What are the Bulls Watching? 

Greetings from a warm but wet Chicago. To give you a sense of how wet… the petunias in one of my flower planters have not survived – yes, my own fault – poor drainage, but never-the-less it’s an indicator of how much rain has come down here in the upper Midwest.

In news this week… The HGCA, the cereals and oilseeds division of the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, said the bulls got a boost from crude and palm oil prices which pushed vegetable oil prices higher.

Crude oil prices increased for the second consecutive week over fears of the tensions in Iraq. Coupled with concerns over the effect of dry and hot weather in Malaysia on palm oil yields, this has provided a boost for vegetable oil prices.

Palm oil is the cheapest vegetable oil, so when its price rises, it makes other vegetable oils (eg. soya oil, rapeseed oil) look more attractive. The potential for higher demand then causes the price of these oils to increase as well, all else being equal, says the HGCA.

Bulls are also watching heavy rains across the US Plains and Midwest which fueled fears for crop quality as well as delays to the wheat harvest. Midwest rains are expected to continue this week and could cause flooding. Chicago corn futures reached a two week high on Friday, June 20.

Strategie Grains, a research firm specializing in agro-economic European markets based in Moret-sur-Loing, France,  have increased their EU soft wheat crop forecast by 2Mt to 139.4Mt, stating that good weather and ideal crop growing conditions have boosted yield prospects for the upcoming harvest.

The EU is primed to overtake the US as the world’s top wheat exporter next season. The USDA currently forecasts 2014/15 exports for the EU at 2.8Mt above the current US prediction of 25.2Mt. Freight rates have impacted US sales to Egypt, currently the world’s largest wheat importer.

In its latest tender, Egypt's GASC has purchased 120Kt and 60Kt of wheat from Romania and Russia, respectively. This is the second tender since GASC increased its limit for wheat moisture content to 13.5%.

To read more from HGCA, click here. 

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Have a great week!

~Sarah