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USDA Wheat Outlook


15 August 2012

USDA Wheat Outlook - August 2012USDA Wheat Outlook - August 2012

U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn.
USDA Wheat Outlook

Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Despite reduced wheat production prospects, and sharply higher world wheat prices, foreign wheat use for 2012/13 is projected up, with more wheat being used for feed. Projected 2012/13 world wheat ending stocks are down this month 5.3 million tons, and are projected to decline this month in all major wheat-exporting countries, except the United States and Argentina. Competition among exporters for 2012/13 is driven by a massive reduction in Russian exports following its wheat production cut. Projected U.S exports are unchanged as high domestic wheat prices spurred by skyrocketing corn prices are expected to limit the competitiveness of U.S. supplies in world markets. Record world wheat trade for 2011/12 is projected to increase further this month.

Domestic Situation and Outlook

Ending Stocks for 2012/13 Projected To Increase From July

Ending stocks of wheat for 2012/13 are projected to be up 34 million bushels from July to 698 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected down 45 million bushels from 2011/12 as total use increases more than supplies.

Total production is forecast at 2,268 million bushels, up 44 million bushels from July and up 269 million bushels from 2011/12. Planted and harvested areas are unchanged for all classes from July. Total planted area is forecast at 56.0 million acres, up 1.6 million acres from the previous year. Total harvested area is forecast at 48.8 million acres, up 3.1 million acres from the previous year. The all-wheat yield is forecast at 46.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from July and up 2.8 bushels from the previous year.

Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class

Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast to be up 2 million bushels from July to 1,012 million bushels and up 232 million bushels from a year ago. Production is up year to year with the higher forecast planted area for the 2012 crop and the expected smaller abandonment rate. Yields are also higher due to the recovery from the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains the previous year. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2012 are 30.0 million acres, up 1.5 million acres; 24.5 million acres, up 3.1 million acres; and 41.3 bushels per acre (up 0.1 bushels from July), up 4.9 bushels per acre, respectively.

Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast up 6 million bushels from July to 435 million bushels, but down 23 million bushels from last year. SRW production is forecast lower year to year with both lower planted and harvested areas and lower yield. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2012 are 8.3 million acres, down 0.3 million acres; 7.2 million acres, down 0.2 million acres; and 60.5 bushels per acre (up 0.8 bushels from July), down 1.2 bushels per acre, respectively.

White winter wheat production for 2012 is estimated to total 236 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from July and down 20 million bushels from the previous year. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat are as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):

Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class

Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 463 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from July and up 65 million bushels from 2011. HRS production is forecast up year to year as higher yields more than offset lower planted and harvested areas. Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2012, respectively, are 11.4 million acres, down 0.2 million acres; 11.1 million acres, down 0.2 million acres; and 41.6 bushels per acre (up 2.4 bushels from July), up 6.4 bushels per acre.

White spring production is estimated to total 36.9 million bushels, up 0.6 million bushels from July, but down 20.6 million bushels from 2011/12.The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat are as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS):

Durum wheat production is forecast to total 86.0 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from July and up 35.5 million bushels from a year ago. Durum production is forecast up year to year with higher planted and harvested areas and higher yield. In the previous year, excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings. Planted area in 2011 was the lowest since 1960. Forecast planted area, harvested area, yield, and year-to-year changes for 2012, respectively, are 2.2 million acres, up 834,000 acres; 2.1 million acres, up 810,000 acres; and 40.5 bushels per acre (up 1.9 bushels from July), up 2.0 bushels per acre.

Projected 2012/13 Supplies Up This Month

The 2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat supplies is raised 54 million bushels from July. Beginning stocks for 2012/13, at 743 million bushels, are unchanged from July. Projected imports, at 130 million bushels, are up 10 million bushels from July. Production is forecast at 2,268 million bushels, up 44 million bushels from July.

