Europe Mars Bulletins
29 January 2013
Europe Mars Bulletins Vol. 21 No. 1
EU27: Well-advanced Hardening and no Frost Kill so far

For the most part, above-average temperatures
were recorded in western Europe, while eastern
regions were colder than usual. Precipitation was
abundant in western Europe but rather scarce in
the Iberian Peninsula, Maghreb and Sicily.
The hardening of the winter crops is well advanced.
Based on our simulations, no frost kill damage is
expected between now and the end of January.
Agro-meteorological Overview
Weather conditions were variable during the considered period all over Europe. Mostly above-average temperatures were recorded in western Europe, while the eastern regions were colder than usual. Active temperatures (Tbase>0°C) exceeded the average in the British Isles, western countries of Europe and some areas of the western Mediterranean. The surplus reached 80-150 growing degree days in Fronce, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and smaller spots of Spain, the Czech Republic, Italy and Slovenia. Precipitation was abundant in western Europe, at the coastline of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea and the southern Black Sea region. Snow partially covered Europe from Germany to Russia and provided protection for the winter crops against severe frosts. The hardening of the winter crops is in accordance with the seasonal norm. Based on our simulations, no frost kill damages are expected between now and the end of January.
Observed Temperatures
Since 11 December, weather conditions were colder than
usual in eastern Europe. On the contrary, western Europe
experienced higher temperatures than the long-term
average (L TA}. The positive thermal anomaly was
especially evident in France, Germany, the Benelux
countries and the Czech Republic, where the delay in
crop development due to late sowing or unfavourable
autumn weather was diminished. The mild weather
slowed down the hardening process of winter cereals in
this region, maintaining crop vulnerability.
The second dekad of December began with a cold snap
across Europe, but from mid-December onwards
perceptible warming started from the direction of the
Atlantic Ocean and temperatures fluctuated above the
average in the western part of the continent. On
occasion, the daily maximum almost reached record
temperatures. While western Europe experienced mild
conditions, the European part of Russia was subject to
very cold weather, but conditions in this area also
became milder towards the end of December. January started with anomalous high temperatures over Europe.
The temperatures generally exceeded the LTA by 2 - 8°C
with the exception of the Iberian Peninsula, the Black
Sea Region and the easternmost parts of Russia. An
inflow of cold arctic air started from 7 January,
significantly decreasing temperatures initially in the
eastern and later in the western parts of Europe.
In general, frost events remained in the moderate range
(>- l0°C) in the lowlands of the UK, France, Germany,
Spain, Italy and Greece. However, in the eastern
countries of EU-27, Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey the
temperatures fell to between -10 and -20°C, and
temperatures of less than -20°C were recorded in the
very eastern and northern parts of Europe. Only the
south-western region of I re land, the shore of the Iberian
Peninsula, and some coastal area of Italy and Greece,
the southern Islands of the Mediterranean Sea and
North-Africa remained frost free.

Observed Rainfall and Snow Cover
Precipitation was abundant and exceeded 100 mm in
the Atlantic region including the British Isles, France,
Germany, Denmark, southern Noiway, the north-western
Iberian Peninsula and the Alpine region. The extremely
wet weather conditions experienced since the end of
September presumably caused problems during sowing
and early crop development in England.
Precipitation was also abundant in the eastern Adriatic,
the areas surrounding the Aegean Sea, Turkey, along the
eastern coastline of the Mediterranean Ocean and in the
Caucasus.
On the contrary, precipitation was scarce in Spain,
central Italy, Sicily, the western half of Romania, the
Maghreb countries and extended territories of Russia,
where precipitation was less than half of the LT A. The
dry weather led to favourable sowing conditions in
Spain, but significant precipitation is needed in the near
future t o replenish the soil moisture storage for the next
crop cycle.
In mid-December, snow covered Scandinavia and an
extended area between eastern France and the Ural
Mountains, including most of the Balkan Peninsula and
Turkey. Due to the mild weather of December and early
January the snow cover melted and disappeared from
lowlands of western and central Europe. After 5 January
snow cover was gradually re-established from eastern
border of the EU to eastern half of France.
Winter crops are fully or almost fully hardened in the
northern agricultural zones of Europe as well as in the
region from Poland to Romania and further eastwards
including Belarus, Ukraine and Russia with the exception
of smaller regions close to the Black Sea. Given the
medium-range weather forecast until 28 January, the
frost tolerance of winter crops is expected to increase
significantly in Germany and on the Balkan Peninsula.
On the basis of our frost-kill model, no frost damages
have been simulated or are expected between now and
the end of January.

Weather Forecast for the Coming Days 16 January - 28 January
Cold weather with less precipitation is forecast for southern Europe, and warmer than average northern and central Europe, abundant precipitation in temperatures in regions around Black Sea.
Precipitation Forecast
Low pressure systems over the Atlantic and almost daily basis during the forecast period. Locally, Mediterranean will dominate the weather over western and southern Europe. Abundant precipitation is therefore forecast for western and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, the western parts of the Balkan Peninsula and western Turkey. In these regions, significant precipitation is expected to occur on an almost daily basis during the forecast period. Locally, the total amount of precipitation could exceed the longterm average by more than 150 mm. Very scarce precipitation is expected in northern and north-eastern Europe, northern Germany, northern France, the Baltic countries, Benelux and eastern Turkey.
Temperature Forecast
Warmer-than-average conditions are forecast for the Balkan Peninsula and regions around the Black Sea. Average daily air temperatures over coastal regions around the Black Sea are expected to exceed the long-term average by 4-8 • C. Consequently, the cumulated active temperature (Tbase=O °C) could exceed the longterm average by more than 50 growing degree days . Other parts of Europe will experience colder-thanaverage conditions. The strongest temperature anomaly is expected in the Baltic countries, western Russia, northern Poland, southern Scandinavia and the Benelux countries. More than six cold days with minimum air temperatures of less than -18 • C are expected to occur over parts of north and north-eastern Europe. In the next few days and at the end of the forecast period, the minimum temperature is expected to drop below -18 'C in parts of central Europe (southern Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland)
January 2013
Source: MARS BULLETIN – EC - JRC
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