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CME: Crop Progress Normal

CME: Crop Progress Normal

29 April 2015

US - The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly Crop Progress report indicated more or less normal gains in corn planting for the past week and said that soybean planting is off to a pretty normal sort of start as well, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

Data for the 18 key states are represented by the charts. Note that the averages shown here are actual averages of the data for same weeks one year prior.

Our data will not match USDA’s 5 year average data which involves some sort of extrapolations, we think, to account for slightly different dates.

Corn planting has been completed on 19 per cent of acres as of Sunday. That is well below the 25 per cent average from 2010 through 2014 but is actually a bit ahead of last year’s 17 per cent as of the last Sunday in April.  

As we recall, last year’s crop turned out pretty well after a lot of hand-wringing over plantings that trailed the average pace all spring.  

Southern states are lagging badly at this point and most observers believe we are at a point that some acres will switch to beans. Kentucky producers have planted only 7 per cent of their corn versus a “normal” pace of 45 per cent. For Tennessee, those figures are 17 per cent and 60 per cent.  

South Dakota and Minnesota are the only states that are significantly ahead of their normal pace but conditions in both states are very dry at the moment. We see nothing to be alarmed about at this point, especially since planting date is a VERY poor predictor of eventual crop yield or size.

Soybean planting is just beginning with only 2 per cent of acres planted as of Sunday. That compares to 3 per cent last year and 4 per cent, on average, from 2010 to 2014.  

The key point here is that enough acres have been planted to begin the 2015 line in the week ended April 26.

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