Projected 2012/13 Supplies Up From 2011/12

Total supply is increased by 167 million bushels from 2011/12 to 3,141 million bushels. Supplies of HRW, HRS, and durum are up year to year, while white is down and SRW is nearly unchanged. HRW supplies increased the most, as larger production more than offset lower beginning stocks. Durum supply also increased sharply percentagewise as larger production more than offset lower beginning stocks. The supply of HRS increased, as the production increase was larger than decline year-to-year in beginning stocks. Lower SRW production more than offset its higher beginning stocks, reducing 2012/13 supplies slightly from the previous year. White wheat supplies are lower than in 2011/12 because of both lower beginning stocks and production.

Projected 2012/13 Utilization Up This Month

The 2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat use is raised 20 million bushels from July. Food use and seed use are unchanged from July. Feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. The 20-million-bushel increase is in HRW. Exports are unchanged from July.

Projected 2012/13 Utilization Up From 2011/12

Total use is increased by 212 million bushels from 2011/12 to 2,443 million bushels. All classes except white have increased use year to year. HRW use increases the most due to sharply higher expected exports.

Total food use is expected up 9 million bushels from 2011/12 to 950 million bushels, with increased usage of HRS and durum more than offsetting slightly smaller food use of HRW. Feed and residual use is up 57 million bushels from 2011/12 to 220 million bushels. Total exports are expected up 150 million bushels to 1,200 million bushels, led by a 203-million-bushel increase for HRW. A small increase is expected for SRW exports. Exports of the other three classes are expected to decline, especially white.

Projected 2012/13 Ending Stocks Up From July, But Down From 2011/12

The 2012/13 outlook for U.S. wheat ending stocks is raised 34 million bushels from July. The year-to-year decline from 2011/12 is 45 million bushels to 698 million bushels for 2012/13. The decline is led by reduced stocks for the HRW and SRW. Ending stocks for white are expected to change only marginally. Durum and HRS stocks are expected to increase.
Total ending stocks for 2012/13 are expected to decrease by 6 percent from 2011/12. Stocks of HRW and SRW are expected down 22 and 14 percent, respectively. Stocks of durum and HRS are expected up 70 percent and 21 percent, respectively. White ending stocks are nearly unchanged.

2012/13 Price Range Is Raised

The 2012/13 season-average farm price range is projected $7.60 to $9.00, up from $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel in July on tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices. This compares with the record $7.24 per bushel reported for 2011/12.

Situation for the 2011/12 Marketing Year

2011/12 Supplies

Total supplies for 2011/12, at 2,974 million bushels, are down 3 million bushels from July because of lower imports. Supplies for 2011/12 are 305 million bushels below 2010/11. Year to year, lower beginning stocks and production were only slightly offset by higher imports. 2011/12 supplies of HRW, HRS, and durum are down year to year, mostly because of reduced production. HRW production is down from the previous year because of reduced harvested area and lower yields. Year to year, the planted area for the 2011 HRW crop is slightly smaller than 2010, but the rate of abandonment is up sharply and yields are down from the previous year due to the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains. HRS and durum production are down from a year ago with lower planted and harvested areas and lower yields. Excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings. The 2011 HRS crop was reduced by a greater percentage from 2010 than the HRW crop. The result was a substantial premium of HRS over HRW and a substitution of HRW for HRS in some flour blends.

Supplies of SRW and white are up from 2010/11, mostly because of larger production. SRW production is up from the previous year because of larger harvested area and higher yields. The 2011 crop area recovered from 2010, when a rain-delayed row-crop harvest and low prices reduced SRW seedings in the fall of 2009. Due to excellent weather conditions through much of the season, production was up significantly from the previous year, with production in many of the SRW States up more than 100 percent from 2010. White wheat production was up due to both higher area and yield.

All-wheat 2011 production is 1,999 million bushels, unchanged from July, but down 208 million bushels from 2010. All-wheat harvested area is estimated at 45.7 million acres, unchanged from June and down 1.9 million acres from the previous year. The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 43.7 bushels per acre for 2011, unchanged from June, but down 2.6 bushels from 2010.

