This week we're going to take a look at weather conditions in Europe which are causing some challenges for their grain crop. The north and west have experienced unusually wet weather, which has increased lodging and disease. In the south and east, hot, dry conditions are reducing yield forecasts.
The EU27 grain crop forecast has been reduced to 276 MMT, a 7 MMT reduction on previous expectations. Within this total, the outlook for wheat and barley production is reduced by 1 MMT in both cases; corn production is reduced by 5 MMT.
Wet weather, low temperatures and reduced sunshine hours in France and the UK have delayed the development of wheat crops which are running about a week behind the norm. Reports of waterlogged fields are widespread and disease pressure is high. However, a recent spell of warm, sunny weather should assist grain fill and the wheat crops in both countries still have the potential to yield well.
Despite the conditions, the quality of the French durum crop is reported to be particularly good.
Barley crop development is slower than the norm but yield potential and quality are good to excellent. The French corn crop is revised downwards due to a reduction in planted area, but the overall yield and quality are currently forecast to be good.
In Germany, winterkill was worse than expected and the production outlook for wheat and barley crops is forecast lower. Wet weather is now creating challenging harvest conditions. However, the wet conditions are a benefit to the corn crop which has also seen an increased planted area due to the winterkill of other crops.
To the south, in Spain, high temperatures and dry weather have caused wheat and barley production expectations to be reduced, especially durum wheat. However, quality is expected to be good for the durum crop. Some May rains helped reservoir water stocks and improved the outlook for the Spanish corn area, the large majority of which is irrigated.
Dry conditions in Italy have benefited its durum and soft wheat crops. High yields and good quality are expected in the north. However, the Italian corn crop is forecast to fall by nearly 25 percent versus previous expectations due to hot, dry weather.
Moving towards the east of Europe, the persistent very dry weather this season has seen a reduction in the size of expected crops, with concerns increasing in both Bulgaria and Romania, most notably in corn in the latter.
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