Argentina's Soybean Acreage Goes Up, Up, Up

Brrrr… from the cold, windy and now I can report snowy (or icy depending on your location) Midwest! And the wintry feel isn’t going anywhere this week.

The US winter wheat area was hit with ice and extremely cold temps over the weekend, reported Paul Georgy at Allendale Inc. Traders are talking about potential winterkill but the true effect won’t be known until spring.

Now that the US is past harvest, all eyes have moved to South America, where the weather looks great for growing crops. The weekend rains there are expected to maintain crops during a week with warmer temps in the forecast.

It's a big report week which could bring new direction to the grain futures market. USDA releases the December Supply and Demand report today, and many are expecting an upward adjustment in demand and a reduction in ending stocks. Paul Georgy said Allendale’s research suggests the USDA will make very minimal changes, if any.

Georgy also reports that many are thinking we are past the peak Chinese buying of US soybeans. And the calendar is suggesting we could see more movement of grain in the US as farmers take advantage of year-end tax planning.

Chris Ries, market analyst with Ries Ag Marketing, wrote recently that expectations for Argentina's soy crop are going up, up up after poor weather prevented corn planting in some regions this year. Farmers now must decide whether to plant late corn or switch to soybeans.

Ries said lower yield prospects for late planted corn and higher prices for soybeans are prompting more Argentine farmers to switch their corn acreage to beans.

The larger-than-expected South American soybean crop could help moderate yield risks during the upcoming Southern Hemisphere summer, allowing foreign buyers to take a more relaxed stance on U.S. purchases this winter. Increasing confidence in a record-size soybean crop in South America in 2014 lessens the need to stockpile high-priced U.S. supplies this year, Ries added.

Year-to-date soybean sales have already reached 94% of USDA's 1.45 billion bushel marketing year estimate, while the average pace for this period is just 65%.

Have a great week!
Sarah