All-wheat imports for 2011/12 are down 3 million bushels from July. Small changes are made for all classes of wheat based on final trade numbers for the marketing year. 2011/12 imports are up 15 million bushels year to year, mostly due to higher HRS, durum, and SRW imports. Imports of HRS and durum are higher year to year because of tighter U.S. supplies for these classes of wheat. The increase in SRW imports reflects shipments of feed-quality wheat from the EU. 2011/12 carryin stocks, in total and by class, are unchanged from July. Projected 2011/12 carryin stocks of HRS and SRW are down sharply year to year. The carryin stocks for the other classes are nearly unchanged year to year.

2011/12 Use

Domestic use of wheat for 2011/12 is 1,181 million bushels, down 5 million bushels from July, but 53 million bushels higher than last year. Total food use for 2011/12 is 941 million bushels, up slightly from July based on flour production data provided by the North American Millers Association. Food use for 2011/12 is up 15 million bushels from 2010/11. Projected seed use is unchanged from July. Feed and residual use this month is 163 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from July based on final numbers for trade and food use for the marketing year. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is 31 million bushels higher than in 2010/11.

Exports for 2011/12 are up 2 million bushels from July to 1,050 million bushels based on the final trade numbers for the marketing year. Small changes are made for each class of wheat At 1,050 million bushels, exports are down 239 million bushels from 2010/11 because of higher production in several major exporting countries and relatively high U.S. prices. Total U.S. ending stocks for 2011/12, at 743 million bushels, are unchanged from July and down 119 million bushels from 2010/11.

All-wheat ending stocks are down 14 percent from 2010/11. Durum, white, HRS and HRW ending stocks are estimated down from 2010/11 by 28 percent, 25 percent, 18 percent, and 18 percent, respectively. SRW ending stocks are up 8 percent from 2010/11.

2011/12 Price Is Unchanged

The 2011/12 season-average farm price is a record $7.24 per bushel, unchanged from July. This compares with $5.70 per bushel for the previous year and the previous 2008/09 record high of $6.78 per bushel.

Posting of 2011/12 Estimates

The 2011/12 supply and disappearance estimates by quarter and by class will be posted in the ERS wheat briefing room in a few days at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data.aspx#25377

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2012-21

Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat.

International Situation and Outlook

World Wheat Production Projected Down This Month

World wheat production for 2012/13 is projected to decline this month by 2.5 million tons, following a 3.7-million-ton projected drop in foreign production that more than offsets a 1.2- million-ton increase in U.S. wheat output. Foreign wheat production projected for 2012/13 is reduced this month to 601.1 million tons, almost 40 million tons below last year’s (2011/12) record of 640.3 million tons for foreign wheat output. Foreign wheat area is projected down slightly by less than 0.5 percent this month. Major reductions in production are made for Russia and Kazakhstan, reflecting a deteriorating outlook for spring wheat conditions. Wheat production prospects are also trimmed for Turkey, Argentina, Syria, and the EU-27. These reductions are partly offset by higher projected output in India, Ukraine, the United States, Canada, and several other countries.

The biggest drops in wheat production occurred in Russia and Kazakhstan, where the month-onmonth decrease in production reached 6.0 and 2.0 million tons, lowering output to 43.0 and 11.0 million, respectively. This month, the reduction in wheat production comes from lower estimated wheat area in Russia and from yield decreases in both countries. Wheat area in Russia is projected down 1.5 million hectares, following recent government-led field surveys that indicated higher-than expected winterkill in the high-yielding Krasnodar and Stavropol regions in the southern district, as well as in Tatarstan and Bashkorstan in the Volga region. In both Russia and Kazakhstan, severe heat and drought in July and the beginning of August affected much of the primary spring wheat areas in European Russia (Volga District), conditions that stretched to the Urals, Siberia (Altay and Novosibirsk), and northern Kazakhstan, with the vegetation index deteriorating week after week. Rainfall has been very light across the affected areas, many of which have had less than 50 percent of normal precipitation, and in some parts precipitation was about 10 percent of normal. The only exception was a limited area in northern Kazakhstan that received good rains, the only area that stands out as favorable on the vegetation index maps. Throughout most of the spring wheat areas, high temperatures, very damaging for wheat – above 35 degrees C (95 F) – have occurred for several uninterrupted days, at a critical time when the wheat is filling, flowering, and maturing.

