Crop Production Report Says $4.50 Corn, $12.15 Soybeans

Greetings from a very cool Midwest! As I am writing, snow is falling outside my window and I am reminded that autumn is quickly coming to a close. 

Friday’s USDA Crop Production report projected a record crop at 13.989 billion bushels – up nearly 1 billion bushels from the record set in 2007. That figure was modestly bullish as the average trade guess expected production at 14.022 billion bushels.

USDA lowered harvested corn acres by nearly 1.9 million and soybean acres by about 700,000, primarily because of land that did not get planted due to excessive spring rains.

Another positive result for US farmers is that USDA recognized the growing demand for the nation's corn and soybean crops from both export buyers, such as China, and domestic buyers, such as livestock producers.

The USDA is estimating the national average farm-level corn price for the 2013 crop will be $4.50 per bushel, compared with $6.89 per bushel for the 2012 crop.

USDA put the national average corn yield at 160.4 bu. per acre, up from the September estimate of 155.3 bu. per acre. For the 2013-14 U.S. carryout, corn was projected at 1.887 billion bushels, up from September report figure of 1.855 billion bushels. For 2013-14 global carryover, corn is seen at 164.33 million metric tons (MMT), up from September figure of 151.42 MMT.

USDA projected national soybean production to reach 3.26 billion bushels, which would represent the third-largest crop on record. The national average price received for 2013 soybeans is estimated to be $12.15, compared with $14.40 for the 2012 crop.

"We haven't seen the same erosion in soybean prices that we have in corn because of the strong demand from China and tight world supplies until the South American crop comes into the markets later this winter," Purdue Extension agricultural economist Chris Hurt said. "Soybeans could be a stabilizing influence in farm incomes."

US wheat carryover is seen by USDA at 565 million bushels in its latest report. That's up slightly from September estimate of 561 million bushels. World wheat carryout is seen by USDA at 178.48 MMT, which is up from September's 176.28 MMT.

Also in recent news, the Supertyphoon Haiyan (also known as Typhoon Yolanda) devastated the Philippines on November 8. The Philippine Daily Inquirer reports that Haiyan destroyed a total of Philippine Peso 138.6 million (US$3,180,038) worth of crops in the Bicol and Mimaropa regions. A total of 9,857 metric tons of rice, corn and high value crops on some 5,500 hectares of farm land were damaged.

Just a few short weeks ago, Philippine Agriculture Secretary Proceso J. Alcala reported expectations for another record corn harvest at 8.2 million metric tons (MMT), about 11% more than last year’s output of 7.4 MMT, and 28% more than in 2010.

Annual production of corn — the country’s second most important crop next to rice — has been boosting the country’s corn sufficiency level from 83% in 2010 to 98% in 2012, and 105% by year-end.

We’ll have to wait and see how badly Typhoon Haiyan has impacted the record corn crop.

Haiyan made landfall in northern province of Quang Ninh, Vietnam at 5:00am local time on Monday as a tropical storm. It was moving towards southern China and is expected to weaken to a low depression later on Monday.

Our thoughts are with those who have been impacted by this storm.

Be safe - Sarah