USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed
25 January 2013
USDA GAIN: Philippines Grain and Feed Update - January 2013
Typhoon Bopha (Local Code: Pablo) passed through the southern Philippines in early December 2012,
damaging 35,000 hectares of corn farms and 28,000 hectares of rice lands on Mindanao island,
according to a preliminary report from the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA). The same report
estimates corn and paddy rice losses at 77,000 MT and 17,000 MT, respectively. Post estimates corn
losses as a result of the typhoon at 135,000 MT, almost double the preliminary DA estimate. In
addition, an estimated 20,000 MT of milled rice stocks were spoiled due to the typhoon. Rice imports
in MY12/13 are expected to remain at 1.5 million MT due to good production, while corn imports were
raised (by 85,000 MT) and expected to reach 185,000 MT during the year.
Wheat
No change from 10/29/12 update.
Corn
MY12/13 corn production was pared down due to crop losses in Mindanao island brought about by typhoon Bopha. According to a preliminary report (as of Dec. 11, 2012) from the Philippine DA, Bopha affected 35,000 hectares of corn resulting in an estimated loss of 77,000 MT. Post estimates corn losses at 135,000 MT, almost double the DA estimate, as further analysis confirmed the main corn crop in Mindanao island was severely damaged.
Because of the decreased corn output, imports in MY12/13 and TY12/13 were raised to 185,000.
Rice
Downward revisions were also made to MY12/13 rice output due typhoon Bopha damages. An estimated 28,000 hectares of rice lands were affected by the typhoon resulting in losses of about 17,000 MT of paddy, according to the DA report.
Typhoon Bopha also resulted in spoilage losses of an estimated 20,000 MT of milled rice stocks. Hence, consumption for MY12/13 was slightly raised. Rice imports in MY12/13, however, are expected to remain at 1.5 million MT due to increased production compared to the MY11/12 level.
As a matter of government policy, a 90-day national rice buffer stock entering the third quarter of each year should be maintained. Of this desired stock level, 30 days worth of rice stocks should be in government warehouses. Milled rice stocks are expected to decline to very low levels in MY12/13. At an estimated national daily rice requirement of 34,000 MT, ending rice stocks in MY12/13 would be sufficient for around 40 days.
January 2013
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