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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


21 September 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 20 September 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 20 September 2012

Predicted rainfall, will benefit grain production in most areas, particularly the Victorian Mallee and northern parts of the Western Australia grain belt, which have experienced hot and windy conditions in recent weeks.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Climate

This week, rainfall of up to 25 millimetres has been recorded across grain growing regions of southern and eastern Australia. The falls are likely to benefit grain production in most areas, particularly the Victorian Mallee and northern parts of the Western Australia grain belt, which have experienced hot and windy conditions in recent weeks. As crops in these areas have experienced losses in yield potential due to the recent dry conditions, additional rainfall will be required to alleviate further losses in yield potential.

Rainfall in parts of central Queensland during the week has provided some relief for pastoralists, following dryer than normal conditions during August and a dry start to September 2012 for the region.

Warmer than normal waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean indicate the October to December 2012 period is likely to be dryer than normal over large parts of southeast Australia, while western parts of Western Australia and southwest Queensland are likely to experience wetter than normal conditions (Bureau of Meteorology 'National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 19 September 2012).

Persistently warmer than normal waters in the Indian Ocean are likely to influence temperatures from October to December 2012 with warmer than normal days and nights expected over most of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology 'National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook 19 September 2012).

Rainfall

For the week ending 19 September 2012, little or no rainfall was recorded across much of northern and central Australia. A cold front produced rain in south-east Australia in the earlier part of the week, with thunderstorm activity bringing rain to parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The highest total recorded rainfall for the week was 74 mm at Mount Read in western Tasmania.

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.


Water

" Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin increased by 105 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 98 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2406 GL more than this time last year.

Commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$377 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$365 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$323 a tonne for the week ending 19 Sep 2012, compared with US$326 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$666 a tonne in the week ending 18 September 2012, compared with US$660 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook 'A' index) averaged US 84.1 cents a pound in the week ending 19 September 2012, 1.3 per cent lower than in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.6 cents a pound in the week ending 19 September 2012, 1.2 per cent higher than in the previous week.

The Brazil Sugar Growers Association and the Federal Government of Brazil have agreed to raise the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent from the beginning of 2013.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $550 a tonne in the week ending 17 September 2012, compared with $530 a tonne in the previous week.

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