USDA World Agricultural Production
12 October 2012
USDA World Agricultural Production - October 2012
Australia Wheat: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production

Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12
percent from last month, and down 6.5 million or 22 percent from last year. The area forecast is
13.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 1 percent from last month and down 0.8 million or 5
percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.73 tons per hectare, down 0.2 tons or 10 percent
from last month and down 0.4 tons or 18 percent from last year.
Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the
Australia wheat producing states at varying times. Yield is marginally forecast above the 5-year
average. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting
below-average September winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Overall, seasonal
conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia; and wheat
production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, reflecting dry conditions
in Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. (For more information, please contact
Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0139.)
Russia Wheat: Harvest Reports Suggest Remarkably Low Spring Wheat Harvest
Russia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 38.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month and down 18.2 million or 32 percent from last year. The month-tomonth decrease attributed to an increase in the estimated amount of abandoned area in the country’s spring-wheat region. Harvested area is estimated at 21.8 million hectares, down 0.7 million from last month and down 3.1 million from last year. Total-wheat yield is forecast at 1.74 tons per hectare, nearly unchanged from last month but down 23 percent from last year, and 21 percent below the 5-year average. Winter wheat accounts for about one-half of the total wheat area but about two-thirds of production due to inherently higher yield.
Russia: Estimated Wheat Yield

The wheat harvest was nearing completion by late September although only slightly more than 80 percent of the planted area had been harvested by that time. A significant portion of the remaining area was likely destroyed by drought and could remain unharvested. Moreover, the drought contributed to a sharp year-to-year drop in reported yield and a likely high rate of abandonment. According to September 25 data from the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat yield is down 22 percent from last year in the Southern District, down 41 percent in the North Caucasus District, down 28 percent in the Volga District, down 48 percent in the Ural District and down 32 percent in the Siberian District. Only in the Central District has reported wheat yield increased from last year, by 8 percent. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690- 0143.)
United Kingdom Wheat: Production Estimate Down Due to Persistent Rainfall
The United Kingdom (UK) wheat production for 2012/13 is estimated at 14.0 million tons, down
0.8 million or 5 percent from last month, and down 1.3 million or 8 percent from last year. Area
is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 42,000 hectares or 2
percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.97 tons per hectare (t/ha) compared to 7.36 t/ha
last month and 7.75 t/ha last year.
A very wet season in the UK delayed and prolonged the wheat harvest, lowering both quality and
yield. The excessive precipitation during late summer and early autumn saturated soils and
prevented fieldwork. When a window of drier weather opened in early September, farmers
initially had to choose between harvesting wheat or sowing the early-planted crop of rapeseed.
During the first half of September the weather remained settle prompting harvest to proceed at a
rapid pace. Farmers completed most of the 2012 wheat harvest before rains returned during the
second half of September.
The frequent precipitation was conducive to disease, and the lack of sunshine during grainfill
prevented proper maturation
and drying of the crop. Sandy
soils which drain quickly
provided the best conditions
for wheat this year, but much
of the UK’s arable land
consists of heavy soils. The
UK is consistently the third
largest European Union (EU)
wheat producer behind France
and Germany, contributing
14.9 million tons on a 5-year
average or about 11 percent of
the total EU crop. (For more
information, please contact
Bryan Purcell at 202-690-
0138.)
October 2012 EU Wheat Production

Canada Barley: Production Revised Downward
The USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada barley production at 8.60 million tons, down 9.5 percent from the last month but up nearly 11 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.73 million hectares, up 15 percent from last year and unchanged from last month. Yield is estimated to drop to 3.15 tons per hectare compared to 3.48 tons per hectare last month.
Vegetation Anomaly Over Barley-Growing Regions of Canada

