Is Arable Output Set to Break Records By 2018?

The International Grains Council (IGC) has predicted that global grain stocks will tighten over the coming years, but after a small contraction, harvests will rise back to record-breaking levels.

The rise will mostly come from higher yields, says the IGC.

• Higher maize stocks fuel sentiment that feed wheat demand will be down this year. World maize production is expected to break 1 billion tons for the first time in 2018/19, despite a reduction on planting and yield growth rate.
• Two consecutive strong years have kept global wheat markets well supplied despite strong demand. This has built stocks from a five-year low at the end of 2012/13.
• World soybean stocks have recovered thanks to some “bumper harvests” following a production plunge in 2011/12.

Is There a Risk of Winter-kill for EU Cereal Crops?

Through December and most of January, temperatures have been above or close to average for the time of year in most parts of Europe, which the EU crop monitoring model indicates has caused very low levels of winter (frost) kill.

However, the warmer than average temperatures do mean that crops in these areas show a relatively low level of ‘hardening’, effectively meaning that crops are less ‘winter-ready’.

Also this week

In the UK, Defra’s latest Farm Business Income forecasts predict a decline in the profitability of farming across the majority of farming sectors and serve as a warning as to how much agriculture is susceptible to increased volatility.

~ Gemma