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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


02 August 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 2 August 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 2 August 2012

Colder than average temperatures throughout July 2012 have reportedly decreased vegetable production in Queensland. In the coming week up to 20mm of rain is forecast for cropping areas of Western Australia and south east Australia. The rain should provide timely moisture for the growth of winter crops and pastures.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Continued warming in the Tropical Pacific Ocean shows a pattern typical of the development stage of an El Niño event, with climate models suggesting a return to weak El Niño conditions by the end of winter or spring 2012.

High reliability water allocations increased this week in the Victorian Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Broken valley systems. Low reliability water allocations in the Campaspe valley increased to 18 per cent of entitlement.

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) fell to an average of US$366 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012 from US$371 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$341 a tonne for the week ending 1 August 2012, compared with US$349 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) also declined in the week ending 31 July 2012 to an average of US$634 a tonne, compared with US$638 a tonne in the previous week.

After trending up over recent weeks, the Australian indicator price of feed wheat (Sydney GP) fell by 6 per cent to an average of $290 a tonne in the week ending 31 July.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400kg live weight C3) increased by 10 per cent to 400 cents a kilogram in the week ending 27 July 2012.

Beef and veal exports were 82 500 tonnes in July 2012, 3000 tonnes higher than the same month in 2011. Shipments to Japan and the United States were 8000 tonnes and 1000 tonnes higher year-on-year, more than offsetting a fall of 2000 tonnes in shipments to the Republic of Korea.

Commodities

Production and commodities

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US82.8 cents a pound in the week ending 1 August 2012, 2.3 per cent lower than in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US22.6 cents a pound in the week ending 1 August 2012, 4 per cent lower than in the previous week.

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$366 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012, compared with US$371 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$341 a tonne for the week ending 1 August 2012, compared with US$349 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$634 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012, compared with US$638 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $545 a tonne in the week ending 1 August 2012, compared with $570 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian indicator price for feed barley (Sydney) averaged $260 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012, compared with $263 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian indicator price for feed wheat (Sydney, GP) averaged $290 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012, compared with $310 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian indicator price for grain sorghum (Sydney) averaged $245 a tonne in the week ending 31 July 2012, compared with $250 a tonne in the previous week.

Climate

For the week ending 1 August, light to moderate rainfall was recorded in southern parts of Victoria and South Australia, and south west Western Australia. The highest measured rainfall for the week was 66 millimetres (mm) at Cabbage Tree Creek in south east Victoria.

Colder than average temperatures throughout July 2012 have reportedly decreased vegetable production in Queensland.

In the coming week up to 20mm of rain is forecast for cropping areas of Western Australia and south east Australia. The rain should provide timely moisture for the growth of winter crops and pastures after some cropping areas in Western Australia had the driest July on record (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Monthly Climate Summary for Australia’ 1 August 2012).

Continued warming in the Tropical Pacific Ocean shows a pattern typical of the development stage of an El Niño event. Climate models are suggesting a return to weak El Niño conditions by the end of winter or spring 2012. No models predict a return to La Niña conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 31 July 2012).

During an El Niño event, winter and spring rainfall is typically below average in large parts of central and south eastern Australia. But as the influence of El Nino typically begins to weaken throughout the year, it is not uncommon for hot and dry conditions at the start of summer to be replaced by cooler and wetter conditions in the latter half of the season (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Australian rainfall patterns during El Niño and La Niña events’).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 1 August 2012, light to moderate rainfall was recorded in south west Western Australia, southern Victoria and South Australia, with the exception of heavier falls in an isolated pocket of south east Victoria. For further information, click here.

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