In Turkey, where the wheat harvest is almost complete, wheat production is reduced 0.75 million tons to 15.75 million. Adverse weather conditions – low temperatures in winter and dry conditions in spring – resulted in poor germination of wheat plants and yield loss. Central Anatolia Plateau was primarily affected, with wheat yields in that region down 40 percent on the year.

In Argentina, 2012/13 wheat production prospects are decreased by 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million. Despite reasonably good planting conditions this year and high projected wheat prices, uncertainties about how the Government is going to handle the new quota regime affected farmers’ land allocation decisions, as the risks are perceived higher for wheat producers than for barley growers. The hopes for additional late planting in the central and southern parts of the country have not yet materialized, and wheat planting is virtually over. This resulted in a 0.2- million-hectare projected wheat area reduction. Estimated wheat production for 2010/11 and 2011/12 are increased this month, boosting the country’s wheat supplies. Wheat production estimates for 2010/11 and 2011/12 are increased 0.6 and 0.5 million tons to 16.7 and 15.0 million, respectively, reflecting reported use, which includes the assessment of domestic consumption, as export data and mill-grind statistics point to higher production than that reported by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Wheat production in Syria is projected down 0.3 million tons to 3.7 million, reflecting the forecast of the Syrian Department of Agriculture. There are indications that political unrest slowed down and delayed wheat harvesting to some extent because of the fuel shortages.

Wheat production in the EU-27 is projected down 0.2 million tons to 132.9 million. The various countries’ changes are largely offsetting, and generate an aggregate marginal decrease for the region. Relentless dryness and high temperatures in the eastern countries of the EU-27 generated lower wheat yields in Slovakia, Romania, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Bulgaria. However, in Poland and Bulgaria projected wheat production is still up because of estimated area increases.

Wheat yield and production is also down in the UK, where excessive rains harmed the crop. Partly offsetting are projected increases in wheat production in France, Italy, and Serbia. In France, timely rains and ample soil moisture created excellent crop conditions and higher than expected yields. According to the latest report of the French Ministry of Agriculture, wheat production is expected to reach 39.0 million tons, up 1.0 million this month. Wheat in Italy has been already harvested, and reported production is up 0.4 million tons to 7.2 million.

Reductions in 2012/13 wheat production are partly offset by increased production prospects in India, Ukraine, the U.S., Canada, and several other countries. Wheat production for India is increased 2.9 million tons to a record 93.9 million, up 8 percent on the year, based on the latest estimate from the Government of India. The harvest was virtually complete in May, and the beneficial growing conditions (an average strength 2011 monsoon provided irrigation supplies and favorable weather during the dry season growing period promoted record yields), as well as strong prices at planting, support increases in area and yield.

In Ukraine, the fairly beneficial weather conditions in spring and June-July promoted recovery of winter wheat that had been weakened by adverse fall and winter weather. Winter wheat comprises more than 95 percent of total wheat in Ukraine. The harvest is complete, and harvest reports point to a 2-million-ton increase in Ukraine wheat production to 15.0 million. Canadian 2012/13 wheat production is projected up 0.4 million tons to 27.0 million this month, reflecting beneficial weather for wheat development across the Prairies states – Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, which produce 97 percent of Canadian spring wheat.

Wheat production for 2012/13 in Uzbekistan and Morocco, where harvesting is complete, is projected up 0.4 and 0.2 million tons, respectively. Small changes in wheat production are also projected for Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Wheat Beginning Stocks Are Slightly Up

A reduction in projected 2012/13 foreign wheat output this month is slightly offset by a 0.4- milion-ton increase in foreign beginning stocks. This change results from numerous, partly offsetting 2011/12 wheat balance changes. Beginning stocks increased in the following countries: in Kazakhstan by 1.0 million tons as a result of a 2011/12 reduction in wheat domestic consumption; and in Egypt, Indonesia, Thailand, Algeria, Philippines, and Venezuela because of higher imports, with the import increases ranging from 0.35 million tons in Egypt to 0.1 million tons in Venezuela; small upward changes are also made for Russia, Argentina, and for a number of other countries. Beginning stocks decreased in Australia, South Korea, and Ukraine by 1.0, 0.4, and 0.3 million tons, respectively, following final 2011/12 upward export revisions for Australia and Ukraine, and a downward import revision for South Korea. Small reductions in beginning stocks are made for several more countries.

