How Big Is the US Corn Crop?

Hello! Monday’s Crop Progress Report came in for corn at 95% planted - right in line with market expectations - up from 91% a week ago. This is the slowest pace for corn since 1995/96. Trader speculation that up to 3 million acres may have been switched to soybeans and/or prevent plant insurance continues to provide support.

Soybean planting also hit the trade expectation mark at 71% planted, up 14% from last week and the slowest pace since 1995. The market also traded lower Monday on a more favorable weather outlook in the coming week.

University of Illinois agricultural economist, Darrel Good, said the market is struggling to anticipate the size of the 2013 US corn crop. Over the past three weeks, December 2013 corn futures have traded from a low of $5.12 to a high of $5.735 as production expectations continue to unfold.

Production speculation is the result of uncertainty about the size of planted acreage and yield prospects associated with late planting of crops.

Good said there is room for a much smaller crop than the early prospects of 14 billion bushels before rationing would be required during the upcoming marketing year. A crop of 13 billion bushels would be sufficient to meet expected needs at current new crop price levels. The USDA will provide updated projections in the June 12 WASDE report.

China is likely to mark its tenth consecutive year of reaping a bumper harvest of summer grain crops in 2013, according to Agriculture Minister Han Changfu. About 80% of the summer grain crops have been harvested in southwestern China. Most wheat is ripe, and the rapeseed harvest is expected to see an increase in acreage, yield and output.

Minister Han noted that summer crops should show a slight increase in acreage, a higher yield with the largest growth coming from regions along the Yellow, Huaihe and Haihe rivers. The acreage for summer grain crops topped 415 million mu (27.67 million hectares), up 700,000 mu (46,666 hectares) from last year's crop.

China estimates that 14 million sets of farm equipment will be used for the summer grain harvest, and mechanized harvesting for winter wheat may account for 92% of its total growing acreage.

China's summer grain crops, which are mostly wheat and early-maturing rice, account for about 20% of its annual grain output, while autumn grain crops, predominately corn and middle- and late-maturing rice, account for about 80%.

Have a great week!