain supplies are projected 4.4 million metric tonnes lower mostly due to a 4.1 million metric tonne reduction in corn beginning stocks in China. Global barley supplies are also lowered 0.6 million metric tonnes. These reductions were slightly off-set by an increase in global sorghum supplies.

Global coarse grain consumption for 2011/2012 is lowered 3.5 million metric tonnes, largely due to a 3.1 million metric tonne reduction in corn feed and residual use in China. Ending stocks 2011/2012 are lowered 0.9 million metric tonnes. Global oilseed production for 2011/2012 is projected at 447.7 million metric tonnes, down 5.3 million from last month, primarily due to weather conditions causing decreased production in South America.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 108.4 million metric tonnes, down 2 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 56.4 million metric tonnes, down 1.8 million from last month and down 13.8 million metric tonnes from last year.

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