World Wheat Use Up Despite Higher Prices

Despite reduced wheat production prospects, and sharply higher world wheat prices supported by higher corn prices, foreign wheat use for 2012/13 is projected up 2.6 million tons this month to 649.4 million (though this figure is 14.0 million tons lower than for 2011/12). Foreign feed use for 2012/13 is up 3.2 million tons this month, while food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is down slightly, with sizeable adjustments in individual countries largely offsetting.

Tighter domestic corn supplies and higher projected corn prices for 2012/13 warrant some shift from corn to wheat feeding as feed-quality wheat becomes more price competitive relative to corn in several countries. Wheat feeding is boosted 1.0 million tons to 55.0 million in the EU-27, as its corn production is reduced by much more than wheat (by almost 4.0 million tons). Prospects for EU wheat feed also appear more favorable as rain during the harvest in northern Europe could reduce wheat quality. Wheat is also projected to substitute for corn as feed in South Korea, Vietnam, and Israel, where wheat feeding is up 0.5, 0.5, and 0.3 million tons, respectively. A recovery in wheat supplies in Ukraine is expected to boost its wheat feeding by 1.0 million tons in 2012/13. Wheat feeding is adjusted upward by smaller amounts this month in Thailand, India, and Philippines. Because of dwindling wheat supplies, Russian wheat feeding is adjusted down 0.5 million tons. Tiny adjustments in wheat feeding are made for Guatemala, Ecuador, Uruguay, and New Zealand.

The only important change in wheat food use this month is for India, up 1.3 million tons. In an attempt to contain its double-digit food inflation, and with another record harvest, the Indian Government is expected to unload additional amounts of grain from its stocks. Reductions in projected food, seed, and industrial use for Ukraine, EU-27, Morocco, Russia, and others more than offset the Indian increase, and are mostly a reflection of lower wheat supplies and higher prices.

Reduced Global Stocks Adequate To Meet Demand

Projected 2012/13 world wheat ending stocks are down this month 5.3 million tons, almost 3 percent, to 177.2 million. While foreign ending stocks decline almost 4 percent, or 6.2 million tons, to 158.2 million, the foreign stocks-to-use ratio remains at an adequate 25.6 percent (down from 26.8 percent last month and from 27.9 percent last year). Though U.S. stocks are projected up 0.9 million tons to 19.0 million this month, they are expected to fall to the lowest level in 4 years, with the stocks-to-use ratio of 28.6 percent. However, stocks are sufficient to meet the expected demand for wheat. Although 20 million tons lower than last year, projected 2012/13 world ending stocks are more than 9 million tons higher than in 2008/09, and almost 50 million tons higher than in 2007/08.

Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected to decline this month in all major wheat-exporting countries, except the U.S. and Argentina (the latter does not usually carry substantial stocks). The main reasons for these declines are lower expected supplies and higher expected exports reflecting expanded demand for feed-quality wheat, as escalating corn prices encourage a shift to wheat feeding.

The largest reduction in ending stocks is for the EU-27, where ending stocks are forecast down 1.6 million tons this month to 10.9 million. EU stocks decline because of lower production, higher projected exports, and higher feed use (though the decline is partly offset by higher import prospects). In Australia, ending stocks are projected down 1.5 million tons to 6.1 million, reflecting higher 2012/13 projected exports and lower beginning stocks. In all three FSU wheat exporters –- Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine –- ending stocks are down by 1.1, 1.0, and 0.9 million tons, respectively. In Russia, a decline in wheat production is only partly offset by lower prospects for domestic consumption and export, while in Kazakhstan lower production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks. Higher projected wheat production in Ukraine is more than offset by increased consumption and larger exports. In Canada, stocks are down 0.7 million tons this month, as a projected increase in exports more than offsets production growth. For a number of countries, numerous downward ending stocks adjustments reflect production, trade, and consumption changes.

