TheCropSite Newsletter - 24 April 2012

TheCropSite Weekly Newsletter

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Tuesday 24th April 2012.

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor

Editorial: Welcome to TheCropSite Newsletter

Greetings from a sunny but cool Midwest. The weather here in northern Illinois is expected to be around 50 - 65º F (10-19º C) this week, and soil moisture, which had been a concern earlier, remains high.

USDA's weekly Crop Progress Report released Monday afternoon, showed Illinois plantings at 59 per cent and Indiana coming on strong at 46 per cent. However, Iowa is actually below the 5-year average at 9 per cent planted.

This week I'm going to share highlights from another speaker at the Bayer CropScience Ag Issues Forum. William Lapp, a grain economist with Advanced Economic Solutions, spoke about US and global agriculture trends.

Lapp said the key factors driving commodity prices to record levels are strong global economic growth that is being led by developing countries like China, a weakening of the US dollar since 2002 and the US biofuels policy.

He said emerging economies are now the engines of global growth, while the US, EU and Japan have, for the most part, stabilized.

Chinese soybean imports are expected to be 63 MMT (51MM acres) in 2012/2013. Looking 10 years out to 2021/2022, expectations suggest a rise to 90MMT (69MM acres).

Higher corn prices will mean less US meat production. The per capita meat supply has been declining since 2007. Lapp believes this has less to do with consumer demand for meat, and more to do with high grain prices, resulting in farmers/ranchers reducing their cattle supply.

Lapp said the trend in global oilseed acreage is up, up, up - rising 25 per cent in the last 10 years. Brazil and Argentina soybean acreage has risen 80 per cent and 86 per cent respectively, while EU and Canadian canola acreage has increased 66 percent and 52 per cent respectively. During the same 10 years, US soybean acreage has increased only 4 per cent.

US corn stocks for 2011/2012 season were exceptionally tight, but projections for 2012/2013 show stocks rebounding.

To read more on global economic trends, click here.

I'll close on a very personal note - my amazing twins are turning double digits (10 years old) today. Happy Birthday to Claire and Zachary - our dynamic duo!

Have a great week!

This Week's Articles and Analysis

Global Soy Exports Affected by Looming Trade War?
On April 16, Argentina nationalized the assets of Spanish oil company Repsol YPF. Spain has promised quick retaliatory action, including trade sanctions, which could halt Argentine soybean exports, write Nuria Martínez Herráez and Chris Wright for TheCropSite.

Health Threats Even as Hunger Declines in EU, Central Asia
By 2030 undernourishment will be only a minor problem in Europe and Central Asia, but obesity and diet-related illnesses like heart disease could emerge as major challenges for public policy, FAO said.

Food Waste of Processed Product at Retail, Consumption Level
Roughly one-third of the edible parts of food produced for human consumption, gets lost or wasted globally, which is about 1.3 billion ton per year. Food is wasted throughout the food supply chain, from initial agricultural production down to final household consumption, writes Dr Ashleigh Bright from the Farm Animal Initiative.

Ethanol: Driving Another Biofuels Boom
Bill Gibbons can look out his window and see where it all began. From his office he looks down on the small building where the ethanol industry was born in the United States. He should know. He was there. Since the late 1970s, Gibbons has seen the ethanol industry rise, sputter, and rise again. And now he’s getting ready for the biofuels industry to go through anothergrowth spurt.

Study: Food Labeling Doesn't Equate to Healthy Eating
A study by Université Laval's Maurice Doyon and French and American researchers shows that US consumers know surprisingly more about the fat content of the foods they buy than their French counterparts.

Managing Break of Season: Risks, Opportunities for Seeding Strategies
The success of seeding operations in low rainfall cropping regions of Western Australia depends upon the timing of seeding in relation to rainfall and subsequent soil water conditions.

Market Reports