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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


20 July 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 19 July 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 19 July 2012

Rainfall in Queensland has continued to cause delays for the sugarcane harvest. Further west in the state the rain will provide moisture for the growth of pastures and winter grain crops, according to the latest ABARES Climate, Water and Agricultural Update.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Drier and warmer conditions are more likely across most of Australia between August and October 2012 (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Outlook, 18 July 2012).

Most climate models indicate that the Tropical Pacific Ocean may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds by late winter or early spring (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrapup’, 17 July 2012).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 409 gigalitres to approximately 95 per cent of total capacity.

Water allocations increased this week in the Murray Valley in New South Wales (NSW) and the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Bullarook and Broken valleys in Victoria. Allocations in the NSW Murray Valley increased to 100 per cent of entitlement for high security and general security water users.

With dry conditions persisting in key growing regions of the United States, the world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$354 a tonne in the week ending 17 July 2012, the highest level so far in 2012.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$339 a tonne for the week ending 18 July 2012, compared with a recent low of US$246 a tonne in late May.

According to the Brazilian Sugar Mill Association, heavy rains during Brazil’s peak sugarcane crush season have caused significant delays to sugar and ethanol production.

Commodities

Production and commodities

With dry conditions persisting in key growing regions of the United States, the world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$354 a tonne in the week ending 17 July 2012, compared with US$341 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$339 a tonne for the week ending 18 July 2012, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian indicator prices for feed grains continue to trend up with feed wheat (GP Sydney), barley (feed – Sydney) and grain sorghum (Sydney) all rising by around 4 per cent in the week ending 17 July 2012, compared with the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) has remained largely unchanged in the week ending 16 July at $554 a tonne, compared with the previous week, after increasing by 11 per cent between late June and the week ending 9 July 2012.

Climate

For the week ending 18 July 2012, moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded across large parts of eastern Australia, with minimal rainfall received elsewhere. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 165 millimetres at Mount Read in Tasmania.

Rainfall in Queensland has continued to cause delays for the 2012 sugarcane harvest. Further west in the state, the rain will promote pasture growth coming into spring and provide moisture for the growth of winter grain crops.

Hot and humid conditions have reportedly resulted in prolific flowering of Mango trees in the Northern Territory. As a result, it is likely there will be high fruit production, similar to last year.

Cool conditions and severe frosts have reportedly slowed the growth of some crops in southern New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria.

Drier conditions are more likely across large parts of south east, central, north east and western Australia between August and October 2012 (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, 18 July 2012).

Warmer than normal night-time and daytime temperatures are more likely across most of Australia between August and October 2012 (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Temperature Outlook, 18 July 2012).

Most climate models indicate that the Tropical Pacific Ocean may approach or exceed El Niño thresholds by late winter or early spring (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’ 17 July 2012).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 18 July 2012, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded across large parts of eastern Australia, with moderate rainfall occurring along the southern coastal regions. For further information, click here.

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