Barley production was
anticipated to increase due
to a 15 percent increase in
planted area compared to
last year, along with
favorable weather
conditions. However, due
to a mid-summer heat wave
and disease problems it led
to a 9.5 percent month-tomonth
reduction, and also
depreciated crop yields by
4.4 percent compared to last year. From June 17 through July 22, western prairies saw maximum temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees Celsius above normal. In addition, rainfall was scattered and
localized in the region.
Analysis of vegetative conditions, based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from
NASA’s MODIS sensor, indicate that crop conditions are below normal for about 20 percent of
the crop in east-central Saskatchewan. NDVI indicate below average conditions across the main
barley growing areas of Manitoba, and variable conditions across Alberta. Barley harvest is
complete across the western provinces. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent at 202-
720-0881.)
Australia Barley: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production
Australia barley production for 2012/13 is forecast at 7.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 13
percent from last month, and down 1.6 million or 18 percent from last year. The area forecast is
3.88 million hectares, up 75 thousand or 2 percent from last month and down 163 thousand or 4
percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.81 tons per hectare, down 14 percent from last
month, down 15 percent from last year and slightly above the 5-year average.
Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the
Australia barley producing states at various times. Nationwide, the barley crop faces mixed
prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September winter rainfall and soil
moisture conditions. Overall, seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping
regions of Australia; and barley production is forecast to decline, reflecting the dry conditions in
the 2 major producing states of Western Australia and South Australia. (For more information,
please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0139.)
Canada Rapeseed: Production Revised Downward
The USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada rapeseed production at 13.4 million tons, down 13 percent from the previous estimate and down 7.5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 8.40 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 7.4 percent from last year. Yield is estimated to drop to 1.59 tons/hectare, nearly 15 percent below the 5-year average and down 13 percent from last year.

A report from the
Saskatchewan Ministry of
Agriculture Crop Report
indicates that yields are
likely to drop by 24 percent
due to excessive moisture at seeding time and high summer temperatures, which promoted disease in plants. Alberta
provincial government also reported lower yields than anticipated in July and August due to heat,
disease, and pests.
Officials in Manitoba, which produces 21 percent of output, estimate that yields would be
average to below average, but production would increase because of an increase in planted area.
From June 17 through July 22, the western prairies reported that maximum temperatures were 3
to 6 degrees Celsius above normal. Rainfall was scattered and localized in the region. Rapeseed
harvest is nearly complete in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (For more information,
contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
European Union Corn: Production Estimate Drops for the Third Consecutive Month
European Union (EU) corn production for 2012/13 is estimated at 55.6 million tons, down 3 percent or 1.5 million from last month, and down 15 percent or 9.7 million from last year. Area is estimated at 9.0 million hectares, down 1 percent or 0.1 million from last month, but up 3 percent or 0.2 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.18 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year.
EU Corn

EU corn production
estimates fell for a third
consecutive month.
Summer crop expectations
peaked at the beginning of
July after increased corn
area and favorable spring
weather bolstered crop
prospects for much of the
area. Throughout the month
of July, however, weather
conditions in southeast
Europe deteriorated.
Prolonged heat and dryness
prevented or shortened pollination and reduced grainfill. In addition, there was an increase in
unharvested grain area as farmers abandoned fields or used them for silage. Harvest is well
underway in southeastern Europe and in the earlier stages in France.
The largest October reduction was in Romania, were a large share of the corn is not irrigated.
Output is estimated production down 0.8 million to 6.3 million tons (10.5 million last year), and
with area down 0.1 million to 2.6 million hectares. Other summer-heat and dryness-related
reductions include a 0.5 million reduction in Hungary to 4.5 million (8.1 million last year), 0.2
million reduction in Bulgaria to 4.0 million tons (5.5 million last year), and a 0.3 million ton
reduction in the French crop to 15.2 million (15.6 million last year). Estimated production
increases included Poland by 0.3 million tons to a record 3.2 million because of favorable
summer weather and increased plantings. Corn production was also increased in Spain by 0.3
million, resulting in an estimated 3.8 million tons (4.2 million last year). (For more information,
please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
China Cotton: Lower Area but Record Yield Expected in 2012/13

China’s 2012/13 cotton production is estimated at 31.5 million bales, up 0.5 million or about 2
percent from last month but down nearly 5 percent from last year’s revised estimate of 33.1
million bales (from 33.5 million). The estimated area of 5.0 million hectares is unchanged from
last month but down 9 percent from last year. The 2012/13 yield is estimated at a record 1372
kilograms per hectare, up 5 percent from a year ago. Record yields in northwest China are
expected to offset yield reductions in eastern China, which suffered from excessive rainfall and
typhoon damage during the growing season. The weather in October has been generally
favorable for cotton harvesting in most areas, and yield prospects have improved since last
month. Harvesting is underway across the country and will continue through October.
According to preliminary industry and government reports, cotton area declined in nearly every
province in 2012, particularly those in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins. China’s cotton area
has been declining in recent years (down 1.2 million hectares since 2007/08) as farmers shift
from cotton to grains (primarily corn) in response to high corn prices, government incentives to
increase grain output, rising cotton production costs, and competition from lower-priced imports.
(For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)
October 2012
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