The projected increases in the ending stocks for various countries are partly offsetting. For foreign countries, the largest are made for India, up 1.5 million tons as a production increase exceeds higher food consumption; and for Argentina, up 0.3 million tons to 0.9 million, because the reduction in projected exports exceeds that for production.

World Wheat Trade Up for Both 2011/12 and 2012/13, U.S Exports Unchanged

Importer’s recent buying pace indicates continued strong demand for wheat, despite relatively high prevailing prices. The largest 2011/12 increases are for Turkey, up 0.6 million tons to 4.4 million, and for Egypt, up 0.4 million tons to 11.6 million, with both countries’ total imports setting a record. Many minor revisions were made to countries’ 2011/12 imports as more data became available for the July-June trade year, boosting estimated record world wheat trade up even further by 2.3 million tons to 151.6 million. This month, 2011/12 international trade year exports are up within the range of 0.2-0.5 million tons for almost all major exporters –- Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine.

World wheat trade projected for 2012/13 increased 1.1 million tons this month to 136.7 million, as demand for feed wheat has increased, reflecting higher corn prices that make wheat more competitive in feeding. With reduced production, especially in Spain (down 1.8 million tons, or 30 percent, on the year), EU-27 wheat imports are projected 0.5 million tons higher at 6.0 million. Wheat imports are up 0.5 million tons for both South Korea and Vietnam, as well as up 0.3 million tons for Israel, as these countries partly shift their feeding away from corn. Import prospects for Mexico, Venezuela, and Oman increased 0.1 million tons, each. In Egypt, Morocco, Uzbekistan, and Algeria, wheat imports are down 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2 million tons, respectively, mainly reflecting those countries’ larger domestic production and/or accumulated stocks. Small (under 0.1 million tons) largely offsetting imports changes are made for a number of other countries.

Competition among exporters for 2012/13 is driven this month by a massive reduction in Russian exports following its wheat production cut. Projected 2012/13 wheat exports for Russia are cut 4.0 million tons this month, to 8.0 million, a decline of 13.6 million tons on the year. Despite lower supplies, Russia has been exporting at a rapid pace, and shipped 1.8 million tons of wheat in July. Producers are trying to get ahead of potential export restrictions, despite the government’s assurances that no controls are necessary this year to maintain the country’s domestic wheat needs. Export prospects are reduced this month for Argentina and Turkey, down 0.5 million tons for each, reflecting lower production in both countries.

Other major wheat exporters are expected to fill the void created by the Russian drought, taking advantage of better export opportunities (especially vis-à-vis Russia). The major beneficiaries in this competition are projected to be Ukraine, with exports up 2.0 million tons; EU-27, up 1.0 million tons; Canada, up 1.0 million tons; and Australia, up 0.5 million tons. Exports from Serbia and Croatia, (neither of which is an EU member) are up 0.1 million tons each, and will most likely go to the EU. All these exporters currently have adequate wheat stocks, though stocks are expected to fall in each country to a much lower level by the end of this year.

Exports are also projected up 0.5 and 0.2 million tons in Brazil and Uruguay, reflecting high world demand and lower exports projected for their neighbor Argentina. Pakistan exports are up 0.5 million tons, based on reports of increased exports to the Asian countries. The Dominican Republic exported 0.2 million tons of wheat flour to Haiti, such that its exports are projected up 0.2 million tons.

U.S. exports projected for 2012/13 (for both the July-June international trade year and June-May local marketing year) are left unchanged this month, despite higher supplies and lower foreign production. The current pace of U.S. export sales are sluggish and expected to be limited by high domestic prices spurred by skyrocketing corn prices. U.S. corn production is forecast at the lowest level since 2006/07 with corn yields the lowest since 1995/96.. According to U.S. Export Sales, wheat shipments during June and July 2012 were down 16 percent compared with the previous year, and as of August 2, 2012 outstanding 2012/13 sales of U.S. wheat were down 7 percent compared with the same week last year. U.S. imports for 2012/13 are projected up almost 0.3 million tons (10 million bushels), on the expectation of higher wheat feed demand.

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